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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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Looks like you will be getting hit. Still waiting for ours. The King of Prussia/Wayne area has missed everything significant for the whole thunderstorm season so far.

Yup, you are the official rip zone of the week after Macungie gets hit in an hour....I got two storms yesterday, this one will pass just to my north by a few miles....so I can't complain too much.

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Yup, you are the official rip zone of the week after Macungie gets hit in an hour....I got two storms yesterday, this one will pass just to my north by a few miles....so I can't complain too much.

Finally got ours. Just over an inch of rain so far. I am sure the grass will love it. Whats weird is that there is a good bit of lighting but little thunder for this event. The lighting has been mainly cloud to cloud. Maybe this event will pave the way for some storms tomorrow since the ground moisture has been increased.

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Finally got ours. Just over an inch of rain so far. I am sure the grass will love it. Whats weird is that there is a good bit of lighting but little thunder for this event. The lighting has been mainly cloud to cloud. Maybe this event will pave the way for some storms tomorrow since the ground moisture has been increased.

Glad you got some rain. :thumbsup:

Only .06" overnight here, but a nice light rain falling this morning.

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mcd1372.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 241542Z - 241815Z GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS AND OCNL/MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO.

15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SERN ONT ACROSS WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SSWWD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY SWD OVER NJ/PA BORDER REGION E ABE...THEN SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL NJ. PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED EWD DRIFT...BUT LITTLE NET MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED. IN BETWEEN THOSE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO JUXTAPOSITION OF SEVERAL FEATURES/PROCESSES... 1. SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AXIS OF WHICH IS EVIDENT FROM ERN VA NNEWD ACROSS ERN PA AND BGM-ART CORRIDOR. PER VIS IMAGERY...THIS CORRESPONDS TO MOST PERSISTENT GAP IN CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CORRIDOR TOWARD HUDSON/DE VALLEYS. 2. SFC MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS MID-70S F OFFSHORE MD...LOW 70S DELMARVA TO NEAR ABE...AND MID 60S CENTRAL NY TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. 3. LEADING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT...WHILE WEAKER IN HEIGHT FIELDS THAN TROUGH FARTHER W OVER OH...CONTAINS MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT...I.E. THERMAL TROUGH DRAWN ON 12Z 500-MB CHART. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS NEGLIGIBLE ALREADY FROM SRN ADIRONDACKS SWD ACROSS ERN PA...WITH 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. AS HEATING CONTINUES BETWEEN FRONTAL ZONES...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORING MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS ALSO...ESPECIALLY INVOF ERN FRONTAL ZONE WITH BACKED SFC FLOW AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011 ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 39697583 39937736 40987756 43307688 44327602 44877525 44997479 44757436 42957408 40447398 39727410 39517439 39697583

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Watch issued

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 544

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0544.110624T1645Z-110625T0000Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CARBON

CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH

MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON

PHILADELPHIA

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN PENNSYLVANIA: BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, DELAWARE, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON, PHILADELPHIA.

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Watch up!

no txt products yet..

http://www.spc.noaa....products/watch/

edit* txt product:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

Delaware

eastern Maryland

New Jersey

eastern Pennsylvania

coastal waters

Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until

800 PM EDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70

mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 50

statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of

Newark New Jersey to 35 miles south southwest of Dover Delaware.

For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch

outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are

favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally

do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... tstms are expected to increase in coverage and

intensity this afternoon ahead of cold front and along

warm/stationary boundary where air mass has already become

moderately unstable with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Area vwps show

vertically veering wind profiles with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear

which will support organized multicell and supercell structures.

While a brief tornado is possible with any storms that can favorably

interact with warm front... large hail and damaging winds appear to

be the primary hazards.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft

to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60

knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm

motion vector 27025.

... Mead

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Watch issued

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 544

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0544.110624T1645Z-110625T0000Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CARBON

CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH

MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON

PHILADELPHIA

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN PENNSYLVANIA: BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, DELAWARE, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON, PHILADELPHIA.

I am very surprised with the Front so close near Harrisburg and already had passed DC, I am so surprised they issued it and out till 8.

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I am very surprised with the Front so close near Harrisburg and already had passed DC, I am so surprised they issued it and out till 8.

What's so surprising? The meso discussion explains why.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN ST LAWRENCE

COUNTY NY SWD OVER NJ/PA BORDER REGION E ABE...THEN SEWD ACROSS

S-CENTRAL NJ. PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED EWD

DRIFT...BUT LITTLE NET MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

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Discussion in the watch.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG

WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS HAS ALREADY BECOME

MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AREA VWPS SHOW

VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY

INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO

BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

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Just out of curiosity, what do we end up with when we have fairly decent low-level lapse rates (around 8) but really poor mid-level lapse rates (6 or less)?

Also, 0-3km helicity is increasing along the warm front. If current SPC mesoanalysis is correct, it's already outdoing what the NAM progged last night.

post-1820-0-50203900-1308937406.gif

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Oh and btw...........

1 year ago today

I watched that cell plow through the city from 39 floors up. It was an unbelievable experience, it looked like the four horsemen were going to gallop out of the clouds. It had been very dry up until that day and the dust that was blowing off of all the buildings as the cell approached was just amazing to watch. I'm on the side that faces the direction of the stadiums, (pretty far away though) and I recall wondering how it went at the ballpark after it had blown through.

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