RobbTC Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 No Tornado on July 8th PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1118 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 ...NO TORNADO IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY JULY 8, 2011... SEVERAL REPORTS AND PICTURES OF A FUNNEL CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN ATLANTIC COUNTY...EASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY....AND CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY ON FRIDAY JULY 8, 2011 BETWEEN 445PM AND 515PM WERE SUBMITTED TO THIS OFFICE BY SPOTTERS AND MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC. AN AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF THE AREA CONDUCTED ON TUESDAY JULY 12, 2011 INDICATED NO DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FUNNEL CLOUD. THEREFORE, IT WAS NOT DECLARED A TORNADO BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. FURTHERMORE, DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT FELLED TREES REPORTED ALONG ROUTE 206 NORTH OF HAMMONTON NEAR ATSION WERE CAUSED BY A DOWNBURST (STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS) FROM THE SAME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE NEW JERSEY STATE POLICE FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THIS MATTER, AND MR. DOUG MELEGARI, BURLINGTON COUNTY SKYWARN COORDINATOR. APPRECIATION IS ALSO EXTENDED TO THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO TOOK THE TIME TO SEND IN THEIR REPORTS AND PICTURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The guy struck by lightning in the next town over, Hammonton, on July 3rd, passed away. And I didn't know this, his father was also killed by lightning 48 years ago. What are the chances of that? HAMMONTON, N.J. - July 14, 2011 (WPVI) -- The story seems almost unbelievable, but the bark blown off an old sycamore tree is a reminder this tragedy is all too real. It was in a Hammonton backyard that 54-year-old Stephen Rooney was struck by lightning at a family barbeque July 3rd as he stepped away from the crowd to light a cigar. The party host, Rooney's cousin and next door neighbor, Funzi Digerolamo, says a giant bolt shook the yard. "Hit the tree, went up the tree. It electrified all through the root system of the tree at that time so he was standing right in the electric field," Digerolamo said. Digerolamo's son Scott was blown right off a bench, but survived. Steve Rooney died five days later. Just before he was hit, Rooney downplayed concerns about the lightning. "He had just said that lightning doesn't strike two people in one family right before it happened, not long before it happened, he said that," neighbor Paula Weisbecker said. Lightning is not supposed to strike twice, but in this case it did. Steve Rooney's father George was also killed by lightning 48 years ago when Steve was just a 5-year-old boy. The odds of this happening to a father and son are astronomical. Everyone is stunned that a bolt of lightning could claim them both, almost 5 decades apart. "It's hard to imagine two people in the same family getting hit by lightning. It's crazy," Paul Hoffman of Hammonton, New Jersey said. http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8251036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Of course, lightning strikes the Empire State Building many times a year, often multiple times in the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Before the ridge gets here at the end of next week, we might have a shot at some MCS activity early in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Before the ridge gets here at the end of next week, we might have a shot at some MCS activity early in the week Monday night/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Monday night/Tuesday? I was thinking Tuesday night/Wednesday and Wednesday night/Thursday, but I am definitely NOT a good mesoscale forecaster. We'd be most favored when the ridge axis is over the Western OH Valley, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Before the ridge gets here at the end of next week, we might have a shot at some MCS activity early in the week Yeah, we may have two chances of an MCS topping the ridge and then riding near or across parts of our area. Looks like potentially Monday night (aided by a surface front also dropping southeastward) and again Tuesday night with the actual ridge axis sliding eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR HIGH WILL PARK OVER NEB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PAC UPR TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL WAVES...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION...WILL TURN SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EN ROUTE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ...NERN STATES TO THE MIDWEST... LARGE REGION OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. A SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NERN STATES MONDAY AFTN WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT. WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT BOTH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING PWATS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER QUE/SERN ONT AND PSBLY NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. AMID INCREASING WNW FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTN INSTABILITY...BANDS OF STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH FROM CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO PARTS OF NY. WRN PARTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ BY EVENING. HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. nice call on the severe threat from a week out Adam and Mike and Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z nam is really driving the mcs potential early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 well 0z Nam is game for an MCS early tues AM. I'm having a tough time uploading pix, anyone else? (twister data pics tbe) Pretty potent shortwave comes over the city with 60-70kts of bulk Shear. Because it's overnight, not too much instability, but a nice set up nonetheless. Nice helicity values due to that. Just forwarding the run, not making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 