Thunder Road Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 With regards to Sunday's thunderstorm threat, instability is there and LCLs are favorable, but the flow aloft (ok, at all levels really) is anemic...both the GFS & NAM are showing only about 20mph at 500mb, so there's basically no shear at all to work with, and definitely no turning in the hodographs. Probably will be a few pulse-type storms with small hail but they'll die out as soon as they get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 With regards to Sunday's thunderstorm threat, instability is there and LCLs are favorable, but the flow aloft (ok, at all levels really) is anemic...both the GFS & NAM are showing only about 20mph at 500mb, so there's basically no shear at all to work with, and definitely no turning in the hodographs. Probably will be a few pulse-type storms with small hail but they'll die out as soon as they get going i think their is going to be a decent coverage of storms but the svr factor maybe limited...the euro is consistently hammering .25-.5 for sunday for the region as well as the nam and gfs, so pretty good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 With regards to Sunday's thunderstorm threat, instability is there and LCLs are favorable, but the flow aloft (ok, at all levels really) is anemic...both the GFS & NAM are showing only about 20mph at 500mb, so there's basically no shear at all to work with, and definitely no turning in the hodographs. Probably will be a few pulse-type storms with small hail but they'll die out as soon as they get going I agree with your prognosis. This is not a drought buster. You will be lucky to get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I agree with your prognosis. This is not a drought buster. You will be lucky to get a storm. Except there's no drought to bust, lol. And saying no storm will happen 3 1/2 days out usually isn't smart. Much can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Except there's no drought to bust, lol. And saying no storm will happen 3 1/2 days out usually isn't smart. Much can change. In certain areas of eastern Pa, there has been little or no rain in the past three weeks or so. While this is not an official drought- rainfall is deficient and is sorely needed. Any storms this weekend are not heavy rainfall or training thunderstorm producers- drought busters. Again I never stated there was not going to be a storm- I was wishing them luck for a storm since any storm would tend to be isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I'd be shocked to get over 0.20" on Sunday from any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I'd be shocked to get over 0.20" on Sunday from any storms. You might get >1.00" or you might get a Mr. Blutarsky. Just because the average of the max rainfall and 0 ends up either being 0.25" or 0.50" doesn't mean that if you don't get at least 0.25" it's a bust. That's why looking at a model with coarse resolution like the GFS leads to so many broken hearts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 In certain areas of eastern Pa, there has been little or no rain in the past three weeks or so. While this is not an official drought- rainfall is deficient and is sorely needed. Any storms this weekend are not heavy rainfall or training thunderstorm producers- drought busters. Again I never stated there was not going to be a storm- I was wishing them luck for a storm since any storm would tend to be isolated. The PW values are forecast to be near 2.0 inches on Sunday, therefore any storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. This looks to be more localized and not widespread. It is still looking like the strongest wind fields remain north of our area, but the forecast soundings show 20-30 knots in the mid and upper levels Sunday afternoon and evening. This is not ideal for severe convection, however I would not rule out some pulse type severe storms especially given the amount of instability forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The PW values are forecast to be near 2.0 inches on Sunday, therefore any storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. This looks to be more localized and not widespread. It is still looking like the strongest wind fields remain north of our area, but the forecast soundings show 20-30 knots in the mid and upper levels Sunday afternoon and evening. This is not ideal for severe convection, however I would not rule out some pulse type severe storms especially given the amount of instability forecast. Coming from you Mike, a ray of sunshine or in our case a drop of liquid gold. I like those probabilities and I hope they come to fruition. The corn in the western Lehigh Valley is spiking- could use some water. What I like about this forecast is that it reminds me of my childhood where you could get two inches of rain from an afternoon thunderstorm and playing boats in the street gutter because it is a warm rain. I am just curious- how many of us weather enthusiasts and professionals played boats in the street gutter when growing up because we enjoyed being in the warm afternoon rain and seeing a thunderstorm and rainbow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 You might get >1.00" or you might get a Mr. Blutarsky. Just because the average of the max rainfall and 0 ends up either being 0.25" or 0.50" doesn't mean that if you don't get at least 0.25" it's a bust. That's