tombo82685 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Real nice. Yeah, the surface based instability has been getting shoved southward due to the earlier convection plus the east to southeast low-level flow. The cell that ramped up some in eastern Chester county not long ago turned southward as it was ingesting more unstable air in northern Delaware. We have limited rainfall totals so far in a PNS which are from Northampton county. do you want some rain totals? ill call in my works total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 do you want some rain totals? ill call in my works total? Sure, we will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 My parents had 0.40" thru a quarter after 8, Mike... probably not worthy of call-in or the PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 My parents had 0.40" thru a quarter after 8, Mike... probably not worthy of call-in or the PNS Nope, but thanks. Looking for rainfall reports of over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 Sure, we will take it. thanks, just called it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 thanks, just called it in. Got it. Thanks! PNS has been updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Got it. Thanks! PNS has been updated. Impressive totals for sure! Still looks like there was one (not counting NJ) "shaft zone" in extreme northwestern Mont. Co./northern Chester/southeastern Berks. Those places continue there dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 0.51" total today. i wasn't paying attention, but i think we had about 0.15" from the first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Tstorm Watch Possible MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY...CNTRL/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262124Z - 262230Z THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS COULD EXTEND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW686/WW687...OR SWD WW EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING SWWD FROM SERN NY INTO ERN PA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES TOWARD THE COAST...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE OVER LONG ISLAND...WHERE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL OFFER ENHANCED MLCINH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. ..COHEN.. 07/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ehh, not impressed with severe chances here. all 3 cape values are marginal AOA 1500 or less. Lift index is very marginal arouns -2. MId level lapse rates arent even at 5degrees. BR numbers are nill The only positives i see going are sufficient shear, and 8 degree low level lapse rates.downdraft cape is solid looking, but im inclined to say thats due to the low level lapse rates. If its not the shear thats lacking, its the thermo's. Looking at radar, not impressed yet. Worth keeping an eye on.Pwats arent terribly high, so that shouldn't waterload any updraft and help sustain any storm that can/does develop. I think we're looking at a TTN north target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Interesting little cells dropping SE into Chester/Mont Co. now. Lets see what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Interesting little cells dropping SE into Chester/Mont Co. now. Lets see what they do. What's even more interesting is to see how the outflow boundry from the NY cells interact with those cells, now dying, in the next hour:http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&dix=anim&radar=Fort%20Dix%20Radar Wonder if it will flare them up or downright kill em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 What's even more interesting is to see how the outflow boundry from the NY cells interact with those cells, now dying, in the next hour:http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&dix=anim&radar=Fort%20Dix%20Radar Wonder if it will flare them up or downright kill em. meh, one of the stronger cells moved overhead with no thunder and just sporadic large rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Day 3 slight risk out for Monday, for some of the area. Wouldn't be surprised to see it expanded in the upcoming outlooks. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... ...NORTHEAST... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Day 2 slight risk now includes all of E PA, and all of NJ, excluding far SJ. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... ...NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CAPE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW/TROUGH...ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR MAY BE GENERALLY MODEST...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off If anyone gets a chance, read the AFD out of mount jolly today from Walt Drag. Excellent write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Radar currently indicates that the shortwave may throw some t-storms our way later this evening. Any rain is appreciated. The storms from the Williamsport area are currently building and I hope they make to the LV area in one piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 euro has been pretty steadfast on bring in an mcs tues night/wed morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Some heavy rains and some strongs winds rolling through my area right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning in nj just east of Philly. Can see a few lightning strikes looking east from the firehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning in nj just east of Philly. Can see a few lightning strikes looking east from the firehouse. yep, raining here now with flashes and rumbles about 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 from the 0z NAM tonight: (ps, anyone wanna change the sub title to MCS threat for Wed?) Prob gonna change between now and then, but almost looks like tombo's map from the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The MCS that comes through lays some sort of boundry.warm front set up for later that evening. Doesnt seem like the WF makes it north of Philly. but along it, shear is excellent. No real instability, but the NAM does have a precip maxima over us @ hr 51. Not sure if its convective feedback( 500 mb rel vort looks a little too strong)... Anyhow, mt. Holly had mentioned a scenario like this today in the AFD. 1 event at a time i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The MCS that comes through lays some sort of boundry.warm front set up for later that evening. Doesnt seem like the WF makes it north of Philly. but along it, shear is excellent. No real instability, but the NAM does have a precip maxima over us @ hr 51. Not sure if its convective feedback( 500 mb rel vort looks a little too strong)... Anyhow, mt. Holly had mentioned a scenario like this today in the AFD. 1 event at a time i guess. Just my .02 -- we should have different threads for each event of note and leave this thread just to general banter about potential. This MCS is a real deal...just a question of where it goes. SPC's WRF has a weakened (but still rainy) MCS moving in around 8 AM Wednesday FWIW. http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f36.gif FWIW, MCS' typically outrun computer guidance so it's possible that these storms get in around 3 AM locally and get out a bit earlier. Would not surprise me if we get some sun in the afternoon and outdo the GFS/NAM MOS from 0z (80 and 76, respectively). I don't think we hit 90 tomorrow but mid 80's is certainly within ballpark of reality in the city. Could also lead to some additional firing of storms in the PM as the NAM has depicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Phlwx, I saw that the nws had our high as 77. Doesn't seems like the wf will lift north of the area with their thinking. That could be a limiting factor later in day in regards to instability. Just something that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Phlwx, I saw that the nws had our high as 77. Doesn't seems like the wf will lift north of the area with their thinking. That could be a limiting factor later in day in regards to instability. Just something that could happen That's assuming the model timing is right...personally, knowing past history with MCS' they can often outrun the models. The warm front might not technically lift north of the region (might get to Philly) but I don't discount the potential for at least a midday sunny break and warmer temps than what MOS is spitting out IF (and that's a big if) the faster arrival plays out. If the modeling is right, the temps will probably not hit 80 and we get storms during the morning and DE gets a 2nd round in the PM...I'm just throwing out there that the models could just as easily bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I agree. The 0z nam seemed to have a few hours of cloud debris throughout the day, which seemed to limit diurnal heating. As usual , like you said, won't know untill tomorrow how it plays out. But the prospect of having an mcs roll through would be a nice relief for everyone to get a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 12z NAM keeps heaviest precipitation in NYC. Still has about .25 -.5" around phl to ttn Posted from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 33hr nam, would love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Battle between the nam and the euro...euro brings the mcs from ttn south while nam is nyc north while gfs is about as clueless as lee when it comes to storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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