Grothar Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Nothing new here. Showers died out as usual over the Blue Mts. It is so disgusting. For three weeks now, hardly any rain, no severe threats and my yard is turning brown. The mornings consist of crappy stratus covered skies. The sun breaks out, in the early afternoon and looks promising for t-storm development but it falls apart goes to the east of us. It has been a long time since I have seen a weather pattern like this in June. What is really weird is that we are 5-10 degrees hotter than the airport because the sun is out in the afternoon while it has been cloudy and raining at ABE. This has happened many days so far in June. Like yesterday, my thermometer hit 91 degrees and it felt like 91 degrees, My thermometer is usually pretty accurate and is close to ABE reading so my thermometer is not off. I am sure this condition applies to northern Montgomery and eastern Berks counties as well Hit 90 degrees again today. Sun is out. I see the the weather forecasts are going to hell again for rain chances tomorrow. I hope the moisture and storms in the Tenn Valley can make it this far north before falling apart later tonight. We sure can use the rain. I could have peed more than what we got early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Had the chance to observe a multicell complex/struggle today over delaware county. Was golfing at springfield and saw the thunderhead. Impressive looking 1 minute, dying out the next minute. Got a quick rain shower out of it, but not enough to wet the pavement. Anyhow, here's mt. Holly's 814pm thoughts. A TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF APPALACHIANS LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND COULD BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LIMITED AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVERS AND MULTI CELLULAR IN NATURE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RISE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHEN PWATS GET OVER 2 INCHES IN JUNE IT INDICATES A DEPARTURE GREATER THAN 2SD OF NORMAL AND IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS FAR AS FLASH FLOODING GOES, THE MOST PRONE AREAS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE PRECIP SHIFT SOUTHWARD, WE WOULD BE MORE AT RISK AND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAKING IT NOT ONLY HOT OUT BUT QUITE HUMID AS WELL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE SEE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. Excellent write up as usual from our local NWS office. As usual, the CWA has a shot @ activity tomorrow. And as usual, it's going to have to be a now cast event. Not expecting too much in the way of severe wx tomorrow, maybe a warning here and there. But as stressed above, slow moving, high PWAT values will cause localized flash flooding. Also, with water logging, localized downburst with collapsing updrafts ( lack of vertical shear to tilt the updrafts) will be the wind threat. Thursday and friday look a little better with shear profiles and better thermos, as well as a better lifting mechanism. But lets just take it one day at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 There's actually some good veering in the lower levels tomorrow evening. Uni-directional shear is weak, probably 20 mph at best, but it might be enough to sustain storms for at least a little while. The good veering shows up in the hodographs on the NAM. Both images are for 0z Thursday. 18z NAM: 0z NAM: The 18z NAM had a line of storms rotating NEWD through Philly, whereas the 0z had a N-S squall line from Philly south through the Delmarva moving EWD. The hail potential is very limited, imo, but I think the tornado potential is somewhat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Overnight could be interesting as Warm front approaches: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 0z NAM Looks better severe weather wise for the forum area: noticably, the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 There's actually some good veering in the lower levels tomorrow evening. Uni-directional shear is weak, probably 20 mph at best, but it might be enough to sustain storms for at least a little while. The good veering shows up in the hodographs on the NAM. Both images are for 0z Thursday. 18z NAM: 0z NAM: The 18z NAM had a line of storms rotating NEWD through Philly, whereas the 0z had a N-S squall line from Philly south through the Delmarva moving EWD. The hail potential is very limited, imo, but I think the tornado potential is somewhat there. I feel like i've posted more on this thread than there's been comments in the last 2 days lol. Thanks for contributing. Def a concern for a brief tornado threat around 18z to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Sounds like it could be an interesting evening around here tomorrow. Thanks for all of the insight, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I think we might see a 5% tor from SPC either at 06z or 12z My guess is we get reintroduced into the SLGT risk, 5% tor, 5% hail, 15% wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I think we might see a 5% tor from SPC either at 06z or 12z My guess is we get reintroduced into the SLGT risk, 5% tor, 5% hail, 15% wind I'd say thats a safe bet. But if the convection out to our west leaves any cloud debris in the morning, it's bound to change.. Gotta love mesodynamics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'd say thats a safe bet. But if the convection out to our west leaves any cloud debris in the morning, it's bound to change.. Gotta love mesodynamics! Those storms from Tn Valley might just make it here by 4 am this morning. I am crossing my figures for training thunderstorms. We need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Those storms from Tn Valley might just make it here by 4 am this morning. I am crossing my figures for training thunderstorms. We need the rain. by the looks of the radar Tennessee can keep their storms, we've got our own showers and storms popping up in York County down through the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Where the heck did these come from? Wasn't expecting this at all tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Back in the slight risk for tomorrow. 2/15/15. ..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE... AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WCNTRL PA SSEWD INTO MD AND ERN VA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINE OUT. