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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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The stream behind the house was partly out of its banks, but otherwise, they didn't see anything.

Good to know as we did have a flood advisory out for Mercer County. We did get some wind damage reports from the county however. Glad to hear no damage at your parents.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

340 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-

060>062-067>071-271945-

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-

QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-

MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-

CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-

ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

340 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN

DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW

JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW

JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND

SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESENT THE DUAL THREAT OF

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS

IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN

POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA, THE GREATER THREAT

FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE

FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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Nice write up by Tony, in reference to Tuesday's possible thunderstorm event.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE CONVECTIVELY AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVE DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

MODEL TIMING TRENDS FROM LATE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN EDGING MORE AND

MORE TO THIS DAY.

PRIOR TO THAT, SHORT WAVE REMNANTS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL

COME CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST

SOUNDINGS THOUGH REMAIN PRETTY DRY WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP BARELY

BEING REACHED IF AT ALL. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST NORTH

AND AFTER COLLAB WITH LWX AND AKQ REMOVED POPS FROM DELMARVA.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY A BAY BREEZE IN

THAT REGION. AS PER THE CAN RGEM WE SUPPOSE THE INTERACTION

BETWEEN THE TWO MIGHT POOL DEW POINTS MORE THAN WE EXPECT AND JUST

GIVE THE CONVECTION THAT EXTRA NUDGE. WE SEE THIS NORMALLY DEEPER

IN THE SUMMER SEASON THAN CURRENTLY. THIS IS OUR LOW CONFIDENCE

LOCATION OF THE DAY. BASED ON FULL SUN MACROS AND FCST 850MB TEMPS

GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE.

A DRY MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST AS WE ARE EXPECTING ANY WAA INDUCED

OR LEFTOVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 10Z ON

TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE RETURN FLOW

AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS AN OCEANIC AND BAY CONTRIBUTION

DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.

THE METEOROLOGICALLY INTERESTING DAY REMAINS TUESDAY WITH ITS

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL THREATS. SREF FORECAST PWATS ARE SET TO RISE TO

AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THE FORECAST SOUNDING WINDS WHILE NOT ROBUST

WOULD INDICATE FORWARD PROGRESSING CELLS. OUR CWA HAS BEEN A TALE

OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS WITH PCPN OF LATE AS THE ONE HOURLY FFG

IS UNSEASONABLY LOW IN NORTHERN NJ BUT HITTING THE CEILING (CAN

NOT GET MUCH HIGHER) IN THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

REGARDLESS HEAVY RAIN (EVEN IF ITS OF SHORTER DURATION) IS LIKELY

WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THE SEVERE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, SREF FCST BULK SHEAR (20-30KTS)

AND ITS SVR TSTM POPS ARE FAIRLY VANILLA, KIND OF AVERAGE FOR

LATE JUNE. THE GFS HAS THE MOST ROBUST SOLUTION AS ITS FCSTG MID

TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS AT THE SFC, LEAVES MORE OF THE OKLAHOMA

EML IN TACT AND HAS THE STRONGEST TRIPLE POINT LOW TO INCREASE

FORECAST 1KM HELICITY VALUES AND SHEAR IN GENERAL. THE GFS

ENSEMBLE MEAN IS WEAKER BUT NOT BY MUCH. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW

TUESDAY EVOLVES, IF CLOUDS AND DEBRIS GET IN THE WAY OR SLOW US

DOWN AND HOW THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES. BECAUSE NEITHER THE

FORECAST CAPES OR SHEAR AT THIS POINT ARE THAT ROBUST, THIS WOULD

PROBABLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO

STRONGER OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE TRIPLE

POINT AND WARM FRONT. SO THERE SHOULD BE MORE ROTATING

THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS FORECAST 850MB TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN ANY OF

THE OTHER MODELS FOR TUE (THIS ALSO EXPLAINS SOME OF ITS MORE

ROBUST FCST SVR INDICES). FOR NOW WE ARE TAKING A MORE

CONSERVATIVE ROUTE WITH MAX TEMPS (WHICH GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE

FACTORED IN). LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT FCST MAX TEMPS FARTHER NORTH

ONE GOES IN OUR CWA BECAUSE OF THE WARM FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE GENERAL MODEL TREND FOR A FASTER SOLUTION, WE ENDED

PRECIPITATION SLIGHT FASTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A FAIRLY PLEASANT

DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT THE

FORECAST SHORT WAVES DO NOT LOOK STRONG AND FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE

FAIRLY LOW. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS BASED ON A

MODEL BLEND.

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Excellent write up! The NAM remains relatively unimpressive so far today with the severe threat . As usual, something will change by Tuesday.

