phlwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 That whole line up to the north is tracking right at the whole area. IF it holds together, we'll be fine, and get hit sometime after dark, which was called for in the last couple days. Question is, will it hold together. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd be getting severe storms every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd be getting severe storms every time. I hear ya man. If only it was that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 That's gonna fall apart as it gets here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Correction, * that is falling apart as it comes here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Correction, * that is falling apart as it comes here! Great, now we have dry ground for the end of week heatwave. I cant wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 My optimism for the day Wow. I really thought we had a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Correction, * that is falling apart as it comes here! You called it! Earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 My optimism for the day Wow. I really thought we had a chance. For a change, I want the thunderstorms! Even better, one day of steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For a change, I want the thunderstorms! Even better, one day of steady rain. Problem is, it's during the summer. 9 times out of 10, you don't see a day of constant steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 SPC has far southern Jersey in the slight for today. Maybe, just maybe? ...OH RIVER VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... EXPECTED DIURNALLY MODULATED STRONG-SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY BY MIDDAY ACROSS THESE REGIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES APPRECIABLY IN AREAS PREFERENTIALLY ABSENT OF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MARGINAL DEEP NWLY FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE/SEVERITY OF STORMS...DESPITE EXPECTED RELATIVELY HIGHER STORM CONCENTRATIONS IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SPORADIC POCKETS OF WIND DMG MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST STORMS...AS WELL AS AN ATTENDANT HAIL RISK /BECOMING MORE MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Problem is, it's during the summer. 9 times out of 10, you don't see a day of constant steady rain. Agree - that's why I'd take just one day. It would be good for the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 SPC has far southern Jersey in the slight for today. Maybe, just maybe? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Got a few storms popping nw, maybe we'll get lucky. Haven't looked at any of the stats yet, I assume they are still bleak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 storm down in Susssex County, Delaware is severe-warned now. GR3 indicates 1.25" hail with the northern core, and tops to 50kft according to KDIX (I think KDOX is too close to get a good cloud top sample) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Damn, those are nasty storms down there. Of course, they are nothing but a tease for us in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 from saturday to tuesday possible drenching storms with some embedded svr storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 from saturday to tuesday possible drenching storms with some embedded svr storms... I can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 Saturday afternoon and night may be the first day to watch for area from dyl to rdg on south. A weak front approaching from north looks to drop down into the area and stall rin the area. Cape looks robust with areas going over 3000. The helicity and shear are pretty meager, so i wouldn;t expect widespread stuff but where the storms do pop they will contain hvy rain and possible svr weather LI looks to be -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Saturday afternoon and night may be the first day to watch for area from dyl to rdg on south. A weak front approaching from north looks to drop down into the area and stall rin the area. Some big thunderstorms Sunday night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 NAM trying to hit the region a bit more widespread (line) than the GFS/EURO on thunder threat (scattered) for today. Wouldn't surprise me if a few cells went severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Here we go! sea breeze front+ outflow boundary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 That storm near Burlington County needs a Tornado Warning on it I think. Pretty good couplet with it on radar now. I'm in Pomona which is basically on the far southern edge of the cell or in the prime tornado trajectory. Bad news, I'm in an RV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 check out all the boundries and interactions going on. i counted 4, maybe 5. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&dix=anim&radar=Fort%20Dix%20Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 check out all the boundries and interactions going on. i counted 4, maybe 5. http://synoptic.envs...t%20Dix%20Radar Storms blowing up everywhere but overhead here, lol. Oh well, still have time yet, and tomorrow. You make that fire at Home Depot today? Was listening to it, sounded like something decent there for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Storms blowing up everywhere but overhead here, lol. Oh well, still have time yet, and tomorrow. You make that fire at Home Depot today? Was listening to it, sounded like something decent there for a while. yeah, i was looking east at the tops, wishing we had something decent here. o well! i did not make that fire today. However, it was my 1st due company. it was a few trash cans/contents sitting by the compactor in the receiving area. more bark than bite. but in hindsight, thats the luxory of quick responses and knock downs. Always fun to see the Super PPV in service(hovercraft!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 yeah, i was looking east at the tops, wishing we had something decent here. o well! i did not make that fire today. However, it was my 1st due company. it was a few trash cans/contents sitting by the compactor in the receiving area. more bark than bite. but in hindsight, thats the luxory of quick responses and knock downs. Always fun to see the Super PPV in service(hovercraft!) Yea, that thing Eddystone has is ridiculous. It gets more calls for ventilation, then it does as an actual hovercraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Slight risk north/west of I-78 today, general 5% risk everywhere else. Today looks to be a more widespread day than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 it will be interesting to see how far east that line progresses. Most of the models kill it as it gets to the del river. Makes sense, instability is kind of lacking from just east of the river to the ocean.\ from the easterly flow. Philly area is going to be the battle ground as they have a se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 it will be interesting to see how far east that line progresses. Most of the models kill it as it gets to the del river. Makes sense, instability is kind of lacking from just east of the river to the ocean.\ from the easterly flow. Philly area is going to be the battle ground as they have a se wind. I'll be content with .25"-.50" the NAM is showing. Heck, I'll take 1/2 of that. Radar is looking good, but that has been the cases many times before prior to the fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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