well 0z Nam is game for an MCS early tues AM. I'm having a tough time uploading pix, anyone else? (twister data pics tbe) Pretty potent shortwave comes over the city with 60-70kts of bulk Shear. Because it's overnight, not too much instability, but a nice set up nonetheless. Nice helicity values due to that. Just forwarding the run, not making a forecast. yeah looks like it spins up a weak 1008 mb low and dumps like 2-3"+ for a lot of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 well 0z Nam is game for an MCS early tues AM. I'm having a tough time uploading pix, anyone else? (twister data pics tbe) outlier to the others...mount holly is tossing it. Edit, 6z shows no MCS and shows scattered line of thunderstorms crossing the region between 9 PM and 3 AM...much more sensible solution. IMO, they probably cross a bit faster (7-1?). I'm not too keen on wholly accepting the EC and GFS straight up given how poorly they are handling the storms in Ontario this AM. That activity may be the stuff to watch (or part of it, at least) later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm trying to be optimistic today and hope the 00z NAM plays out in some way...other models like the Canadian and Ukmet drive some sort of activity through our late tonight into early tomorrow as well...with the GFS being the tamest of the 4 models I've glanced at. Can't wait to see what the 12z info shows. I'd be happy with .25"-.50" soaking overnight in one form or another. I don't need severe stuff blasting through, just some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Whether or not we get a decent soaking this evening should have some bearing on how likely it is we get to 100 late this week or we sit in the high 90s with higher DPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Storms firing in NW PA now, heading SE, along with an MCS in E MI. We'll see what makes it here later on. Liking the radar trends as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Storms firing in NW PA now, heading SE, along with an MCS in E MI. We'll see what makes it here later on. Liking the radar trends as of now. Yup, trends are good for once. CAPE looks good, PW is high, might get a nice soaker. Too late for the lawn though, it's cooked. State College has (low) tornado possibilities in their statement for those cells too. Should be an itneresting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Radar is looking nice. I even held off on any watering today as my optimism continues high for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 i'm hoping that cell between Scranton and State college make it this way.... the crinkled grass does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 if it doesn't make it here before sundown, you can forgot about the storms. A lack of instability in our region today, and that'll wane after sunset. SB cape and MU cape aren't very impressive, mid level lapse rates and shear are the only things going for us here. Who knows, i've seen stranger things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It seems lately that shear has been a greater factor than instability in severe weather setups around this area. The instability parameters do look pretty awful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 if it doesn't make it here before sundown, you can forgot about the storms. A lack of instability in our region today, and that'll wane after sunset. SB cape and MU cape aren't very impressive, mid level lapse rates and shear are the only things going for us here. Who knows, i've seen stranger things. Hopefully that stuff makes it into the NW burbs by 8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap for the Philly area as of now...getting split by the stronger storms near Harrisburg that will travel down the Susquehanna while stronger activity is firing near Scranton with its sight set on going to the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I still am holding out hope for that line north of I-80 that stretches west to just south of Elmira, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap for the Philly area as of now...getting split by the stronger storms near Harrisburg that will travel down the Susquehanna while stronger activity is firing near Scranton with its sight set on going to the Poconos. if that line just north of i80 holds it will come into our area. But im not sure it will do to the junk out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap for the Philly area as of now...getting split by the stronger storms near Harrisburg that will travel down the Susquehanna while stronger activity is firing near Scranton with its sight set on going to the Poconos. Yep, getting split to the west and east. Just bad luck this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap for the Philly area as of now...getting split by the stronger storms near Harrisburg that will travel down the Susquehanna while stronger activity is firing near Scranton with its sight set on going to the Poconos. That whole line up to the north is tracking right at the whole area. IF it holds together, we'll be fine, and get hit sometime after dark, which was called for in the last couple days. Question is, will it hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 7-10 split commenced The rain dancing doesn't seem to be working.... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap for the Philly area as of now...getting split by the stronger storms near Harrisburg that will travel down the Susquehanna while stronger activity is firing near Scranton with its sight set on going to the Poconos. I said this would happen an earlier post today. Frickin past history of splitting t-storm cells as they move east is killing us. I noticed Mt. Holly lowered the percentage of precip for tonight. Good call. I hope the line north of I-80 says together, otherwise I see no precip for us for the foreseeable future. The corn is spiking pretty bad in some parts of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 would love some of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 will these storms make it to Central Jersey or fizzle out, its a toss up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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