On a side note, if it's not the EML Missing, it's cape/shear. Last time we had a sid EML, we lacked the latter of the two. Tough season to forecast so far

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Good to know as we did have a flood advisory out for Mercer County. We did get some wind damage reports from the county however. Glad to hear no damage at your parents.

Mike, pardon my ignorance but...is there any type of PNS coming out on the Jackson situation or the Warren County supercell from Wednesday? I am just curious because the Jackson video to me was impressive and I haven't seen a rating yet. Was it just a funnel cloud?

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Mike, pardon my ignorance but...is there any type of PNS coming out on the Jackson situation or the Warren County supercell from Wednesday? I am just curious because the Jackson video to me was impressive and I haven't seen a rating yet. Was it just a funnel cloud?

It just seemed like a funnel and it formed over Colliers Mills(which is a huge wildlife management area). It's hard to get around that area as people are limited trails and very thick brush. Looking at that vid if it did touch down maybe there were some trees knocked down in the woods or something....maybe picked up a fox or a squirrel or two? :lol:

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It just seemed like a funnel and it formed over Colliers Mills(which is a huge wildlife management area). It's hard to get around that area as people are limited trails and very thick brush. Looking at that vid if it did touch down maybe there were some trees knocked down in the woods or something....maybe picked up a fox or a squirrel or two? :lol:

Wait a second... there are actual trails in Colliers Mills??? ;)

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Yep, the brown lawns of New Castle County are starting to smile right now with heavy rain. No thunder yet...

I am glad you got rain. Mt. Holly- why are the percentage of precip so high today when the the only cluster of rainfall in the entire state of PA just passed to the south of the majority of you forecast area? Do you expect significant redevelopment this afternoon? Thanks

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1008 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

DEZ001-NJZ016>018-021>023-PAZ067-070-071-281530-

ATLANTIC NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CHESTER PA-CUMBERLAND NJ-

DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-

1008 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...

CHESTER...CUMBERLAND...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...NEW CASTLE...

PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 1003 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES

NORTHWEST OF NEWARK TO WILMINGTON TO 10 MILES EAST OF MIDDLETOWN TO

7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NEWPORT MEADOWS...HANCOCKS BRIDGE AROUND

1015 AM...GREENWICH...KENNETT SQUARE AROUND 1030

AM...NEWPORT...FORTESQUE AROUND 1045 AM...ELAM...CHELSEA AROUND 1100

AM...CHESTER TOWNSHIP AND UPLAND AROUND 1115 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO

POND IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT CLOUD

TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER

TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM

APPROACHES.

NO lightning in the area according to strike Star

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Slight risk added for areas North and West of the 5 country area.

day1otlk_1630.gif

probs are Tor-2%,wind -15%,hail-15%,,,,

...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES...

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND GPS PW DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE

OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. AND WHILE

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE SW/W...ABUNDANT

SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITH A

RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE INCREASING

TO 1500-3000 J/KG. WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH HEATING

ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND

DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS

AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS WITH

THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

I think areas in SEPA and NJ, DE and MD are going to be limited to maximum daytime heating due to the warm front and associated LP showers/rains that just came through leaving cloud debris.

Risk is associated with area of best diurnal heating and clearing skies.

1kmv.gif?1309279984059

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Slight risk added for areas North and West of the 5 country area.

day1otlk_1630.gif

probs are Tor-2%,wind -15%,hail-15%,,,,

...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES...

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND GPS PW DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE

OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. AND WHILE

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE SW/W...ABUNDANT

SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITH A

RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE INCREASING

TO 1500-3000 J/KG. WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH HEATING

ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND

DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS

AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS WITH

THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

I think areas in SEPA and NJ, DE and MD are going to be limited to maximum daytime heating due to the warm front and associated LP showers/rains that just came through leaving cloud debris.

Risk is associated with area of best diurnal heating and clearing skies.

i think the bigger kick in the nuts is the timing of the front. I think the instability will be there if we had the timing which we don't Thus areas to the west and northwest will have a better shot at svr weather and t storms.

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Mike, pardon my ignorance but...is there any type of PNS coming out on the Jackson situation or the Warren County supercell from Wednesday? I am just curious because the Jackson video to me was impressive and I haven't seen a rating yet. Was it just a funnel cloud?

In short, the answer is no. The Jackson one was bascially a funnel cloud. The video was impressive and it was reviewed several times by several of us at the office. The guy who took the video was also interviewed and the local police was also called. One of our staff members took a drive up there and could not find any damage around the wildlife refuge. Also, the police department did not report any damage. One of the folks from the wildlife refuge was going to try and see in the remote area if some damage could be found. Basically no damage was found (and with no damage, no rating can be given). There was no evidence actually found that the funnel cloud made contact with the ground.

