IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Most of the models keep the strongest action NE of NYC. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 wind/hail threat later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 NAM for 2-3 days was persistent in bringing the thunderstorm activity very close to the NYC area later today. 6z NAM took it away and now brings the activity to the same areas that got hit by the tornadoes last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wash rinse repeat....the instability is there and then some, but no triggers.....all the best stuff is to the north. Maybe we will see something fire over CT with left over boundaries from this morning's convection or perhaps some kind of line fire over any seabreaze boundaries that setup but once again we are left with a huge amount of gasoline and no match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The HRRR loves NYC for severe storms, but its the HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The HRRR loves NYC for severe storms, but its the HRRR: The HRRR was pretty good last night. It did an excellent job with the squall line dropping down through Upstate NY and into CT. I think we see some good activity today, especially over our northern zones, but the bust potential is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The 12z NAM has a squall line that fires up right as its approaching the area. Before that, there is good activity just to the north of NYC and dencet stuff down towards the Philly area. Then the line comes together right over our region. May be one of those types of events with very little warning. The RUC also brings through a solid line of convection from NW to SE through our entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The 12z NAM has a squall line that fires up right as its approaching the area. Before that, there is good activity just to the north of NYC and dencet stuff down towards the Philly area. Then the line comes together right over our region. May be one of those types of events with very little warning. The RUC also brings through a solid line of convection from NW to SE through our entire area. LOL, sim radar is weak and unimpressive. Be careful of your words. Squall line may apply up north, but down here, its scattered and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 this is the best it looks. Clearly north of NYC. I think western CT, especially NW has a great chance today, especially with all those boundaries hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 this is the best it looks. Clearly north of NYC. I think western CT, especially NW has a great chance today, especially with all those boundaries hanging around. The next frame shows the line coming together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 LOL, sim radar is weak and unimpressive. Be careful of your words. Squall line may apply up north, but down here, its scattered and weak. I'm not saying were in for the next severe weather outbreak today but the RUC shows a solid line and the NAM has not been very good this year with storm placement. It has the least amount of activity of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 it only gives around .10", virtually nothing tomorrow but over .25 tomorrow night into saturday morning. The GFS is still going with 1.5"+ from late tonight through Sunday The next frame shows the line coming together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks like the HRRR has backed off somewhat, not too much of a suprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The next frame shows the line coming together no, the next frame shows broken showers into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 it only gives around .10", virtually nothing tomorrow but over .25 tomorrow night into saturday morning. The GFS is still going with 1.5"+ from late tonight through Sunday a quick htting squall line moving through is not going to drop more than 0.25". It looks to be one of those five to ten minute events and then done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 no, the next frame shows broken showers into the ocean. looks pretty solid to me. It doesn't look impressive but there will be lots of CAPE in place, no reason why the line will not be packing a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1150.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WESTERN THRU NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091436Z - 091600Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. INHIBITION FOR THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...BEGINS TO SPREAD TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER SUPPORT...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG INLAND ADVANCING LAKE BREEZES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO... INCREASING THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /25-35 KT/...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENSUE...LEADING TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 I'd like to make a bet with Trials today, if we get at least one Severe Thunderstorm warning somewhere in our region today he doesn't post for a week and if we don't, I won't post for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The shear is greatly lacking as is the best forcing and/or greater height falls until later tonight. The 0-6km and effective bulk shear parameters increase later in the evening. If we can get convection to ride the periphery of the better shear and kinematic support as it moves south, we may be able to get some strong/severe storms in the area. That being said, the greater threat is definitely to our north over New York State and Western New England where there is strong instability juxtaposed with stronger shear and wind fields by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I really hope we do a get a severe thunderstorm threat going today around the tristate area just to get some excitement it has been sooo boring lately.....I mean there is a lot of cape/instability we just need something to light the fuse today and everybody to get into the action, fingers crossed haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA / CNTRL-SERN NY / FAR NWRN NJ / SRN VT / WRN MA / NWRN CT CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 091533Z - 091630Z A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FROM SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK--DRIVEN BY A MORE PROBABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT--WILL BE FORTHCOMING AT THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED. ..SMITH.. 06/09/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... PBZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 lots of wind damage coming to those northern regions today. Power companies are going to be busy while we roast and watch the earth continue to crack and dry out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Excellent, that should put most if not all of northern NJ in the 30% risk zone with Warren, Sussex and perhaps even my county in a moderate 45% risk zone. Of course we tend to bust when they do stuff like this so we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 lots of wind damage coming to those northern regions today. Power companies are going to be busy while we roast and watch the earth continue to crack and dry out, lol. care to take me up on my bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like those super high SBCAPE values are showing up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 care to take me up on my bet? your best is stupid, one severe warning? that could easily happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 your best is stupid, one severe warning? that could easily happen. well you seem so set on the fact that we won't see anything. How about one severe report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Can we now discuss the T-storm possibility? The HRRR came back with the best storms right over NYC for this evening. Hopefully, the trend continues. 12z euro and GFS are old data from 8am. 18z models along with the high-res short term models, are key right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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