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Potential thunderstorms/svr thunderstorms Thread


tombo82685

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The sky was pretty dark to my north and west before from that tornadic cell....too much haze here to take pics though. Lots of reports of trees into houses in the Crestwood Village section of Whiting(north of Route 530)

A tree went into this house apparently:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=67+hudson+parkway+whiting+nj&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x89c172369d7ee155:0x4468148bf79c8881,67+Hudson+Pkwy,+Manchester,+NJ+08759&gl=us&ei=LWQCTrzyJIH10gGN9dTFDg&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=image&resnum=1&ved=0CBoQ8gEwAA

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<font color="#0000FF"><b>The sky was pretty dark to my north and west before from that tornadic cell....too much haze here to take pics though. Lots of reports of trees into houses in the Crestwood Village section of Whiting(north of Route 530)</b></font>A tree went into this house apparently:<a href='http://maps.google.com/maps?q=67+hudson+parkway+whiting+nj&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x89c172369d7ee155:0x4468148bf79c8881,67+Hudson+Pkwy,+Manchester,+NJ+08759&gl=us&ei=LWQCTrzyJIH10gGN9dTFDg&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=image&resnum=1&ved=0CBoQ8gEwAA' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://maps.google.c...ved=0CBoQ8gEwAA</a>

Yeah I have counted at least 13 large trees on houses in that area. One case there was 3 houses in a row each with a tree on them.

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In Manchester Twp, Whiting section somewhere, Mike. Unknown for sure. A ton of damage down there too, trees, structural, everything.

Thanks for the info. Some of the storms today were beasts!! By the way, our radar took a hit from a downburst (but did not skip a beat).

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Thanks for the info. Some of the storms today were beasts!! By the way, our radar took a hit from a downburst (but did not skip a beat).

No problem man, anytime. Yup, that's the same one that rocked Whiting. Is the office going to do a survey of the area?

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There was no wind at the New Egypt Speedway during the TOR warned cell. Management says a LOT of lightning and it got "dark, really dark, really effn dark" and it rained as heavy as they ever seen it rain there. But they told me it never got windy nor did it hail. Looked like it may have missed by a mile or two down route 528.

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Going to be a tough day to get clearing for diurnal heating.

1kmv.gif?1308835987715

Maybe they'll burn off in a bit.

in hindsight, already sb cape is increasing:

sbcp_chg.gif?1308836076411

and already, more shear in place then yesterday:

eshr.gif?1308836123333

vertical shear:

shr6.gif?1308836193141

mt holly;s thoughts on the 331am update. Seem to be in line with what i was showing above:

IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AS

WE SHOULD BE UNDER A THICK CIRRUS VEIL MOST OF THE MORNING DUE TO

CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND HEATING IS DELAYED A COUPLE OF HOURS. DRIER

AIR HAS PUSHED IN ALOFT UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS

SHOW PWATS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1.5" TO OUR SOUTH...TRAINING

STORMS WOULD BE THE ONLY THING TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AT THIS

POINT. CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW, MUCH LIKE ON WEDNESDAY, SEEMS TO BE

MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT SO ANY STORMS THAT

DO FIRE UP SHOULD MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY THROUGH. BULK SHEAR

INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KNOTS SO STORMS WILL TEND TO BE BETTER

ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY START TO SPIN...HAVING THE WARM FRONT ACT

AS THE LIFT ONLY AIDES IN SPINNING STORMS. THREAT FOR TODAY STILL

REMAINS TO BE GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

spc probs are 2% tor/15% wind and hail

disco:

A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG...AND PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE...STORMS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING ACROSS NY/ERN PA...WITHIN

WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF UPPER TROUGH. THE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF

ORGANIZED STORMS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON 12Z ALB SOUNDING

INDICATES MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE

AREA...WHERE SOME SUNSHINE/HEATING OCCURS WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER...MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG...AND STRONGER IN TN

VALLEY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER. WITH THIS

DESTABILIZATION...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT SHOULD

PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORMS. DESPITE THE

UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW...40-50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN

EFFECTIVE SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KT. THIS SHEAR/ /INSTABILITY

COMBINATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW ROTATING

STORMS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THIS

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

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As was surmised by most of the folks here, straight-line winds did occur in Northern Ocean County:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

535 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE NEAR WHITING NEW JERSEY...

A METEOROLOGIST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS SURVEYED THE

STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...WEDNESDAY JUNE 22...NEAR

WHITING NEW JERSEY. HE DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY

STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THESE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT A MAXIMUM OF 75

MPH. NO TORNADO WAS INDICATED.

MOST OF THE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE CRESTWOOD VILLAGE AREA.

APPROXIMATELY 10 TREES WERE UPROOTED. TWO OF THEM FELL ON HOUSES AND

CAUSED SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. A NUMBER OF LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE

ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

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Anyone following the gust front on radar?

Rather interesting today as the warm front was up in northern New Jersey but all the convection earlier in the day north of the front cooled the air enough where it pushed the warm front southward as a cold front. The boundary looks to be stalling now but it has made for an interesting aviation forecasting shift.

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