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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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it will be interesting to see how far east that line progresses. Most of the models kill it as it gets to the del river. Makes sense, instability is kind of lacking from just east of the river to the ocean.\ from the easterly flow. Philly area is going to be the battle ground as they have a se wind.

You can already see them starting to weaken bigtime, this boundry of the SE winds have done us in alot this year.

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Latest SPC discussion highlights potential for wet microbursts this afternoon:

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1731.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...VA...PA...DE...MD...NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 251712Z - 251915Z THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN PA....SRN NJ....AND THE DC AND NORTHERN DELMARVA REGION. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. CELLS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE STRENGTHENED COINCIDENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND MOIST ELY INFLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN PA SWD INTO NRN VA. OTHER THAN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC EFFECTS THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED LARGER SCALE SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THIS REGION WHICH IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS ALSO LIMITED ATTM AS EVIDENCED BY RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION. DESPITE THESE SHORTCOMINGS....ROBUST DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND A LARGER COLD POOL APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED ACROSS SERN PA. LIFT ALONG STORM OUTFLOW/COLD POOL SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD PUSH TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORMS THAT HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90SF AND ARE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER DCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG WHERE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..CARBIN.. 07/25/2011

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Is anyone else having trouble getting radar data through GR3?

My latest scan is from 1740. I know KDOX is down, but KDIX should be working, right?

i'm not having problem with KDIX

edit* OTHER than a lack or storms/rain to track all summer :thumbsup:

it does get quite frustrating to see the best dynamics to stay North, but hey, it was easy, it wouldnt be fun.

Hoping to pick up some much needed rain here.

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i'm not having problem with KDIX

edit* OTHER than a lack or storms/rain to track all summer :thumbsup:

it does get quite frustrating to see the best dynamics to stay North, but hey, it was easy, it wouldnt be fun.

Hoping to pick up some much needed rain here.

haha

really though? even the NWS link is stuck at 1745 for me, as well as wunderground.com's version of the nexrad

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haha

really though? even the NWS link is stuck at 1745 for me, as well as wunderground.com's version of the nexrad

Level 2 is updating fine. I know in the last day, something with lvl 2 was screwy, SRV was all weird colors and echo tops were all screwed up too. Don't know if that has anything to do in relation to what's going on now.

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Level 2 is updating fine. I know in the last day, something with lvl 2 was screwy, SRV was all weird colors and echo tops were all screwed up too. Don't know if that has anything to do in relation to what's going on now.

now I have a scan from 1757. It's even weirder that it actually did update, but it took 45 minutes to do it

Oh well, back to old skool TWC and Accu radar for the day

Edit: NWS PHI now says "Radar data unavailable" yet there is no current Radar Status Message

(http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no)

so either something really is wrong, or Tony or Mike is just messing with me :P

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There is a network issue at the NWS Gateway which is impacting the NWS offices and the data getting out. Engineers MONKEYS are working to resolve the issue.

:whistle: sorry, couldnt resist.

these current cells look like elevated instability, strike star pretty much Nill on lightning : http://www.strikestarus.com/index.aspx?id=40

these cells were moving east, but now seem to have a southern motion to them. Some pretty impressive rainfall totals on radar estimates. Anything official out?

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:whistle: sorry, couldnt resist.

these current cells look like elevated instability, strike star pretty much Nill on lightning : http://www.strikesta...ndex.aspx?id=40

these cells were moving east, but now seem to have a southern motion to them. Some pretty impressive rainfall totals on radar estimates. Anything official out?

Real nice. :P

Yeah, the surface based instability has been getting shoved southward due to the earlier convection plus the east to southeast low-level flow. The cell that ramped up some in eastern Chester county not long ago turned southward as it was ingesting more unstable air in northern Delaware. We have limited rainfall totals so far in a PNS which are from Northampton county.

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