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Drought Watch for DC, especially points south and east


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It will take more than a short period to erase perhaps but the pattern advertised by both the Euro and GFS looks conducive to more storm activity through at least day 10 once it gets going. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a heavy rain episode or two shortly.. Tho question will be how widespread I guess.

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RIC has been running 2-3" below normal all year. Then thanks to a couple good thunderstorms, May actually finished above normal. We were even within a half inch of running a surplus for the year toward the end of that month, but so far, June has been particularly dry and we're now back where we were before May.

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the height anomalies for extended euro/gfs are in pretty good locations for D.C. area/mid-atlantic storms. this weekend may sneak bigger depending on how it sets up--even if not, it should rain on some spots rather decently.

post-1615-0-40967300-1307579058.gif

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the height anomalies for extended euro/gfs are in pretty good locations for D.C. area/mid-atlantic storms. this weekend may sneak bigger depending on how it sets up--even if not, it should rain on some spots rather decently.

I will hold you to this. I like the chances shown for this weekend as well. It's too early to expect help from any sort of tropical system so stalled fronts work.

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Oh, and in case anyone was worried about the drinkable water situation.

June Summary/conclusions:

There is a below normal probability of releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s back-up water supply reservoirs for the 2011 summer and fall seasons. Generally, the use of Jennings Randolph and Little Seneca reservoirs is triggered by low flows brought about by a combination of low summer rainfall, low precipitation in the prior 12 months, and low groundwater levels. Precipitation in May was above normal, particularly in the western parts of the basin. Current streamflow at Little Falls is much above normal levels. Groundwater levels show that monitoring wells are generally at normal to high levels. Water resources in the upstream reservoirs are near-full to full and no water shortages are currently anticipated for this summer. In the event that low-flow conditions do develop this summer, the metro area is well-protected from a water supply shortage because of carefully designed drought-contingency plans.

June ICPRB outlook:

There is a 3 to 4 percent conditional probability that natural Potomac flow will drop below 600- to 700-million gallons per day (MGD) at Little Falls through December 31 of this year; at these flow levels, water supply releases from Jennings Randolph and Little Seneca Reservoirs may occur. Releases occur when predicted flow is less than demand plus a required flow-by: demand ranges from 400 to 700 MGD during the summer months and the minimum flow-by at Little Falls is 100 MGD. Note that natural flow is defined as observed flow at the Little Falls gage plus total Washington metropolitan Potomac withdrawals, with an adjustment made to remove the effect of North Branch reservoir releases on stream flows.

The conditional probability is estimated by analyzing the historical stream flow records and giving consideration to recent stream flow values, precipitation totals for the prior 12 months, current groundwater levels, and the current Palmer Drought Index. Past years in which watershed conditions most closely resemble current conditions are weighted more heavily in the determination of conditional probability. The historical, or unconditional, probability is based on an analysis of the historical stream flow record without weighting for current conditions. The conditional probability of 3 to 4 percent compares to a historical probability of 10 to 16 percent and is considered the more reliable indicator.

http://www.potomacriver.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=88&catid=47&Itemid=141

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i wish that would help.

You obviously take no enjoyment in the flora of the region or, if you do, you don't mind writing large checks to the local water authority.

I'd love some rain, and I'm doing better than most in the region thanks to catching a few thunderstorms and having fairly extensive rain water storage...

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You obviously take no enjoyment in the flora of the region or, if you do, you don't mind writing large checks to the local water authority.

I'd love some rain, and I'm doing better than most in the region thanks to catching a few thunderstorms and having fairly extensive rain water storage...

i care for mosquitos less. the mobile home park is a swamp with little or no drainage and becomes a huge breeding ground when it rains. as far as my water bill i live in a mobile home park and 8.50 gets added to my rent every month for water.

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I have a nice garden. About 12 strawberry plants, 2 of other berries. A few other things. hehehe.

Nice. I've never had success with strawberries. We have a fairly extensive garden otherwise.

5 blueberry bushes, 1 raspberry vine, chives, basil, dill in the front

In the back, we just pulled up our pea plants (english, snap, etc) b/c of the heat. Now we have a large collection of field peas (blackeye, crowder, etc.), potatoes, tomatoes, herbs, squash, pickles, and melons in our back yard. At my mom's house we grow more potatoes, field peas, three kinds of melons, garlic, and a few apple trees.

We're preparing to expand to add corn and, perhaps, some wheat next year, as well as grow more of what we already do. We'll also expand the orchard to include some peaches and cherries, as well as more apples. (She has an acre-and-a-half spread across two locations).

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normally what seems to happen is as soon as drought is mentioned we end up with a flood. looks like this weekend will end the short lived drought.

Back to back rain storms here, probably depositing 4 inches of rain over the two days. However, not everyone is so fortunate.

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the height anomalies for extended euro/gfs are in pretty good locations for D.C. area/mid-atlantic storms. this weekend may sneak bigger depending on how it sets up--even if not, it should rain on some spots rather decently.

post-1615-0-40967300-1307579058.gif

bump.. not going to break a drought with t-storms too quick but it's been a bit rainier lately areawide

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