Analog96 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It's almost a chicken or the egg argument because you could say that ENSO helps drive teleconnections..or at least allows them to settle in their base state if ENSO is not too strong. Except that didn't work out too well the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Except that didn't work out too well the last two winters. I think it's fair to say that when the NAO is in a really strong state, that's the most important index for the Mid Atlantic/South for sure. Next would be PNA probably, and then ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Except that didn't work out too well the last two winters. Most especially this winter, but the NAO signal was overwhelming and still sort of settled in its base state....perhaps thanks to several factors that allowed it to stay. ENSO is just one of several things, but the NAO gave a big middle finger to strong Nino and this year's Nina. Kind of cool to see such a display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 '96-'97 was pretty terrible but BOS bailed out the average with over 25" in the April 1997 storm. '07-'08 was awful too south of BOS. I think '79-'80 was pretty sickening north of DC/BWI. My personal worst is 1994-1995 followed by 1988-1989. Definitely more mod to strong la ninas in the list for us also-- 1988-89 is near the top of my list too lol. And here's another neutral after la nina which was horrible.... 1989-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Most especially this winter, but the NAO signal was overwhelming and still sort of settled in its base state....perhaps thanks to several factors that allowed it to stay. ENSO is just one of several things, but the NAO gave a big middle finger to strong Nino and this year's Nina. Kind of cool to see such a display. Yes it was uncharted territory.... so pretty awesome to see and reminds us that we should not come to conclusions based on limited sample size lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Definitely more mod to strong la ninas in the list for us also-- 1988-89 is near the top of my list too lol. And here's another neutral after la nina which was horrible.... 1989-90 I would definitely say that if the ENSO is very neutral. and there are little to no storms on the map come late October/early November, our winter is cooked. However, we have a better chance if we have a very hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It's almost a chicken or the egg argument because you could say that ENSO helps drive teleconnections..or at least allows them to settle in their base state if ENSO is not too strong. It's probably some kind of feedback loop in that they reinforce each other, Perhaps the solar influence sets the maximum and minimum limits and the indices and teleconnections "decide" where we fall within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It's probably some kind of feedback loop in that they reinforce each other, Perhaps the solar influence sets the maximum and minimum limits and the indices and teleconnections "decide" where we fall within that range. There probably is...from a forcing standpoint..it makes sense. But there exists a lot of the what came first argument, because we can't place our finger on something and say "yeah..that's what is causing this....". We have theories and many of them make sense from a forcing standpoint, but we're not always entirely sure. Certainly, there exists many factors that we don't completely understand (such as the NAO in the last two winters), but when they do occur...it helps us understand how and why these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Perfect example of where those low height anomalies are in the Bering straight area..right where we don't want them...and of course the +NAO look just as an assurance that the bad PAC can't be bailed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 So apparently the NAO is not all that matters. I'd like to bottle the last two winters around here and the negative AO/NAO was the key player...Both years had numerous storms that tracked in the sweet zone for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I'd like to bottle the last two winters around here and the negative AO/NAO was the key player...Both years had numerous storms that tracked in the sweet zone for us... NAO definitely saved the winter north of 40N...but there was a good PNA spike in late January which saved those storms while the NAO went neutral to positive. NAO can bail out the PAC on occasion (ala '63-'64) but a lot of the time its very difficult to perform well in the I-95 corridor without a good PAC. Esp NYC south...once in a while BOS can put up a pretty damned good number with a terrible combo ala 2007-2008 (and '96-97). But most of the time the stats win out for the I-95 corridor as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Used average snowfall for DCA/NYC/BOS 1972-73: 4.4" 2001-02: 7.3" 1988-89: 9.8" 1997-98: 10.4" 1994-95: 12.3" 2006-07: 13.0" 1991-92: 13.7" 1979-80: 15.2" 1980-81: 15.4" 1985-86: 15.5" 88-89, 97-98, 94-95, 91-92, 79-80, and 80-81 sucked out this way as well per the climo records for around here. 90-91, 94-95 AND 97-98 all finished below 40" with 90-91 being the 3rd least snowiest winter in modern times 1947-current with 31.2" on the season. Hell other then 92-93, 95-96-average, 96-97, 98-99 the 90s sucked for snowfall around here atleast. As for 01-02 I think every darn storm must have tracked near here because it is one of only a few spots that did very well that winter. Too bad i did not live here in 01-02. 85-86 was pretty decent overall in the area/region here while the others ( 72-73/06-07 ) were closer to average with the better snows closer to the lake belts and from I-94 on south. Thankfully i was too young to remember 72-73 in Philly. 88-89 was very decent at the Delmarva coast thanks mainly to the Feb blizzard which just missed I-95. 79-80 was very good down there as well. These were more so big se/s.Mid Atlantic winters. NYC was above the average in 1980-81 only...it was probably the coldest of the bunch... ughh what a lousy winter that was at DCA/BWI a Phineas special.....cold/dry, warm/wet for 3 straight months with cold/dry more prevalent +1 It is by far what i would call the worst winter in my life and you covered as to why. A real ****ty one stuck between a few nice ones atleast in the DC area. Yes 97-98 had no snow ( at my location on the coast ) BUT there never really was many chances because of how warm it was which made it as well easier to take. Plus 97-98 had those couple of strong coastal storms which produced near epic flooding from VA Beach up the Delmarva to S.NJ. Unsure about farther up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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