snowlurker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I hope you're all right and we at least get some rain. But I have read similar text to this at least 6-8 times this year and have not seen a single decent storm yet. Persistence is a byatch....go with it. I fully agree with Blue Hens on our terribly rotten string of luck in New Castle County, so I say keep on posting. We've truly missed out on so many good storms this summer. But today's setup looks particularly great for us. I just hope we're not Charlie Brown to Mother Nature's football-holding Lucy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This is the best set-up we've had in a couple of months. I completely agree. FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 358 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 12Z NAM has an amazing amount of Rain from DC up through Philly just south of Allentown to the Shore points. Most of it convective. Might be the MCS thart has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 After the last couple of months in this area, I have to think today's set up looks "too good to be true". We've had many events which started off as all signals green, only for one reason or another to fizzle out. So you'll have to put up with those of us on the pessimistic side! Anyways, the radar is looking pretty sweet out west already - if we could get just that to move west, we'd be in good shape. But then you add the MCS predictions and convective nature, and we could get it with both barrels. I'll be the one standing in my backyard, face to the sky, yelling, "It's really raining!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 After the last couple of months in this area, I have to think today's set up looks "too good to be true". We've had many events which started off as all signals green, only for one reason or another to fizzle out. So you'll have to put up with those of us on the pessimistic side! Anyways, the radar is looking pretty sweet out west already - if we could get just that to move west, we'd be in good shape. But then you add the MCS predictions and convective nature, and we could get it with both barrels. I'll be the one standing in my backyard, face to the sky, yelling, "It's really raining!" Well then I suggest you get your boots out of the closet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 081544Z - 081645Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 1600 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -11C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 the buckets will be dumping soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 12Z NAM has an amazing amount of Rain from DC up through Philly just south of Allentown to the Shore points. Most of it convective. Might be the MCS thart has been mentioned. i would be hesitant to believe that. I think it was in this thread or another adam and mike were talking bout how the nam has the tendency to create these high qpf blobs. This could be what its doing. Im not saying its wrong, im just saying be leary of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Agree set-up looks good for heavy rain/thunderstorms. Towering cumulus developing here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 i would be hesitant to believe that. I think it was in this thread or another adam and mike were talking bout how the nam has the tendency to create these high qpf blobs. This could be what its doing. Im not saying its wrong, im just saying be leary of it. I can believe the Amounts, just not the coverage area. Pwats are high, radar looks good, thermodynamics and shear are Ample. Not a bad set up this way other than some cloud cover. Even that is minimal at capping cape values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 I can believe the Amounts, just not the coverage area. Pwats are high, radar looks good, thermodynamics and shear are Ample. Not a bad set up this way other than some cloud cover. Even that is minimal is creating cape values. Yea the coverage is to broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Yea the coverage is to broad. Btw,Sorry for my grammar/spelling. Trying to type on an iPhone with my biddy driving 90 down the blue route haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 wow 2% tor and 15% hail were expanded significantly northward in the 1630 update from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 i would be hesitant to believe that. I think it was in this thread or another adam and mike were talking bout how the nam has the tendency to create these high qpf blobs. This could be what its doing. Im not saying its wrong, im just saying be leary of it. NAM has been much better than GFS on QPF this summer, but you are absolutely right, it's been miserable on areal coverage (way too optimistic). It'll be intersting to see if we can get the gulf moisture involved later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Btw,Sorry for my grammar/spelling. Trying to type on an iPhone with my biddy driving 90 down the blue route haha. That's more miraculous than rain on the mainline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This is actually a surprisingly nice hodo the 12z NAM prints out for 18z at PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Should we start a nowcast/obs thread for this event or just keep all the discussion in here for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Getting more cloudy now. Dew point 77, it's a little brutal out there. I do believe the shield will break today. (I hope). I too was disheartened last evening to see the wind pick up in West Chester only at the time I was leaving to go southwest in ChesCo where, you guessed it, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Should we start a nowcast/obs thread for this event or just keep all the discussion in here for now? Keep it here. Those hodo's are solid looking. Looks as if helicity values are better down south, which would coincide with the clearest skies. Will post an update when I get home and melt all my golf clubs down from my horrendous morning!! (108) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Getting rocked later on by the 2nd batch, or real MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Amazing, 35 dbz shower, and I'm getting beyond torrential rainfall here now. Bad sign for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Nice storm building Right over me heading east/NE low rumbles of thunder. This is going to be a fun day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Nice storm building Right over me heading east/NE low rumbles of thunder. This is going to be a fun day! And just like that, the sun is peeking back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Relax.. discrete storms firing are a good sign, especially with clearing skies behind them and ahead of the mcs/cluster F out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 STW Just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 STW Just issued. Statement as of 1:53 PM EDT on July 08, 2011 The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 610 in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas In Delaware this watch includes 3 counties In central Delaware Kent In northern Delaware New Castle In southern Delaware Sussex In Maryland this watch includes 5 counties In northeast Maryland Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot In New Jersey this watch includes 16 counties In central New Jersey Mercer Monmouth In northern New Jersey Hunterdon Middlesex Morris Somerset Sussex Warren In southern New Jersey Atlantic Burlington Camden Cape May Cumberland Gloucester ocean Salem In Pennsylvania this watch includes 10 counties In east central Pennsylvania Berks Lehigh Northampton In northeast Pennsylvania Carbon Monroe In southeast Pennsylvania Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery Philadelphia This includes the cities of... Allentown... Atlantic City... Bethlehem... Blairstown... Camden... Centreville... Cherry Hill... Chestertown... Denton... Deptford... Dover... Doylestown... East Brunswick... Easton... Easton... Edison... Elkton... Flemington... Freehold... Georgetown... Glassboro... Hammonton... Jim Thorpe... media... Millville... Moorestown... Morristown... Mount Holly... New Brunswick... Newton... Norristown... North Brunswick township... Ocean City... Pennsville... Perth Amboy... Philadelphia... reading... Sayreville... Somerset... Stroudsburg... Toms River... Trenton... West Chester and Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 No info out on SPC yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND DIABATIC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I feel like I should of went home to Delco for today. Will see. If the HRRR is any indication everyone should see their share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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