why looking at a model with coarse resolution like the GFS leads to so many broken hearts True. I'm not even talking about the models, just rolling my dice based on the past month or two. Anything over a 1/4" of rain in any event. whether stratiform or thunderstorm I consider I surprise at this time of year......just like last summer. Watch, come October, I'll get 11 inches of rain again in 36 hours like in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Coming from you Mike, a ray of sunshine or in our case a drop of liquid gold. I like those probabilities and I hope they come to fruition. The corn in the western Lehigh Valley is spiking- could use some water. What I like about this forecast is that it reminds me of my childhood where you could get two inches of rain from an afternoon thunderstorm and playing boats in the street gutter because it is a warm rain. I am just curious- how many of us weather enthusiasts and professionals played boats in the street gutter when growing up because we enjoyed being in the warm afternoon rain and seeing a thunderstorm and rainbow? I think like many of us here, my yard definitely needs rain. I am a bit concerned regarding the coverage of the convection on Sunday. Some of the guidance is suggesting a line develops and then moves southeastward. Given the way the ridge is arriving later Saturday, I am wondering if an MCS of sorts fires in the Great Lakes and then moves our way Saturday night into Sunday. I am not sold on that idea completely yet, mainly because the movement of the ridge and its orientation as the cold front approaches from the northwest. And to answer your question, I never played boats in the street gutter but I did walk through the 'warm water' in poor drainage areas as a kid following thunderstorm downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I think like many of us here, my yard definitely needs rain. I am a bit concerned regarding the coverage of the convection on Sunday. Some of the guidance is suggesting a line develops and then moves southeastward. Given the way the ridge is arriving later Saturday, I am wondering if an MCS of sorts fires in the Great Lakes and then moves our way Saturday night into Sunday. I am not sold on that idea completely yet, mainly because the movement of the ridge and its orientation as the cold front approaches from the northwest. And to answer your question, I never played boats in the street gutter but I did walk through the 'warm water' in poor drainage areas as a kid following thunderstorm downpours. I did that too. I guess all weathermen have their calling. I am the same way when it comes to a heavy snow event--wait until the first flake falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Day 2 see text for our area. ...NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MOIST SECTOR SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES WILL BE RELEGATED TO EASTERN CANADA/ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND...VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE WEAK WITH 500 MB FLOW GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15-20 KT. FURTHERMORE...THE EXACT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...A PULSE-TYPE/MODESTLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DOWNBURSTS/ MAY EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 It would not surprise me, given how the SPC has handled things this year, to see parts of the area go Slight Risk tomorrow at some point. They've bumped parts of our area from "see text" to slight on day 1 on three separate occasions so far this year. It's not an ideal setup for severe but I think there's enough there to see them do a day of bump. As an aside, not too keen of how the SPC has treated this area this year with regards to risks...the midday bumps from see text to slight risk can be confusing for the public...either pull the trigger on a slight risk in the initial day 1 forecast or leave us in a see text all day. It's one thing to go from slight to moderate (or down from moderate to slight) but to go from nothing to slight doesn't help the public when you're communicating storm risk. Granted none of those situations were textbook slight risk days but if it is a borderline call err on the safe side and go slight risk from the get go and stay consistent with it. Just my .02 on the subject...not that my opinion matters to the SPC but it's a bit annoying to see them say "see text" in the AM or even a 5% without the see text only to bump it later in the day when it's pretty clear there's a borderline shot at severe from the get go. As to the assertion we're not under a drought...while we're not technically in a drought it hasn't exactly been a rainfall feast of late throughout the region. Taking out the storms on June 16th/17th and Philly ran at about a third of normal on rainfall in June. It's been quite dry of late for most...not all folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 It would not surprise me, given how the SPC has handled things this year, to see parts of the area go Slight Risk tomorrow at some point. They've bumped parts of our area from "see text" to slight on day 1 on three separate occasions so far this year. It's not an ideal setup for severe but I think there's enough there to see them do a day of bump. As an aside, not too keen of how the SPC has treated this area this year with regards to risks...the midday bumps from see