mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MCS complex? More like slow movera probably. I'd expect a few big rainers later at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Damn them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 could be a convective parametrization feedback..... I thought that at first, till Ian said it had been there for a few runs. Can a model suffer convective feedbck for more than a couple of runs in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 would not be surprised if they did bring it closer Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Damn them! I know... severe wx gods hate us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yes....IAD's current summer norms are a joke It's really amazing that change only really began in earnest in the mid-late 90s (and only with night time lows) but the results have been drastic since then. No sub-zero lows, with record summer minimums becoming rather normal. As the new Silver Line corridor truly takes off, it wouldn't surprise me to see minimums moving 2-3 degrees higher even by 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I thought that at first, till Ian said it had been there for a few runs. Can a model suffer convective feedbck for more than a couple of runs in a row? I wouldn't take it verbatim but it has advertised it a while now. Atmosphere supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 If the slight doesn't expand - it's going to be awfully tightly packed from mod to slight on the southern end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I wouldn't take it verbatim but it has advertised it a while now. Atmosphere supports it. PWATS are decent too 1.5-1.7 in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 If the slight doesn't expand - it's going to be awfully tightly packed from mod to slight on the southern end of it. it'll come south to us at least i think .. maybe not too far southeast tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 that's true, it has been in a number of past GFS and NAM runs, but it is still the manifestation of convective feedback which doesn't always mean the model output is bunk, just means don't trust the placement or the QPF I thought that at first, till Ian said it had been there for a few runs. Can a model suffer convective feedbck for more than a couple of runs in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 96... 102 might be in play. on a side note i've not seen it get past 102 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 96... 102 might be in play. on a side note i've not seen it get past 102 here. it hasn't happened since 1999 I think....kind of would like to see it...we've only had like 12? or so 103+ on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 it hasn't happened since 1999 I think....kind of would like to see it...we've only had like 12? or so 103+ on record 17 it seems. 1999 does appear to be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Climo-weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 GFS likes the 0-6z window tonight for the DC-Balt corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 17 it seems. 1999 does appear to be the last. 17 is not insubstantial....come on 103! would be kind of impossible on June 9th though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 17 is not insubstantial....come on 103! would be kind of impossible on June 9th though we are due. on the bright side breaking a 130+ yr monthly record would give the global warming guys an article or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 98/71 HI of 106 at noon in Baltimore City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 17 is not insubstantial....come on 103! would be kind of impossible on June 9th though Too humid too. Hard to get over 100 with dp in the high 60s/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This Afternoon: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 109. West wind around 8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Too humid too. Hard to get over 100 with dp in the high 60s/70 not if we get a crazy downsloping westerly wind burst...happened on 8/17/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 not if we get a crazy downsloping westerly wind burst...happened on 8/17/97 Like one of these? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=69423&source=0 My heat experience was forged in the middle of NC, so not too much downsloping there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 97.4 at Dulles. I wonder how Pepco's grid will handle the high usage. Currently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 does it matter? the afternoon/evening storms will take care of anything the heat doesn't cripple 97.4 at Dulles. I wonder how Pepco's grid will handle the high usage. Currently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 it'll come south to us at least i think .. maybe not too far southeast tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 does it matter? the afternoon/evening storms will take care of anything the heat doesn't cripple So true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Would you like a cookie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 high five for self promotion...j/k Would you like a cookie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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