Ellinwood Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 DCA 85 (S winds) AND haze IAD 86 DCA is 6F ahead of yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 So, we going to see any storms tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 So, we going to see any storms tonight? Let's go RUC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 So, we going to see any storms tonight? You of all people should know the answer to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 So, we going to see any storms tonight? Is mama grizzly bear changing her mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Weird, I can't multi-quote for some reason Re: storms today: I saw that the ARW and WRF-NMM had storms for us around 00z. I see the RUC does too. Just wanted to get someone elses opinion before I throw those models out and stick with my "we don't get storms" stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Weird, I can't multi-quote for some reason Re: storms today: I saw that the ARW and WRF-NMM had storms for us around 00z. I see the RUC does too. Just wanted to get someone elses opinion before I throw those models out and stick with my "we don't get storms" stance. 9z LWX ARW has the storms doing a poetic dance around MBY and Baltimore...skirting DC...and nailing just about everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 most of the hi res have some storms--or did (have not looked at the newest since 0z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 9z LWX ARW has the storms doing a poetic dance around MBY and Baltimore...skirting DC...and nailing just about everyone else. 11z HRRR does something similar - has a line near Hagerstown/Frederick around 5, the usual DC split takes place and then the line comes back together once it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Before yesterday, the warmest temp on my VP2 was 93.7 this year. At 10am I am sitting at 89.5 Will you weenies stop refreshing LWX so we can get a 10am reading around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Maybe the slight can be extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Maybe the slight can be extended Great directional shear just ahead of the front, but there's virtually NO speed shear (highest wind speed up to the trop. is like, 30 kts. on the latest RUC sounding). LCLs are gonna be wayyyy up there as well. + side... mmmmm CAPE & FROPA lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 DCA 92(!) IAD 89 edit BWI 91 Ocean City 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 DCA 92(!) IAD 89 edit BWI 91 Ocean City 94 93 downtown Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Weird, I can't multi-quote for some reason Re: storms today: I saw that the ARW and WRF-NMM had storms for us around 00z. I see the RUC does too. Just wanted to get someone elses opinion before I throw those models out and stick with my "we don't get storms" stance. DC split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 DCA/BWI share 94F at 11am, with IAD two behind at 92F. I think we can squeak out 6 more degrees before 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Just stepped out for a bit and it is one of those hard to breathe air masses out there. Office work ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 New Max min daily record set at 79....also earliest 79 min on record IAD's climate is going to be changing very drastically in the next decade, and while the data above is for DCA, just wait... with continued urbanization, IAD's overnight temperature swings are becoming much more inelastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 the nam has had someone getting soaked later today in the area for a few runs.. this run is a mini flood for someone http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 RUC still showing showers, maybe storms, later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 the nam has had someone getting soaked later today in the area for a few runs.. this run is a mini flood for someone http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_018m.gif MCS complex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 could be a convective parametrization feedback..... MCS complex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MCS complex? More like slow movera probably. I'd expect a few big rainers later at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Damn them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 could be a convective parametrization feedback..... I thought that at first, till Ian said it had been there for a few runs. Can a model suffer convective feedbck for more than a couple of runs in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 would not be surprised if they did bring it closer Moderate risk will be going up in PA northward at the next update - think they will include us in a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Damn them! I know... severe wx gods hate us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yes....IAD's current summer norms are a joke It's really amazing that change only really began in earnest in the mid-late 90s (and only with night time lows) but the results have been drastic since then. No sub-zero lows, with record summer minimums becoming rather normal. As the new Silver Line corridor truly takes off, it wouldn't surprise me to see minimums moving 2-3 degrees higher even by 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I thought that at first, till Ian said it had been there for a few runs. Can a model suffer convective feedbck for more than a couple of runs in a row? I wouldn't take it verbatim but it has advertised it a while now. Atmosphere supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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