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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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Another day of the shaft for Allentown. All we had was a quick 5-minute shower. Tomorrow looks better, though.

That's more than what I had, but there is a storm about 10 miles north of me giving a good light show at the moment. Not sure if any rain comes of it here though.

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Now, it's been dumping in West Chester for about the last half hour. More thunder over the last 15 min or so.

If my power and A/C go out, I am going to be PISSED.

Got dumped on around 4:30pm in Exton. Rained REALLY hard along business 30. Stopped to wait it out, then headed back into WC borough. Soon as I got below the Wawa next to the skate park, pavement was bone dry. We need the rain so badly in dub C!

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That's more than what I had, but there is a storm about 10 miles north of me giving a good light show at the moment. Not sure if any rain comes of it here though.

Storm is 65 dBZ with hail potential to 1.75". It's just missing my location as it went through McAdoo and is making a beeline toward Nesquehoning and eventually Lehighton, and then possibly the Walnutport/Palmerton area.

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A little light rain here at mid afternoon with my first measurable (0.02" ) of rain this month. It looks like just 11 miles to my SE - 1.18" fell just NE of West Chester. See some cells popping to my SW and starting to move NE....will they make it or does dry begat dry?

74.2 here with a DP of 70.2

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Got dumped on around 4:30pm in Exton. Rained REALLY hard along business 30. Stopped to wait it out, then headed back into WC borough. Soon as I got below the Wawa next to the skate park, pavement was bone dry. We need the rain so badly in dub C!

Wow, really? I live on Rt 3 about 3 miles east of downtown and it poured here for a half hour with probably 25-30 mph winds.

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Got rocked by 3 different storms down here in SJ, 1 of which I had to go to, but still got it none the less. Beyond intense lightning with all 3, decent wind, insane rainfall rates. All in all, a good day. Now onto tomorrow.

Yeah hopefully tomorrow will be MY DAY to have what you call intense Lightning. Sometimes its like wishing apon a damn dead stone or trying to get blood out of a rock. But good that you had a good day, mine was just ugh thats all. At least i had New Foundland in Via E-Skip on FM and TV tonight to help ease a bit of the pain away from the screw over. Lets just hope for some members like myself to get raked with something amazing.

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Got rocked by 3 different storms down here in SJ, 1 of which I had to go to, but still got it none the less. Beyond intense lightning with all 3, decent wind, insane rainfall rates. All in all, a good day. Now onto tomorrow.

That storm made for quite the light show down here in wildwood.

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Looks like today's big threat is generally PA Turnpike and south...could be pretty nasty at times...storms don't look to move all that quickly and you have a rather moist atmosphere, weak disturbance, and front...could yield 2-4" in isolated spots and some of the proverbial road flooding/ponding of water issues that come up from too much rain too quickly.

We need it...just not all at once lol.

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I love this HWO. Not too often do you see copious lightning mentioned.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

346 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ067>071-

090800-

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-

QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-

ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-

PHILADELPHIA-

346 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE

TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN

DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW

JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW

JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING COPIOUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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And our AFD. Nice writeup.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

323 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --A STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE

TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS

AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

BUILD INTO OUR AREA DURING SATURDAY AND BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY

AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS

TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND

POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...FOR AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA. A

STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL COMBINE

WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND RATHER SLOW 700

HPA WIND SPEEDS TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING MAINLY

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IRONICALLY...THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES

ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THESE AREAS...AND ONE WOULD THINK THAT WE COULD

ACCEPT LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITHOUT THE NEED FOR A FLASH

FLOOD WATCH. IN FACT...NORTHERN AREAS ARE MUCH LOWER IN GUIDANCE

VALUES...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SO MAYBE THE NORTHERN

AREAS SHOULD HAVE THE WATCH AND SOUTHERN AREAS NOT? WELL...THE

CONCEPTUAL MODEL IS THAT FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE NEARER TO WHERE THE

STATIONARY FRONT IS AND WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE

HIGHEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE

SOUTHERN HALF...AND THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE LOW APPROACHING

FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL TRAVERSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EARLY TONIGHT.