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE GREATER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Where the heck did these come from? Wasn't expecting this at all tonight. yeah me neither. my first guess would be warm front, although i can't find an obvious temp gradient or wind shift looking at surface obs. u got any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Big area on Day 2 also. ..UPSTATE NY SWWD TO TN UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE IND/IL BORDER INTO WRN TN BY MID DAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT...EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS CURRENTLY DELINEATED BY SLGT RISK. HOWEVER...BOTH SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN RAPIDLY BY 18Z ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THUS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 yeah me neither. my first guess would be warm front, although i can't find an obvious temp gradient or wind shift looking at surface obs. u got any ideas? That's the only thing I can think of, would be the WF. Other then that, I don't have a clue, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SPC put us back in a SLGT for tomorrow, 2% tor, 15% wind, 15% hail they mentioned right in the disco though... FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINE OUT. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE GREATER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. I'm not sure I see how this logically follows, since he first mentions shear sufficient for supercells, but then says convection will line out without giving a reason. although i don't think we have enough shear to maintain supercells tomorrow in the first place note: time-sensitive link, too lazy to save and upload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Make that 3 days of Slight Risk now. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY...SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY...EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND ERN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... A MEANDERING ZONE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM WY...SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO SRN NY. THIS ZONE OF POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ...NY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL EASE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO ERN NY WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN FLOW REGIME SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. GREATEST SHEAR/BUOYANCY SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SERN VA AND THIS MAY BE WHERE MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE IS ULTIMATELY OBSERVED. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Storm missed about 5 miles to the south in Cape May last night, there was no rain but tons of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I had some nice storms lastnight not a direct hit, but enough of one to get some Lightning filmed from it. Barely any sleep overnight. But it was worth it. Thanks Ryan for the Alert call. But i might have gotten some decent spider lightning. Then this morning i got up earlier then my alarm and saw a cell in NE MD into New Castle De, had been putting some lightning down but died as it got into SE PA, But i did take a nice double rainbow shot that it gave me as a present. Then had some road ponding heavy rains this morning on the way into work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Another excellent write up by mt holly: Near term: BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID-70S IN SOME SPOTS AND WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN TO POSSIBLY OVERCAST WHICH WILL REALLY DAMPEN ANY CHANCES AT SEVERE CONVECTION. THINKING AT THE MOMENT IS THAT ACROSS THE SOUTH, PHILADELPHIA SOUTH, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW MORE INTENSE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE COUPLED WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE OUR CHANCES AT IGNITING DEEP CONVECTION. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES LEAVING ANY STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DROP AN COPIOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SUPER-CELLULAR AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS SO THERE COULD BE SOME SPINNERS TODAY. TODAYS MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND WET-MICRO BURSTS, BUT AS IT HAS BEEN SAID MANY TIMES TO ME, WITH SUPERCELLS, ANYTHING GOES (THANKS HAYES!). DID NOT WANT TO RAISE ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES SINCE CURRENT THINKING HAS MOST OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWEST FFG ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE TIPPED ITS HAND TO US TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE MODE AND POSITIONING, WHERE THE THETA-E RIDGING SETS UP..ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Intense electrical storm in early AM last night with constant lightning and several close strikes - only 0.28" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 0.01" from the morning rain currently 87.4/76, which is much warmer than i thought we'd get today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/MD/VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221803Z - 222000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TERRAIN AND INVOF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 30-35 KTS...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MATURE AND COLD POOLS MERGE IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PER AREA VWP DATA/. ..JIRAK.. 06/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 253 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGEVILLE...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LANSDALE...HATFIELD AND SOUDERTON AROUND 310 PM EDT... FRICKS AROUND 320 PM EDT... CHALFONT AROUND 325 PM EDT... DOYLESTOWN AND HATBORO AROUND 335 PM EDT... IVYLAND AROUND 340 PM EDT... RICHBORO AROUND 350 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Finally got hit with a storm, not severe but heavy rain for about 5 minutes.Also hit 90 just before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LANSDALE...HATFIELD AND SOUDERTON AROUND 310 PM EDT... It's here in Lansdale (where I work) right now @ a few minutes after 3 PM. Nice downpour of rain accompanied by lightning and loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It's here in Lansdale (where I work) right now @ a few minutes after 3 PM. Nice downpour of rain accompanied by lightning and loud thunder. I'm on western edge of lansdale and getting nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 307 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BATSTO...OR 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINELAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WADING RIVER AROUND 315 PM EDT... PENN STATE FOREST AROUND 335 PM EDT... CHATSWORTH AROUND 340 PM EDT... 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARREN GROVE AROUND 350 PM EDT... OLD HALFWAY AROUND 355 PM EDT... BAMBER LAKE...6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROOKVILLE...8 MILES SOUTH OF CEDAR GLEN LAKES AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF WHITING AROUND 400 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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