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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

449 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NJC005-025-029-062130-

/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-110706T2130Z/

MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-BURLINGTON NJ-

449 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT

FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN OCEAN AND SOUTHWESTERN

MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

TO AROUND 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGETOWN...OR 10

MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS

OF 50 MPH IN CHESTERFIELD AND MANSFIELD TOWNSHIPS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

WRIGHTSTOWN...FORT DIX...MCGUIRE AFB...CREAM RIDGE...NEW EGYPT...

BROWNS MILLS...COUNTRY LAKE ESTATES...WOODRUFF AND CASSVILLE

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I cut the lawn myself in the back of the house even though it hasnt needed it even after my wife mowed it 2 weeks ago. I just had to get those white poofy things that the bees wasps go after so i can actually go in the back yard during the day its been horrible with them things and the wasps and bee's back there where i couldnt be out there since my allergy to them. But the lawn hasnt been growing much at all, kinda saving us money on fuel.

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Training thunderstorms will help. Seeing is believing tombo. These models indicate this now but fall apart in the last 8 hours. I hope this makes me a liar cause my garden should could use the rain

Don't worry, the Lehigh Valley will see training storms sometime in the next 2 weeks. I say this because I'm going to DC for 2 weeks starting Sunday. :P

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Another SEE TEXT for today:

...MID-ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT...FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL WAVE DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND...WILL STALL ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF NJ/PA/OH TODAY. THIS FEATURE...AND THE TERRAIN...WILL BE IMPETUS FOR DIURNAL TSTMS THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY IN SRN PA...ERN WV...MD AND WRN/CNTRL VA. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN DEPARTURE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT...INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH ISOLD STORMS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY EVENTUALLY NEED MORE ROBUST SVR PROBABILITIES.

..RACY/GARNER.. 07/07/2011

They say they're considering an upgrade to a SLGT for parts of the area, mainly west it sounds like.

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Another SEE TEXT for today:

...MID-ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT...FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL WAVE DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND...WILL STALL ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF NJ/PA/OH TODAY. THIS FEATURE...AND THE TERRAIN...WILL BE IMPETUS FOR DIURNAL TSTMS THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY IN SRN PA...ERN WV...MD AND WRN/CNTRL VA. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN DEPARTURE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT...INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH ISOLD STORMS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY EVENTUALLY NEED MORE ROBUST SVR PROBABILITIES.

..RACY/GARNER.. 07/07/2011

They say they're considering an upgrade to a SLGT for parts of the area, mainly west it sounds like.

Given past precedent this year with SPC, an upgrade would not surprise me in the least.

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Day 2 Slight Risk, on our doorstep, wouldn't be surprised to see that upgraded also, with what the models are showing for Friday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2011

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC

REGION...

...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

THE EXACT DEGREE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF STRONGEST DIURNAL

DESTABILIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A

MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY

CYCLONIC/STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC

REGION/DELMARVA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF

VA/NC/DELMARVA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY WELL-SUSTAINED

MULTICELLS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/WIND

DAMAGE AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

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Sure is gonna get really hot in the extended. Just looking at the overnight model runs. Looks to be down right hot.. Sure could use the rain. Lawn is a nice brown color. Amazing.. a wet spring to some very dry times...

My parents are (very thankfully) on the wet side of the divide. Over an inch for the month and over 5 inches since June 1. Hope they keep getting the rain, makes my gardens happy.

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My parents are (very thankfully) on the wet side of the divide. Over an inch for the month and over 5 inches since June 1. Hope they keep getting the rain, makes my gardens happy.

So far so good in Holmdel and edison areas. Seems like we get a good soaking once a week. Cutting lawns 2 to 3 time to get rid of clumps is pretty impressive for july

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My parents are (very thankfully) on the wet side of the divide. Over an inch for the month and over 5 inches since June 1. Hope they keep getting the rain, makes my gardens happy.

Ray, is it better to receive a 2 inch rainfall on one day over two weeks, or 8 - quarter inch rains over a two week period? The 2 incher will provide a deeper soaking, but the quarter inchers will make the lawns and gardens happy, but be susceptible to evaporating quicker this time of year? Just wondering, and I appreciate your expertise in this matter.

OK, to stay on topic with the thread: Some potential soakers tonite and Friday. Chances of storms reaching severe levels?

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I like seeing the radar begin to light up in south central PA and the trajectory the storms appear to be taking. The question as always is will they make it all the way to SEPA and northern DE? A persistence forecast for this summer so far says no but we'll see. I could care less about severe at this point....I just want the rain.

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I like seeing the radar begin to light up in south central PA and the trajectory the storms appear to be taking. The question as always is will they make it all the way to SEPA and northern DE? A persistence forecast for this summer so far says no but we'll see. I could care less about severe at this point....I just want the rain.

I'd love to have a filming chance out of this. Its been a while and those cells are putting out some 20+ strikes in 2 or less minutes so we shall see, i have never seen more then 3 strikes in a minute let alone 20 in 0-2 minutes. So it could be a big treat for me. Would also love the rain as well.

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Ray, is it better to receive a 2 inch rainfall on one day over two weeks, or 8 - quarter inch rains over a two week period? The 2 incher will provide a deeper soaking, but the quarter inchers will make the lawns and gardens happy, but be susceptible to evaporating quicker this time of year? Just wondering, and I appreciate your expertise in this matter.

OK, to stay on topic with the thread: Some potential soakers tonite and Friday. Chances of storms reaching severe levels?

You get more bang for your buck with 0.5-1.0 inch dumps on a semi-frequent basis... the combination of a decent soaking and not as much runoff. Lighter amounts have trouble penetrating, especially tree cover in shady areas, while heavier amounts tend to runoff more and you aren't getting as much penetrate as you think. Of course, this is mainly with thunderstorms... a steady light rain amounting to 1-2 inches would mostly soak in.

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