tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This thread is for thunderstorm and svr weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This threat looks like a northern and western burbs threat to a some what lesser threat towards phl do to timing. Things should start popping late in the afternoon into the night with the approaching cold front. Shear is pretty limited, so supercell storms look to be at a minimal. Main threat will probably be damaging winds and some hail. Li looks like -5 to -9 for the region cape in the 3000-4000 range Tombo, I know its a severe threat but this threat has been going on for three to four weeks. I really really hope this model is right but I am going pessimistic on this chance. I have never seen so much severe weather do a circle around us like the last few weeks. I do not know when it is our time but I would like to see a least one training thunderstorm system over eastern PA rather than dying over the mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Tombo, I know its a severe threat but this threat has been going on for three to four weeks. I really really hope this model is right but I am going pessimistic on this chance. I have never seen so much severe weather do a circle around us like the last few weeks. I do not know when it is our time but I would like to see a least one training thunderstorm system over eastern PA rather than dying over the mts. Lol yea i know, making this thread was probably the kiss of death, but who knows. Had to change it from bri and ryan making those lousy threads for no storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Tombo, I know its a severe threat but this threat has been going on for three to four weeks. I really really hope this model is right but I am going pessimistic on this chance. I have never seen so much severe weather do a circle around us like the last few weeks. I do not know when it is our time but I would like to see a least one training thunderstorm system over eastern PA rather than dying over the mts. Lets FOOKEN CASH THE HELL IN, its our time we are long overdue, time for me to finally get my ass out there and film like mad get some of our own EPIC FOOKEN lightning. I am ready bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I just want some stinkin' rains. Its been 18 days of nothing here and my yard/ground/landscaping is like a brick. Watering every other day to keep things alive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Lol yea i know, making this thread was probably the kiss of death, but who knows. Had to change it from bri and ryan making those lousy threads for no storms haha, you could make anyone make this thread. but as long as Lee resides in the forum area, that's the real kiss of death. Chasing showers in DC, but not supercells by Lanco! in hindsight, let's see if you have the magic touch tombo. I think out best bet is if the storms up north can create some type of outflow boundry. overall, not too enthused about the days potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 haha, you could make anyone make this thread. but as long as Lee resides in the forum area, that's the real kiss of death. Chasing showers in DC, but not supercells by Lanco! in hindsight, let's see if you have the magic touch tombo. I think out best bet is if the storms up north can create some type of outflow boundry. overall, not too enthused about the days potential. I was sick during those supercells that went through Lancaster county. It's bad when I get home after work and get a shower and get into bed. So I hope everyone cuts me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Lets FOOKEN CASH THE HELL IN, its our time we are long overdue, time for me to finally get my ass out there and film like mad get some of our own EPIC FOOKEN lightning. I am ready bring it on. like i said in the outline of the topic north and west have the best shot while we have an eeee chance. The storms will be weakening as they come towards philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 like i said in the outline of the topic north and west have the best shot while we have an eeee chance. The storms will be weakening as they come towards philly. Even though i have some sort of stomach issue still, I am telling you what, i am gonna go after the damn things if need be, i am wanting to get some great stuff on film, to have and to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 A pretty good line of thunderstorms around dinner time...we'll see if it pans out. The HRRR wasn't good on the severe potential last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Moderate risk coming soon to our NW. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1152.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HUGE SPC outlook upgrade. MDT risk from Lehigh Valley north with 45% wind probs and a hatched hail area ! ...NEW ENGLAND WSWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS RISK AREA HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE-COOLED AIR OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECOVERING. AS A LARGE PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A VERY MOIST /NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINES WITH CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY -- AND THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY -- WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SHIFTING SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS NY/PA/OH AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS PROGGED TO REMAIN N OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SWRN PA ENEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINES WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY EARLY ON WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS. BY THIS EVENING...CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL SEWD...FROM SRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO NRN VA/WV. WITH WEAKER FLOW S OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Watch soon http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1154.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE BOSTON AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091745Z - 091915Z MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z. STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AIDED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /20-30 KT/...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY IMPACT THE GREAT NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BY 21-22Z...THE BOSTON AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND PERHAPS PHILADELPHIA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON D.C. AREA TOWARD 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2011 dam you tombo! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 newest HRRR fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Really nice cold pool driven squall line forming over NY state and north central PA. Might we get a Derecho to form ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe watch just issued for the area, until 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe watch just issued for the area, until 10pm. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ070&warncounty=PAC045&firewxzone=PAZ070&local_place1=Drexel+Hill+PA&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 http://forecast.weat...nderstorm+Watch Pleasantly surprised, wasn't expecting anything this far south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Full text is out URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE MASSACHUSETTS FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHERN NEW YORK SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...WW 451... DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NRN PA NEWD INTO VT/NH WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE LINE/S...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE. ONCE THE LINE/S BEGINS TO INCREASE THEIR FORWARD SPEED...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Full text is out URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE MASSACHUSETTS FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHERN NEW YORK SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...WW 451... DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NRN PA NEWD INTO VT/NH WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE LINE/S...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE. ONCE THE LINE/S BEGINS TO INCREASE THEIR FORWARD SPEED...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030. Wind probs are 95+/60, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (5%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (50%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) HazardTornadoesEF2+ TornadoesLikelihoodLowVery LowSevere Wind65 kt+ WindHighModerateSevere Hail2"+ HailModerateModerate Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL2 0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE MASSACHUSETTS FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHERN NEW YORK SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...WW 451... DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NRN PA NEWD INTO VT/NH WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE LINE/S...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE. ONCE THE LINE/S BEGINS TO INCREASE THEIR FORWARD SPEED...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030. ...IMY Message has not been issued yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The tail end in Western PA could be "fun" later but I'm not enthused about us getting what is going on up to our north/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I don't understand the warning in Carbon Co. at this moment. Storms trying to form a solid line through the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I don't understand the warning in Carbon Co. at this moment. Storms trying to form a solid line through the entire state. Looks like training storms setting up in northern PA. Whoever is in that is pretty lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I don't understand the warning in Carbon Co. at this moment. Storms trying to form a solid line through the entire state. I can see north of 80 but south of it probably didn't need a warning yet...they very well might in about 45 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks like some large hailer discrete cells east of the main line near Carlisle and north of Harrisburg. Wonder how they will hold together as they move east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 About to get ugly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 About to get ugly here. You're about to get rocked with big hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Really nice hailers firing up towards york county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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