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In short, the answer is no. The Jackson one was bascially a funnel cloud. The video was impressive and it was reviewed several times by several of us at the office. The guy who took the video was also interviewed and the local police was also called. One of our staff members took a drive up there and could not find any damage around the wildlife refuge. Also, the police department did not report any damage. One of the folks from the wildlife refuge was going to try and see in the remote area if some damage could be found. Basically no damage was found (and with no damage, no rating can be given). There was no evidence actually found that the funnel cloud made contact with the ground.

Thanks for the response, Mike. It's a shame we couldn't find anything because that is about as close to a tornado as you are going to get! The rain-free bases are what impressed me the most with both the Jackson cell and the Warren Cell. The Warren cell had at several times a rain-free wall cloud (and obviously Jackson, but that goes without saying). In NJ that is just amazing!

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i don't know bout that, there is pretty good instability out there, cape 1500-2500, LI-5 to -7. I think its the timing of the front that screws us.

The lack of a leeside trough burnt us yesterday too...a few storms did fire but it was isolated at best. We usually perform better when the lee trough is more prominent.

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The lack of a leeside trough burnt us yesterday too...a few storms did fire but it was isolated at best. We usually perform better when the lee trough is more prominent.

Well, so much for all the convection yesterday. I think the "rainshadow" effect has expanded across Burlington County and is now across my local area. :whistle: Radar looked good late yesterday morning and early afternoon but as showers got closer the northern edge weakened and just a little light rain occurred here. Then, I watched a nice storm all by itself charging east across Montgomery and Bucks counties (headed right for me) early last evening but it completely dissipated before it got to NJ. In summary...continued rather dry conditions locally only to get even drier.:(

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Well, so much for all the convection yesterday. I think the "rainshadow" effect has expanded across Burlington County and is now across my local area. :whistle: Radar looked good late yesterday morning and early afternoon but as showers got closer the northern edge weakened and just a little light rain occurred here. Then, I watched a nice storm all by itself charging east across Montgomery and Bucks counties (headed right for me) early last evening but it completely dissipated before it got to NJ. In summary...continued rather dry conditions locally only to get even drier.:(

I was watching that cell late yesterday afternoon and watched it dissipate just as quickly.....sorry for your loss Mike. On the bright side I'm sure the golf courses are nice and green so you can improve your game, eh? ;)

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I was watching that cell late yesterday afternoon and watched it dissipate just as quickly.....sorry for your loss Mike. On the bright side I'm sure the golf courses are nice and green so you can improve your game, eh? ;)

I really do not play golf, but perhaps I should start since there is a golf course behind my house. ;)

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I really do not play golf, but perhaps I should start since there is a golf course behind my house. ;)

Golf course landscapers wouldn't like it if I played golf. I have a tendency of hitting the patch of grass further then the damn ball. LOL. Although where i went to high school during phys ed. I hit the golf ball right onto Route 30 near the blue route entrance. Often most of the students tried to do that same thing, a few of us did and got it onto Route 30. You could hear the golf ball actually hit the paved surface almost sounds like a rock. They always made the golf thing really short in time like 2 days for phys ed as the only spot to use was one section of the grounds of the high school due to other fields had to be in great shape for other true sports they did. Ever since they redid the high school the fields look amazing.

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I thought you and Tony played together.....my bad then. :lol:

Yeah, Tony and I do not go and hit golf balls around together. He has golfed on the course behind my house and I told him I do not want any golf balls bouncing off my back deck. It is a fairly long distance from the tee, but you never know. :lol:

Golf course landscapers wouldn't like it if I played golf. I have a tendency of hitting the patch of grass further then the damn ball. LOL. Although where i went to high school during phys ed. I hit the golf ball right onto Route 30 near the blue route entrance. Often most of the students tried to do that same thing, a few of us did and got it onto Route 30. You could hear the golf ball actually hit the paved surface almost sounds like a rock. They always made the golf thing really short in time like 2 days for phys ed as the only spot to use was one section of the grounds of the high school due to other fields had to be in great shape for other true sports they did. Ever since they redid the high school the fields look amazing.

I will stick with minature golf. ;)

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Yeah, Tony and I do not go and hit golf balls around together. He has golfed on the course behind my house and I told him I do not want any golf balls bouncing off my back deck. It is a fairly long distance from the tee, but you never know. :lol:

Ah, that's where I was lost with the story. Thanks for the clarification. :)

You should think about opening a mini-golf course........hit a window and the next game's free! :lol:

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Yeah, Tony and I do not go and hit golf balls around together. He has golfed on the course behind my house and I told him I do not want any golf balls bouncing off my back deck. It is a fairly long distance from the tee, but you never know. :lol:

I will stick with minature golf. ;)

Yeah min-golf is good for me, some people stile gotta yell fore. LOL.

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