text to slight risk can be confusing for the public...either pull the trigger on a slight risk in the initial day 1 forecast or leave us in a see text all day. It's one thing to go from slight to moderate (or down from moderate to slight) but to go from nothing to slight doesn't help the public when you're communicating storm risk. Granted none of those situations were textbook slight risk days but if it is a borderline call err on the safe side and go slight risk from the get go and stay consistent with it. Just my .02 on the subject...not that my opinion matters to the SPC but it's a bit annoying to see them say "see text" in the AM or even a 5% without the see text only to bump it later in the day when it's pretty clear there's a borderline shot at severe from the get go. As to the assertion we're not under a drought...while we're not technically in a drought it hasn't exactly been a rainfall feast of late throughout the region. Taking out the storms on June 16th/17th and Philly ran at about a third of normal on rainfall in June. It's been quite dry of late for most...not all folks. I understand what your saying, but how much of the public know anything about 'risks' for severe thunderstorms? It's a such a small amount of people and the NWS, atleast ours, handles storm threats better then the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 I understand what your saying, but how much of the public know anything about 'risks' for severe thunderstorms? It's a such a small amount of people and the NWS, atleast ours, handles storm threats better then the SPC. Mount Holly > SPC -- I definitely agree with that...but Mount Holly doesn't create risk areas that are communicated out to the public. Those risk areas are communicated to the public on TV (cute graphics and all) and people focus on that and know there's a chance of a severe storm. I know some mets (Schwartz) will go outside the box and talk up potential if there isn't a risk but most TV types around here follow the SPC calls pretty close to verbatim. While not many know the criteria difference between slight, moderate, and high...they do know slight risk = some potential for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Mount Holly > SPC -- I definitely agree with that...but Mount Holly doesn't create risk areas that are communicated out to the public. Those risk areas are communicated to the public on TV (cute graphics and all) and people focus on that and know there's a chance of a severe storm. I know some mets (Schwartz) will go outside the box and talk up potential if there isn't a risk but most TV types around here follow the SPC calls pretty close to verbatim. While not many know the criteria difference between slight, moderate, and high...they do know slight risk = some potential for severe. As mentioned by ParanormalWx, SPC's risk outlooks aren't really intended for the public, they're intended for meteorologists. Only their watch boxes are truly intended for the public. That said, yes the wording of "slight risk", "moderate risk" and "high risk" can be confusing to the public... but of course, its not really for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 started to rain unexpected...thought the threat was more tomorrow but looks like more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 started to rain unexpected...thought the threat was more tomorrow but looks like more to come The rain is welcomed for our farmers in western Lehigh County. Thunderstorms on the way for tonight. The lawns will green up again after tonight. Hopefully 1" plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Storms out in CPA are actually quite impressive. Going to bed now, I hope I don't miss a good show. KCCX has radar estimates of 2.75" in the last hour, and 3.89" storm total in at least one spot. Hopefully the LV gets their training thunderstorms later on, and maybe we'll even cash in towards daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Some nasty storms dropping our way...could have some very heavy rain soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 We had some heavy downpours and wall-rattling thunder btwn 6-7AM this morning. Looks like we might get another shower arc down over us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 The SE PA donut hole of rain continues...just a few drops of rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 The SE PA donut hole of rain continues...just a few drops of rain overnight. The Ground here is barely wet from the rain my wife says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 What a way to wake up...to a massive downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 0.16 in the bucket from overnight sounded like alot more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 The Ground here is barely wet from the rain my wife says. Yeah, It really is crazy how we get missed here so often. I cannot remember the last time we had a thunderstorm with a good downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 0.01" this AM. Sunny here - CAPE starting to build Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Picked up a total of 0.58" from all storms this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 small hail (pea sized per my daughter) in Bethlehem. Heavy thunderstorm in Martins Creek, Northampton County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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