JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Impressive outbreak thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 shear, height falls, and strong forcing are lacking. We need a squall line to develop a good cold pool to sustain the updrafts or this event will look a lot like last week. one is already ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Man NY state is getting rocked! Billowing cumulus is developing over our area as we speak. There is nothing stopping these storms now especially with all the factors I'n place. If shear increases a tornado or two cannot be ruled out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 one is already ongoing No sustained cold pool yet..he makes a good point. Getting a cold pool developed can seriously help sustain storms even with a lack of better shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 one is already ongoing Looks to pass north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 No sustained cold pool yet..he makes a good point. Getting a cold pool developed can seriously help sustain storms even with a lack of better shear. I was talking about the squall line. If you look back a page or two, HM think we should easily get a good cold pool out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks to pass north of the area. It should fill in more to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm watch just issued for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks to pass north of the area. These types of systems tend to drop south or develop southwestern updrafts and move towards higher instability..which happens to be over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm watch just issued for everybody yep, until 10pm. Very long duration watch box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Also the squall line looks to be trying to extend all the way south to PA/WV border with new cells popping up over western PA yep, until 10pm. Very long duration watch box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The line is filling in big time now SW of Binghampton. Also, the cell right over Binghampton is becoming very well organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 quick guess, 90% prob on severe hail, 90% prob on severe wind, 80% on greater than 2" hail. 20% on tornado risk and overall >95% probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I like the bow developing east of glens falls, looks like it is developing a classic cold pool to its N/NE, that's what we need to see develop to our NW, the squall line over the S tier is not overly impressive at this time and there is no sign of a cold pool developing, at the moment run of the mill severe but nothing out of the ordinary, biting fingernails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 wow those cells in western PA came out of nowhere and went severe almost immediately. Also one is reported at 72 dbz near Elmira... The line is filling in big time now SW of Binghampton. Also, the cell right over Binghampton is becoming very well organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like I went too high on the hail and not high enough on the wind Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (5%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (50%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm watch just issued for everybody Good news and nice line setting from Northern PA into Southern NY State moving SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Notice how much slower the line is moving over PA than Upstate NY, unless we get that strorger upper level winds to head south with the front we are going to see isolated t-storms at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 as the line passes Binghampton, its taking a SE turn Looks like the HRRR is going to make everything else look foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Notice how much slower the line is moving over PA than Upstate NY, unless we get that strorger upper level winds to head south with the front we are going to see isolated t-storms at best. I see your still having some trouble with whats occuring. We are likely not going to have to wait for the activity that is way out in Central and Western PA. There should be storms nearing the Poconos shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Notice how much slower the line is moving over PA than Upstate NY, unless we get that strorger upper level winds to head south with the front we are going to see isolated t-storms at best. Thats because the cold pool is developing with the earlier initiated storms, causing them to speed up. The storms over PA will Pick up speed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The entire line is congealing and developing a cold pool while dropping southeast. This could get really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The entire line is congealing and developing a cold pool while dropping southeast. This could get really good. With those meager CAPE values, you've got to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocklandwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks like something popped up coming off Westchester into the LI Sound heading toward the North Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice long line developing. Unlike last week, this one is very long and not isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 With those meager CAPE values, you've got to be kidding me. Yeah man..they have almost no chance of maintaining themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice long line developing. Unlike last week, this one is very long and not isolated. I believe it was Isotherm who said he would rather have this type of setup than your EML/supercell setup...that way you are more likely to be hit by something. He is starting to make sense... But the high-end severe wx kind of stuff usually happens with those setups more than something like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The entire line is congealing and developing a cold pool while dropping southeast. This could get really good. still not impressed from NYC SW, hopefully it will change but all the energy is still north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I believe it was Isotherm who said he would rather have this type of setup than your EML/supercell setup...that way you are more likely to be hit by something. He is starting to make sense... But the high-end severe wx kind of stuff usually happens with those setups more than something like today. Yeah, but at this point, I'm sure all of us would be happy with a nice line of strong storms that impact the majority; instead of small severe, isolated stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Warning for Orange and Putnam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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