INITIALLY...CELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY

THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE AIR

AND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY. MORE

ACTIVITY WILL FORM LATER THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN

AREAS...THEN ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO FORM FURTHER SOUTH THIS

AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN VIEW OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THIS

IS WHEN THE LARGEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THOUGHT TO

EXIST. SO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW FOR FLASH FLOODING...BUT URBAN CONCERNS IN

THE I-95 CORRIDOR ALSO ENTERED THE EQUATION. BASICALLY...2/3 TO 1

INCH NORTH UP TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WAS USED IN ALL THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER...PERHAPS 3.5 INCHES IN 3

HOURS CENTRAL AND SOUTH...IF ANY TRAINING OF CELLS OR BOUNDARY

INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN CONTINUED

IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...AND ENHANCED WORDING FOR WINDS HAIL

AND LIGHTNING WAS USED FOR THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...AND EARLY

TONIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SPC WAS PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH WET

MICROBURSTS. WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO

MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT IS WONDERED IF THERE COULD BE SOME SUPERCELLS

WHICH COULD SPAWN A TORNADO TOO. AN ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE ON THE

RADAR IMAGERY.

CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING LEVELS

OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS WAS USED...HEDGED

SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER MAVS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Unbelievable, third isolated storm in a row today where it missed western lehigh county completely and spanked eastern lehigh county and easton. Spock, please lower the shields for we surely can take some hits

.33" of rain here in Martins Creek; .41" in Glendon (just south of Easton) from last night's storm. Decent lightning, btw.

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Spent an hour and a half watering my landscaping this morning. That is how confident I am that the shield will hold and we wont get jack in northern DE. Everything rolls right at us and either dissipates or splits to hammer SJ or parts north and west.

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Spent an hour and a half watering my landscaping this morning. That is how confident I am that the shield will hold and we wont get jack in northern DE. Everything rolls right at us and either dissipates or splits to hammer SJ or parts north and west.

You're in for a surprise.

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Spent an hour and a half watering my landscaping this morning. That is how confident I am that the shield will hold and we wont get jack in northern DE. Everything rolls right at us and either dissipates or splits to hammer SJ or parts north and west.

:lmao: Keep right on thinking that. You got a lot more then most last month, with 2 1/2 inches or so for the month. Your "shield" didn't hold then.

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Slight risk moved well north now, 30% wind contour added to our area, from NYC on south.

...TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC CST TODAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN IL SHOULD MOVE STEADILY E TODAY...MORE

OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH IMPULSE AMPLIFYING ESE ACROSS ONT. AHEAD OF

THE IL TROUGH...RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF

WEAK CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE LWR TN

VLY. A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG 35-40 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL

PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES AS THEY CONTINUE E ACROSS PARTS

OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK STNRY FRONT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPR

JET...SIMILARLY ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT

STORMS...AND LEE TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH WILL SERVE TO FOCUS

DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH VERY RICH

MOISTURE IN PLACE /PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/...AND EXPECTED CORRIDORS OF

STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP COULD YIELD NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF

STRONG STORMS WITH DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...DESPITE

MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES. WHILE A BRIEF SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY

OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH

BOWING SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT. ONE

OR TWO LARGER ENE-MOVING MCSS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN

NC...VA AND ERN MD/DE/NJ.

FARTHER N...AN ISOLD SVR RISK MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE ONT

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL NY.

INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVELY TO POINTS FARTHER S...BUT

MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AUGMENT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH

HAIL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVE.

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And bluehens, this part is for you. I suggest you post less and read more.

WHILE A BRIEF SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY

OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH

BOWING SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT. ONE

OR TWO LARGER ENE-MOVING MCSS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN

NC...VA AND ERN MD/DE/NJ.

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Spent an hour and a half watering my landscaping this morning. That is how confident I am that the shield will hold and we wont get jack in northern DE. Everything rolls right at us and either dissipates or splits to hammer SJ or parts north and west.

Today I think it'll be pretty tough to be in an area that doesn't get at least something.

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I hope you're all right and we at least get some rain. But I have read similar text to this at least 6-8 times this year and have not seen a single decent storm yet. Persistence is a byatch....go with it.

And bluehens, this part is for you. I suggest you post less and read more.

WHILE A BRIEF SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY

OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH

BOWING SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT. ONE

OR TWO LARGER ENE-MOVING MCSS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN

NC...VA AND ERN MD/DE/NJ.

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