LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Battle between the nam and the euro...euro brings the mcs from ttn south while nam is nyc north while gfs is about as clueless as lee when it comes to storms nice cheap shot. The Nam has been a bit too-to north with some of the MCS's this year so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Battle between the nam and the euro...euro brings the mcs from ttn south while nam is nyc north while gfs is about as clueless as lee when it comes to storms For what its worth, the 12z Canadian shows something similar to the NAM. NAM/Canadian would still swing a line of showers and potential storms through during the day tomorrow, just the main focus would be further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 SPC's Day 2 has the southern areas in the slight risk. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... THE PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES WILL LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN MOST REGIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL BE OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI/NY/PA/OH AT 12Z. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH POSE SUFFICIENT CONCERN TO INCLUDE THIS REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WOULD BE AN ORGANIZED MCS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm scheduled to play tennis in King of Prussia at 6 PM tomorrow night (just as I was for Collegeville last night), so once again - you can take storms/MCS to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Considering radar has thunderstorms already in Western PA and the NAM doesn't have anything near the region... Don't be surprised if we're getting storms into the western burbs by 3 AM tonight. The only thing the NAM got right was the main MCV...the out ahead energy is a complete swing/miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Heres the 12z euro output from the mcs...brings the activity in much earlier than the nam, in the morning. lgt green .01-.1 green .1-.25 green .25-.5 dark green .5-.75 blue .75-1 turquoise lgt blue 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 okay guys whats it going to do tomorrow. What are the best bets Want to see if we can get a full day of cutting in. If the Euro is right then Im golden and good to go. This feels like watching the models for a snow event. How likely is a bust tomorrow in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 okay guys whats it going to do tomorrow. What are the best bets Want to see if we can get a full day of cutting in. If the Euro is right then Im golden and good to go. This feels like watching the models for a snow event. How likely is a bust tomorrow in NJ? who knows, you will just have to wake up tomorrow and see what the radar looks like...the models are everywhere honestly. Nam is north euro is south, gfs is south of you, ggem is with the nam and ukie is with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Considering radar has thunderstorms already in Western PA and the NAM doesn't have anything near the region... Don't be surprised if we're getting storms into the western burbs by 3 AM tonight. The only thing the NAM got right was the main MCV...the out ahead energy is a complete swing/miss. Looks as if the precip is diving towards western MD and breaking up... RUC has nothing making it for the next 12 hours. Waiting game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Looks as if the precip is diving towards western MD and breaking up... RUC has nothing making it for the next 12 hours. Waiting game.. yea it may not be till noon tomorrow..who knows, just gotta watch the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Looks as if the precip is diving towards western MD and breaking up... RUC has nothing making it for the next 12 hours. Waiting game.. DE and Central PA got some thunderstorms overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 MOS back up into the 80's today lol http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KPHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 MOS back up into the 80's today lol http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KPHL My spot forecast high has gone up steadily in the last couple days. Went from 77, to now 87 for today. Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 come on orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Anybody know how to pull up archive radar? I was down at my in-laws last night on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake across from Havre de Grace and we got pummeled by a nice storm at 1 am with a ton of heavy winds. Would love to see what it looked like on radar. DE and Central PA got some thunderstorms overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 blue... weatherunderground.com has them under radar, archive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Boy, radar has really fallen off a cliff during the morning. What looked like some promising precip has fallen apart as the MCS moves southeastward. I went looking for some explanation and found this off the Balt./D.C. AFD: COMPLEX SFC PATTERN TODAY...WITH MAJOR FCST DIAGNOSTICSCANCELLING EACH OTHER OUT IN MOST OF THE CWA INHIBITING A HIGHCONFIDENCE FCST. STRONG LLVL DIVERGENCE BLO H85 IS DIMINISHING PCPNACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE LLVL DIVERGENCE IS FCST TODECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AID UPWARD MOTION. ON THE FLIPSIDE...WAA WILL OCCUR THIS AFT IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WILLDIMINISH INSTABILITY. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW/S JUST BLO 2INCHES.MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING MODIFIED TO MAX TEMP OF 86/68 PROVIDESABOUT 500 J/KG MLCAPE AND ONLY 200 J/KG SCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...ANDTHIS IS A HIGH ESTIMATE. IT IS ALSO NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS ANDNAM MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO MODEL SFC CAPE ACROSS OUR CWATODAY...XCPT THE NAM WHICH HAS A POCKET OF MODERATE SCAPE IN THECENTRAL SHEN VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODEL 0-1KM HELICITIES INCREASE TO250 M2/S2 BETWEEN 18Z & 00Z. SO WE ARE IN A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEARENVIRONMENT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN OUR SW CWAINCLUDING CHO .So hopefully this afternoon we'll see factors working towards a build-up of precip again and we can squeeze a few tenths out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 SPC removed the area from the slight risk now also, doesn't look promising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 wow... lot of work for this to fill in.. little concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 good thing this wasn't a snowstorm potential. anyway.......we'll see what happens, but the radar blossoming over central NY state seems to be aimed NYC/New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Blame me for the bust...I cut the "lawn" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 good thing this wasn't a snowstorm potential. anyway.......we'll see what happens, but the radar blossoming over central NY state seems to be aimed NYC/New England. if it was then adam would be busy deleting posts, warning folks, giving timeouts and banning people .... oh the fun times to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Blame me for the bust...I cut the "lawn" last night. Well, atleast some light rain moves in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 if it was then adam would be busy deleting posts, warning folks, giving timeouts and banning people .... oh the fun times to come Yup, and after the last 2 winters, if we only have a "normal" snowfall season, its gonna get ugly around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yup, and after the last 2 winters, if we only have a "normal" snowfall season, its gonna get ugly around here. Hopefully, having both a banter thread and a serious discussion thread that is well moderated will keep the ugliness to a minimum. I also hope that people can be mature about it and realize that we are not going to have historic winters every year, but that's probably not going to happen... I made one or two 'off color' posts in the overnight hours of the Boxing Day Storm and still have my warning bar halfway filled in, so I hope that hardcore approach continues to be taken this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I also hope that people can be mature ok but since this is the thunderstorm thread i better say something more than emoticons. The 14z HRRR has an area of heavy showers/light t-storms moving NE through central PA around 22z-00z, but definitely no MCS, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 ICDS Isolated debris cloud showers- please add this term tour discussion. I am so tired of seeing the great lakes MCS turn into debris cloud fields yielding jack crap in the precip dept. The high predicted yesterday for today was 72 with showers and heavy t-storms this morning. Woke up to sunshine and the mid 80's. This ugly pattern has to break soon. The landscaping business has to be hurting. Can.t mow, cannot plant because of heat and lack of precip. Just my thoughts while I wait for that .01 precip to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 ICDS Isolated debris cloud showers- please add this term tour discussion. I am so tired of seeing the great lakes MCS turn into debris cloud fields yielding jack crap in the precip dept. The high predicted yesterday for today was 72 with showers and heavy t-storms this morning. Woke up to sunshine and the mid 80's. This ugly pattern has to break soon. The landscaping business has to be hurting. Can.t mow, cannot plant because of heat and lack of precip. Just my thoughts while I wait for that .01 precip to fall I mowed my lawn lastnight the grass isn't growing but the clover and weeds have taken off due to the nearly 4 inches of rain in the past 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Rain has started, I repeat..........rain has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 congrats to the wet folks! unless something builds on back side another miss for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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