Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 This is my first time starting a severe weather thread, but per Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook page, looks like this weekend could get active particularly in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas among other areas in the Plains, Mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys. For those of you on Facebook here is Dr. Forbes' page: https://www.facebook.com/twcdrforbes He has his severe weather predictions up until Sunday on his wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Day 3 (Friday) slight risk already over much of the northern and central parts of both Missouri and Illinois, as well as parts of eastern Kansas and southeast Iowa: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 friday *could* be interesting in northern IL on the warm front if everything plays out and also be an early show as the 12z NAM is showing.. from SPC and Roger Edwards ..IL TO SRN PLAINS SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW AND ADJOINING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS MO...SERN IA AND IL...AMIDST VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO EVENING...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEAK AND SOMEWHAT VEERED/SWLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT OVER PORTIONS MO/WRN IL...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE BACKED FARTHER N ACROSS PORTIONS ERN IA/NRN IL IN PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT...WHERE GREATEST SRH AND SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP...FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY SFC LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. 12z NAM at 18z Friday once CoD's site updates with the 12z NAM the GL view maps will be better but not hard to see very sharp warm front across northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The ARR sounding and hodograph at 18z friday is pretty darn nice looking and supportive of supercells on the warm front but after that the sfc winds veer so we'll have to see how this one plays out. 0-3km CAPE values of 230 j/kg. http://beta.wxcaster...M&STATIONID=ARR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The ARR sounding and hodograph at 18z friday is pretty darn nice looking and supportive of supercells on the warm front but after that the sfc winds veer so we'll have to see how this one plays out. 0-3km CAPE values of 230 j/kg. Looks like some decent potential if things don't get screwed up with too much ongoing convection. SREF isn't too excited yet...I guess because it's a couple days out and the parameters aren't really overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 DVN regarding friday.. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE TROF WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWFA FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE EITHER LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON TIMING WOULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY THE CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE TORNADO RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 FWIW the 15z SREF now has a 10 contour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 FWIW the 15z SREF now has a 10 contour.. Uh oh...is that a tiny speck of 20 on the sig tor ingredients? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Tomorrow looks mildly interesting from Northern Indiana/Northern Illinois into Southern Lower Michigan. Obviously it's a messy set-up and won't really have a solid grip on things until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I think the best tornado threat tomorrow will be northern IL (especially east of I-39), northern IN and southern lower MI. This is taking the runs at face value though and we'll have to see what impact overnight convection has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 SPC WRF drills the corridor from here to Elkhart hard tomorrow afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Yeah, looks like its dependent on early morning convection, and just how far the WF will go. Some models showing only to IN/MI border, so we'll have to see how things progress tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Incredible obs coming out of Enid, OK with that dying thunderstorm. Hurricane force winds observed. I'd imagine these are producing significant damage... looks like they were kicking up a lot of dust earlier. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Hoping to just get some thunder tomorrow... it's been awful this month. TOL hasn't recorded a drop of rain this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Conditions look favorable for the development of additional heat bursts north of Oklahoma City, particularly in the Guthrie and Stillwater areas. Radar shows a rapidly dying thunderstorm moving towards those areas, capable of producing strong dry adiabatic downdrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 SPC WRF drills the corridor from here to Elkhart hard tomorrow afternoon... It pops a bunch of cells here around 00z. We're going to be removed from the best deep layer shear so I'm not sure about prospects for long-lived supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Conditions look favorable for the development of additional heat bursts north of Oklahoma City, particularly in the Guthrie and Stillwater areas. Radar shows a rapidly dying thunderstorm moving towards those areas, capable of producing strong dry adiabatic downdrafts. A heatburst may still be generated from this... Guthrie is reporting a rapid drop in pressure and increase in winds. Some rain is making it to the surface though, which will make it difficult to generate a true heat burst -- but it may impact places just to the east of there. SPECI KGOK 100508Z AUTO 13015G22KT 8SM -RA FEW055 27/17 A2980 RMK AO2 TSE02RAB00 PRESFR P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 A heatburst may still be generated from this... Guthrie is reporting a rapid drop in pressure and increase in winds. Some rain is making it to the surface though, which will make it difficult to generate a true heat burst -- but it may impact places just to the east of there. SPECI KGOK 100508Z AUTO 13015G22KT 8SM -RA FEW055 27/17 A2980 RMK AO2 TSE02RAB00 PRESFR P0000 You might have more posts about heat bursts in 24 hours than everyone in the past 10 years combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 2/30/30 on the day 1 outlook. A little surprising...I thought we could pull out a 5% tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 2/30/30 on the day 1 outlook. A little surprising...I thought we could pull out a 5% tornado. Yeah that is surprising unless they don't think the Warm Front will yield tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Yeah that is surprising unless they don't think the Warm Front will yield tomorrow. This setup actually reminds me of 6/5/10 in some ways, but (and it's a big but) the best deep layer shear lags behind the frontal zone in this case. I'm not expecting anything like last year but I've learned to not turn my back on a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 This setup actually reminds me of 6/5/10 in some ways, but (and it's a big but) the best deep layer shear lags behind the frontal zone in this case. I'm not expecting anything like last year but I've learned to not turn my back on a warm front. In all honesty I thought the same thing. The placement of the low seems pretty similar as well as strength and yeah cells riding warm fronts usually always verify. A few years ago we saw 4 tornadoes in NW Ohio on a bunch of really average supercells riding a warm front. They just always seem to drop along it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 This setup actually reminds me of 6/5/10 in some ways, but (and it's a big but) the best deep layer shear lags behind the frontal zone in this case. I'm not expecting anything like last year but I've learned to not turn my back on a warm front. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 One of the most impressive lightning displays I've seen in quite some time here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 And this weekend's series of storms may also feature a heavy rain threat: HPC is placing most of northeastern Illinois (roughly east of I-39 and between the I-80 and I-90 corridors, including Chicagoland) in a moderate (10-15%) excessive rainfall potential. Lincoln NWS is also headlining the potential heavy rain threat for tonight in their Local Area Forecasts for at least the Peoria and Springfield areas: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif Also another round of heavy rain a possibility on Sunday--particularly in southern and southwest Iowa: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Hopefully they can fix KIND's radar quickly. NOUS63 KIND 100918FTMIND Message Date: Jun 10 2011 09:18:32 KIND Radar will be out of service due to equipment problems. Technicians have b een notified of the problem. Surrounding radars include KIWX...KILN...KLVX...KL OT...KVWX...KILX and KPAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 RUC has the warm front making good progress into MI by 21z today. SPC bumped portions of Southern MI/NE Illinois/Northern IN/NW Ohio to a 5% tornado prob in the 13z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Bump to 5% tornado with the recently updated day one outlook. EDIT: SEMIweather beat me to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 The Lifted Index is quite high across Indiana and Illinois at 8 pm edt/7 pm cdt tonight. Plenty of moisture available also for any storms that do form today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 2/30/30 on the day 1 outlook. A little surprising...I thought we could pull out a 5% tornado. Got it now. I wasn't expecting it to make in into OH at all (as well as extending hail/wind east) with all this convective crap around here. Warm fronts usually end up producing here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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