dmc76 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 GRR SHORT TERM...(1058 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011) (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) THE FIRST AREA OF TSRA IS EXITING THE CWA ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CWA ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. LATEST NAM...SUPPORTED BY THE RUC...NOW KEEPS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON OUR SVR THREAT. IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THAT YET...BUT TRENDS ARE POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT ON THE 12Z NAM BUT CLEARLY THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF I-94. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS TODAY AS REGIONAL RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH PCPN WEST OF THE CWA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER NW MISSOURI CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...BUT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT GETS CLOSE TO US...IF IT GETS CLOSE TO US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Latest Day 1 Outlook cut off the northern extend of the slight risk and dropped tor probs down to a small 2% area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Hopefully they can fix KIND's radar quickly. It still is not working. It was for a short while but no updates since the 1:02 scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Very concerned currently for NE Indiana/NW Ohio for tonight. Current SRH values are expanding to 300 with anywhere from 45-55 kts of bulk shear and now the sun is out in full force temperatures are rising as well as CAPE which should be able to hit 3000 j/kg across the area later today. The vis sat is showing a lot of stuff starting to rise especially that cu field right overhead. Also EHI's are now at 2 in some parts and that is also growing. I'm tellin you guys a few more hours of sun and things could get bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Very concerned currently for NE Indiana/NW Ohio for tonight. Current SRH values are expanding to 300 with anywhere from 45-55 kts of bulk shear and now the sun is out in full force temperatures are rising as well as CAPE which should be able to hit 3000 j/kg across the area later today. The vis sat is showing a lot of stuff starting to rise especially that cu field right overhead. Also EHI's are now at 2 in some parts and that is also growing. I'm tellin you guys a few more hours of sun and things could get bad I am going to have to agree. I am seeing the significant tornado parameter (effective) at a value of 2 near Fort Wayne. There is also high moisture convergence there. Several non-severe storms have popped up from north central Indiana to Toledo, and one perhaps marginal severe storm at Muncie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Very concerned currently for NE Indiana/NW Ohio for tonight. Current SRH values are expanding to 300 with anywhere from 45-55 kts of bulk shear and now the sun is out in full force temperatures are rising as well as CAPE which should be able to hit 3000 j/kg across the area later today. The vis sat is showing a lot of stuff starting to rise especially that cu field right overhead. Also EHI's are now at 2 in some parts and that is also growing. I'm tellin you guys a few more hours of sun and things could get bad Looks like Toledo should escape the worst of it though as temps are only in the upper 60s / low 70s there with a cool onshore breeze, unlike further south where it's in the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 A few cells have been tor warned in N. Ohio along that OFB/axis of higher SRH values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Cell merger just south of Macomb. Also TOR warned. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 715 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WESTERN MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LITTLETON...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED WITH THIS STORM. IT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAVANA...VERMONT...BROWNING...ASTORIA...CHANDLERVILLE...BATH... KILBOURNE...RAY...MARBLETOWN...SNICARTE...BLUFF CITY...DUNCAN MILLS...CHATAUQUA PARK...LIVERPOOL...POPLAR CITY...GOOFY RIDGE AND TOPEKA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Nice bow echo moving across S IL into SW IN here soon SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1219 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011 ILC025-049-079-159-110545- /O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110611T0545Z/ JASPER IL-RICHLAND IL-CLAY IL-EFFINGHAM IL- 1219 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EFFINGHAM... CLAY...NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT... AT 1218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHUMWAY TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF IOLA TO STEPHEN FORBES STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EFFINGHAM...FLORA...NEWTON...XENIA...LOUISVILLE...BIBLE GROVE... TEUTOPOLIS...DIETERICH...MONTROSE...INGAHAM...WHEELER...SAILOR SPRINGS...BOGOTA...CLAY CITY...NOBLE...SCHNELL...HORD... HEARTVILLE...ELLIOTSTOWN AND LATONA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Had an intense line move through central Hamilton County here in Indiana. My house was right at the apex of the storm as it bowed out. The lightning was intense and the winds along the gust front were easily 70mph. 74 mph winds recorded a few miles to my SE. Would not be surprised if there were a few spots higher than that. Best storm of the year so far, the shelf cloud on this storm was sick as I was out on the driveway watching it approach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Had an intense line move through central Hamilton County here in Indiana. My house was right at the apex of the storm as it bowed out. The lightning was intense and the winds along the gust front were easily 70mph. 74 mph winds recorded a few miles to my SE. Would not be surprised if there were a few spots higher than that. Best storm of the year so far, the shelf cloud on this storm was sick as I was out on the driveway watching it approach! Quite a few reports of trees down in Anderson. Elwood has lots of street flooding. Had a citizen funnel reported. Not too much here other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 This setup actually reminds me of 6/5/10 in some ways, but (and it's a big but) the best deep layer shear lags behind the frontal zone in this case. I'm not expecting anything like last year but I've learned to not turn my back on a warm front. This. Well, I don't think the warm front by itself would have yielded anything in our area yesterday. This outflow boundary helped trigger some storms that dumped copious amounts of rain and a few hail and isolated severe wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 20Z Severe Weather Analysis uploaded, Seeing sporadic areas across the country of marginal instability. Current SFC CAPES 2000 j/kg, LI's around -6. Uploaded detailed analysis http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Belle Fourche, SD Severe Warning looks like it will turn into a TOR warning before it reaches Castle Rock. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Still no Tornado Warning out for this cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Now a TVS has developed on Wunderground for this cell...not even severe warned anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 wtf why isn't that cell warned.. there's a clear hook echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Put me in SLN tomorrow on the warm front around 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 That wasn't a hook and the velocity spectrum sucked...that's why it wasn't warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Put me in SLN tomorrow on the warm front around 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Put me in SLN tomorrow on the warm front around 7pm. Nice sounding/hodo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Nice sounding/hodo. if the cap can break/get enough convergence in that area it could be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Put me in SLN tomorrow on the warm front around 7pm. As much as I hate saying this... I think JLN is better (in the worst possible way). (Okay, that or a little bit north.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I guess the SREF really had me fooled for northeast Kansas and eastern Nebraska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 As much as I hate saying this... I think JLN is better (in the worst possible way). (Okay, that or a little bit north.) No thanks. The last updated HRRR does develop supercells in NE KS and the SPC Day 1 took a little stronger wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Aww, aint this cute, a pair of twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Aww, aint this cute, a pair of twins I was just about to post the same image lol the CoD team is playing the warm front in KS to be in better position for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I was just about to post the same image lol the CoD team is playing the warm front in KS to be in better position for tomorrow. Nothing on the latest HRRR run right through to 05z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Nothing on the latest HRRR run right through to 05z 16z has the twins in different spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST WYOMING EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 800 PM MDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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