Allsnow Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 There was a statement put out at 4:48PM, but nothing warranting a severe storm(lack of gusty winds). Oh okay. My phone ia set up for edison alerts. It was a pretty nasty storm. Sun is coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Yet another downpour in progress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Towering Cu to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Towering Cu to my southeast. Nice. Saw that to my east earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 They should have a warning out for this storm in belmar. Shotgun thunder, several cg strikes, heavy rain, and pea size hail Why? None of what you describe meets severe criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Why? None of what you describe meets severe criteria. What? CTG lightning doesn't mean severe? oo c'mon! lol hoping tomorrow stays dry. Have a 11am tee time @ turtle creek and im going to break 90 (finally...maybe? nahhh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 36-hour rainfall totals thru 2AM: PHL 1.46 PNE 1.64 LOM 0.31 VAY 0.08 ILG 0.64 PTW 0.21 DYL 0.69 MQS 0.14 WRI 0.11 TTN 1.17 MIV 0.16 UKT 0.14 ACY 0.35 XLL 0.19 MJX 0.46 RDG 0.77 DOV 0.49 ABE 0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 A little cell popped up to my southwest......was looking good on the radar until I remembered that a sea breeze pushed west. Killed the convection very nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 We have a day 4 outlook over our area by the spc. Pretty solid looking set up as of now. Will post graphics Later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 We don't get in a Day 4 risk too often around these parts. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... THROUGH DAY4 MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A BELT OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL WINDS THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...COINCIDENT WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF MODELS ARE INDEED ACCURATE IN PLACING THIS STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER WI AT 23/00Z...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. BEYOND DAY4 MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SPEED/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HENCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A SEVERE RISK DAY5 AND BEYOND. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 0Z GFS gives KPHL 3+ between Tuesday and Thursday. I haven't l;ooked at the maps, I assume this is the MCS(s) shown yesterday? What's the model skill on MCS at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 0Z GFS gives KPHL 3+ between Tuesday and Thursday. I haven't l;ooked at the maps, I assume this is the MCS(s) shown yesterday? What's the model skill on MCS at this range? outside 48 hrs bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 outside 48 3 hrs bad... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like our first POTENTIAL shot AS OF THE 18Z NAM of svr storm may come wednesday. With temperatures climbing towards 90 and a strong spring-like storm moving into the western great lakes a warm southerly flow will clash with a cold front approaching from the west. Instability values this far out look decent as of now. LI values in the -5 to -7 range and cape in the 2000 to 3500 range all show the potential for some severe t-storms to break out. Do to the limited shear/no shear tornadoes shouldnt be that big of a risk but a few warnings may come about. This looks like a hail and damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looking at the 0z NAM and 18z GFS for 22/21z and 23/00z, we see a fairly high EL, but also a rather high freezing level, which to me suggests a lower probability of hail, or at least big hail, making it all the way to the surface, since the sub-freezing area is rather high. Both models show at least some veering from the surface to about 800mb, causing there to be at least a little bit of turning in the hodographs. Paltry by midwest standards, but I think it will be enough to send a few TOR-warnings flying here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 SPC now has us in the day 2 and 3 risks. Here's the Day 2. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES...EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...TN VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES...EWD TO NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC... UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SWD INTO TN VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS EWD PROGRESSION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST MID-HIGH LEVEL SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ONE CAVEAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION BUT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY INHIBIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN AR INTO IL/IND. ANOTHER REGION WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA. NRN PLUME OF THIS ZONE OF MORE INTENSE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. REGARDLESS OF THE POSSIBLE COMPLEXITIES THAT MAY ARISE FROM LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AMPLE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE MS RIVER...FROM THE TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS BUT LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WI AHEAD OF SFC LOW...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE TUCKED BENEATH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT SHEAR PROFILES SOMEWHAT MEAGER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Day 3. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...UPPER OH VALLEY TO NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-TN VALLEY. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SWLY FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 40KT AT 500MB...FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TN INTO UPSTATE NY. WHILE IT/S NOT OBVIOUS HOW FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING FRONT...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...OR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like some light showers if anything today...boring weather day some stratus clouds are covering me right now...that's always nice! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like some light showers if anything today...boring weather day some stratus clouds are covering me right now...that's always nice! Haha Nothing new here. Showers died out as usual over the Blue Mts. It is so disgusting. For three weeks now, hardly any rain, no severe threats and my yard is turning brown. The mornings consist of crappy stratus covered skies. The sun breaks out, in the early afternoon and looks promising for t-storm development but it falls apart goes to the east of us. It has been a long time since I have seen a weather pattern like this in June. What is really weird is that we are 5-10 degrees hotter than the airport because the sun is out in the afternoon while it has been cloudy and raining at ABE. This has happened many days so far in June. Like yesterday, my thermometer hit 91 degrees and it felt like 91 degrees, My thermometer is usually pretty accurate and is close to ABE reading so my thermometer is not off. I am sure this condition applies to northern Montgomery and eastern Berks counties as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Next few days look remotely interesting...hmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Next few days look remotely interesting...hmm? Yeah looks like there finally will be some storms...not sure about all parameters and stuff. Hopefully some severe something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I'm sure there will be plenty of thunder given adequate lapse rates, but the NAM and GFS break out way more precip than just discrete storms. The 12z NAM is relatively dry east from a north-south line through Philly, but wet west of that line, whereas the GFS drops >0.50" over everyone west of the Delaware, with some areas farther north getting >1.00" I'm not really sure I see a huge set-up here given how much activity will be around, although there could be training heavy rain/thunderstorms for some people I haven't looked much into Thursday yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Friday looks mighty interesting as well. The wind fields are impressive and we have good height falls with the ull now looking to linger on. Too far away though and lets get through Wed and Thurs first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Spc dropped the day 2 outlook to a "see txt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We are gonna get a big bag of nothing this week generally. Everybody already backpedaling off chances. I just want some stinkin' rain is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We are gonna get a big bag of nothing this week generally. Everybody already backpedaling off chances. I just want some stinkin' rain is all. except for that 1-2" of rain with a chance of thunderstorms every day. but other than that yes really nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 We are gonna get a big bag of nothing this week generally. Everybody already backpedaling off chances. I just want some stinkin' rain is all. didnt you just get rain this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Spc dropped the day 2 outlook to a "see txt" makes sense, temps aren't progged to be that high anymore being held down by clouds. Thus, decreasing the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Not nearly enough. All the big time rains over the past 4-6 weeks have been well N and W of us. Landscaping and yard is very dry. didnt you just get rain this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Well today certainly went by the wayside in a hurry after that morning shower passed through so that's one day gone. SPC already backing off on chances tomorrow...... except for that 1-2" of rain with a chance of thunderstorms every day. but other than that yes really nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.