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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NRN DE...SRN/CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091648Z - 091745Z

INITIAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ALTHOUGH A WW

IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ONE MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN/ERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO CNTRL VA. A WEAK

VORT MAX IS OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN/CNTRL NY...AND INTO

CNTRL NY...PROVIDING SUBTLE UPPER FORCING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE

DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH

CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AT THE MOMENT. 12Z IAD AND

APG SOUNDINGS REFLECT POOR LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH MAY

INITIALLY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT DOVER VAD WIND PROFILE DATA

SHOWS NEAR 300 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN

ISOLATED TORNADO. DUE TO THE INITIALLY ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT

ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011

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DEC003-NJC015-PAC045-091700- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-110809T1700Z/ GLOUCESTER NJ-DELAWARE PA-NEW CASTLE DE- 1250 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE...SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTIES... AT 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOOTHWYN...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CHESTER TOWNSHIP BY 1255 PM EDT... UPLAND...PARKSIDE AND CHESTER BY 100 PM EDT...

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Totally caught me off gaurd. @ work, on our way back to the station. Saw some thunderstorms coming in on my phone, didn't think too much of them. Good amount of lightning, then our radio comes over issuing the tornado warning. If if hadn't turned right(also an ominous sign)it would have made a bee line for us here. Just passed south and east of here. in delaware county ,drexel hill. Some heavy rain, thunder l& ightning.

Thats a great capture on your phone wx girl. blue couplet is always an ominous sign. That for iphone?

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Totally caught me off gaurd. @ work, on our way back to the station. Saw some thunderstorms coming in on my phone, didn't think too much of them. Good amount of lightning, then our radio comes over issuing the tornado warning. If if hadn't turned right(also an ominous sign)it would have made a bee line for us here. Just passed south and east of here. in delaware county ,drexel hill. Some heavy rain, thunder l& ightning.

Thats a great capture on your phone wx girl. blue couplet is always an ominous sign. That for iphone?

Thank you very much! I actually have it on my iPad (not a current iPhone user). However, it does appear that it is compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch. The app is called RadarScope and I love it!

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Plenty of shear in the area. Certain met said lack of shear in the area....psh..

eshr.gif?1312911035950

and vertical shear as well..

shr6.gif?1312911114444

Helicity values are some of the best i've seen this season:

effh.gif?1312911153106

If clouds can clear before the storms out by Pitt hit, and we can get some modest instabiluty (2000j/cape) we could see more isolated tornados/heavy hitting storms despite the lack of mid level lapse rates. Something to keep an eye on. Vis sat shows some clearing out by hershey.

1kmv.gif?1312911257641

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Got a text from one of my friends who lives in SE PA with her boyfriend.... take for what its worth:

"[boyfriend]'s friend who lives in Wilmington heard that a tornado touched down on rt 202"

hmmm...my house is right off 202, just north of Wilmington (in talleyville)...i'll nose around the area after work...

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