wederwarrior Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 This morning 6 UT. shot by the SDO absolutely amazing http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2011/07jun11/mflare.mov?PHPSESSID=tfn2j8n6ej3vs3ov518m46g0r6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 What are the implications of this? Looks scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 What are the implications of this? Looks scary. One of the largest recorded from the SDO, but this active region is pointed away from us. More news to follow, later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 What are the implications of this? Looks scary. Glancing blow if any...probably minor storming and high latitude auroras. One of the largest recorded from the SDO, but this active region is pointed away from us. More news to follow, later today. The SDO has been in orbit for around 16 months. The CME looks spectacular, but there have been many better ones in recent years (during cycle 23), it's just that there wasn't that good observation point before the SDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 NWS just put up a news blurb on the main website for a G1 to G2 impact around 2 PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I am not a huge follower of these explosions - How unusual is an explosion of that size? Had that been directed at Earth - would it be an extreme or damaging event? Can anyone relate this to past explosions? Thanks "June 7, 2011 2130 UTC - Now with the benefit of more information and model input, the prediction for Geomagnetic Storm activity has been revised. The models have the trajectory of the CME to pass Earth with just a glancing blow, now expected to occur around 1200 UTC on June 9. Expect primarily G1 (minor) NOAA Scale levels then, and for the storm to persist for 24 hours. The intensity of the Solar Radiation Storm is expected to be little affected by the passage of the CME-driven shock" http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Hope this helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I am not a huge follower of these explosions - How unusual is an explosion of that size? Had that been directed at Earth - would it be an extreme or damaging event? Can anyone relate this to past explosions? Thanks Not unusual at all, really. In fact, these will gain in frequency of occurrence as we reach the height of the solar maximum next year. As Wxmx stated earlier, we didn't have the SDO in place before to get such immense detail of the CMEs. Certainly, it's a large flare, but you have experienced much larger flares in your lifetime. I believe instruments recorded an X28 flare around 2001, or maybe that was 2003? At any rate, what's amazing about the SDO is that we can now see the CME's debris as they interact with the Sun's magnetic field and gravity. If this had been directed at Earth, we could have had some satellite interference, but probably wouldn't have caused permanent damage. Aurora activity during the event would be likely, but only in extreme northern hemisphere. An M5 class flare probably wouldn't strain power grids to the point of outages unless we received a direct hit. Remember, just because a large flare is directed towards Earth doesn't necessarily mean that it will cause damage. The location of greatest flux and its approach with respect to the Earth's exact position is imporant; and of course, how that flux interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. Granted, I'm not trying to downplay large flares. I don't think any of us here want to see a scenario unfold where an enormous CME and X45 class flare hurls directly at Earth. A repeat of 1859 would not be fun to experience in modern times. We've become so reliant on electronics/computers. There could be severe implications. I can only imagine what the SDO is going to allow us to see in the next few years. I wonder what an X5 or greater class flare and its CME will look like erupting from the surface in such detail.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Not unusual at all, really. In fact, these will gain in frequency of occurrence as we reach the height of the solar maximum next year. As Wxmx stated earlier, we didn't have the SDO in place before to get such immense detail of the CMEs. Certainly, it's a large flare, but you have experienced much larger flares in your lifetime. I believe instruments recorded an X28 flare around 2001, or maybe that was 2003? At any rate, what's amazing about the SDO is that we can now see the CME's debris as they interact with the Sun's magnetic field and gravity. If this had been directed at Earth, we could have had some satellite interference, but probably wouldn't have caused permanent damage. Aurora activity during the event would be likely, but only in extreme northern hemisphere. An M5 class flare probably wouldn't strain power grids to the point of outages unless we received a direct hit. Remember, just because a large flare is directed towards Earth doesn't necessarily mean that it will cause damage. The location of greatest flux and its approach with respect to the Earth's exact position is imporant; and of course, how that flux interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. Granted, I'm not trying to downplay large flares. I don't think any of us here want to see a scenario unfold where an enormous CME and X45 class flare hurls directly at Earth. A repeat of 1859 would not be fun to experience in modern times. We've become so reliant on electronics/computers. There could be severe implications. I can only imagine what the SDO is going to allow us to see in the next few years. I wonder what an X5 or greater class flare and its CME will look like erupting from the surface in such detail.. my sentiments exactly. It is a phenomenal view of a flare and what we are able to see now. Its truly amazing what we are getting from the SDO. and my fingers are crossed to see some auroral activity from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Actually, later analysis of the flare of November 4, 2003 upgraded it from X28 to X44. I actually observed that event with my telescope and a H Alpha filter. As I noted in my post on this event in the Science section, A M2.5 event is fairly modest but the Geophysical effects are rather strong for this level of an X-Ray flare. Usually you see >10 and >100 MeV protons and 1155 km/sec CMEs with X-class events. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Actually, later analysis of the flare of November 4, 2003 upgraded it from X28 to X44. I actually observed that event with my telescope and a H Alpha filter. As I noted in my post on this event in the Science section, A M2.5 event is fairly modest but the Geophysical effects are rather strong for this level of an X-Ray flare. Usually you see >10 and >100 MeV protons and 1155 km/sec CMEs with X-class events. Steve Is that the one that almost crashed the space station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yes, apparently - from what I have read over time, a repeat of 1859 would cost the economy an enormous amount of money - not to mention other consequences. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 Today I learned of this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Is that the one that almost crashed the space station? I don't know if you are serious or joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Actually, later analysis of the flare of November 4, 2003 upgraded it from X28 to X44. I actually observed that event with my telescope and a H Alpha filter. As I noted in my post on this event in the Science section, A M2.5 event is fairly modest but the Geophysical effects are rather strong for this level of an X-Ray flare. Usually you see >10 and >100 MeV protons and 1155 km/sec CMEs with X-class events. Steve Sunspot 486 was the responsible for that super flare... there was an X17.2 flare a week before (Oct 28th) from that same sunspot, when this image was taken Compare it to our current "active" sol The Carrinton event is estimated to have been an X45-50 superflare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The X17.2 Flare of October 28, 2003 and its CME resulted in the 5th most intense GEMAG storm on record with aurora visible into the Tropics. I watched the declining phase of that flare. If they estimate the Carrington event as X45-50 then we really dodged a bullet with the X44 on November 4, 2003. That was a limb event and main shock of the CME was not Earth directed. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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