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DC/MD/VA/WV General Obs/Disc - June/early July 2011 edition


Ellinwood

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Sorry for the misleading data - I setup a sprinkler by it there was no rain while you were gone!

lmaosmiley.gif Good one.

Going to be dang hot today and tomorrow. Hopefully that ridge over the plains never gets here are we are toast. GFS hints at a 5 day period of at least 95-105 temps next week.

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Some MCS love later???

From LWX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED POPS FOR LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOR MCS ACTIVITY TONIGHT. MORNING GUIDANCE IS VERY SLOW/NOT REALIZING ONGOING MCS/S OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMPLE LINEAR TRACKING OF THE ERN MI ACTIVITY /ESE AT 30 KT/ WOULD REACH WRN MD IN 8 HRS...DC IN 11 HRS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

post-1534-0-51491000-1310404158.gif

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I was on vacation last week also. Don't have a rain gauge but the collecting ponds in my neighborhood are full and we have 3.

I'm in Ballenger Creek and my gauge measured 3.2" for Friday. The rainfall rates with our afternoon storm were amazing. Parts of Market street were flooded for a while because the rain overwhelmed the drainage systems. There were pics on the DC news channels and the News Post.

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I'm in Ballenger Creek and my gauge measured 3.2" for Friday. The rainfall rates with our afternoon storm were amazing. Parts of Market street were flooded for a while because the rain overwhelmed the drainage systems. There were pics on the DC news channels and the News Post.

Yep I am in Ballenger Creek also. Will check the News Post archives for shots.:sun:

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Some MCS love later???

From LWX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED POPS FOR LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOR MCS ACTIVITY TONIGHT. MORNING GUIDANCE IS VERY SLOW/NOT REALIZING ONGOING MCS/S OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMPLE LINEAR TRACKING OF THE ERN MI ACTIVITY /ESE AT 30 KT/ WOULD REACH WRN MD IN 8 HRS...DC IN 11 HRS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

Have no fear... it will miss...

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Some MCS love later???

From LWX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED POPS FOR LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOR MCS ACTIVITY TONIGHT. MORNING GUIDANCE IS VERY SLOW/NOT REALIZING ONGOING MCS/S OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMPLE LINEAR TRACKING OF THE ERN MI ACTIVITY /ESE AT 30 KT/ WOULD REACH WRN MD IN 8 HRS...DC IN 11 HRS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

I was just in Blacklick, OH east of Columbus yesterday. I was at my sisters house and it is getting pounded right now.

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96.6 with heat index of 104. We're under cloud cover now. Sure wish we could squeeze out a few storms.

Looking like your wish is going to come true. That complex in OH looks to definitely cross our path. I don't think the apps are going to destroy it either.

7-10PM looks like our window.

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I could only hope. But, those mountains are evil.

Too true most of the time. This system is pretty damn big and decently organized. Even if the front line takes a hit crossing the mountains we should at least get some rain and some rumbles.

If the front edge clears the blueridge before sunset then we could get some nice storms mixed in. Don't think it will get here that quick though.

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Too true most of the time. This system is pretty damn big and decently organized. Even if the front line takes a hit crossing the mountains we should at least get some rain and some rumbles.

If the front edge clears the blueridge before sunset then we could get some nice storms mixed in. Don't think it will get here that quick though.

One day i'd like a MCS to plow across my house. I never even had one really.

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these things tend to head se/sse.. the way the bow looks i think it would miss to the south if if survives. tho the main energy is north. i doubt we get much of note.

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these things tend to head se/sse.. the way the bow looks i think it would miss to the south if if survives. tho the main energy is north. i doubt we get much of note.

Sounds about right. The stuff by pittsburgh is really getting going though some 60-65 dbz there now.

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these things tend to head se/sse.. the way the bow looks i think it would miss to the south if if survives. tho the main energy is north. i doubt we get much of note.

It sure is moving quickly...and trending more SSE. It will be running into some nice juicy air too. I don't know whether to believe it or not but my DP is 80 atm. Other PWS's nearby have as high or almost as high.

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It sure is moving quickly...and trending more SSE. It will be running into some nice juicy air too. I don't know whether to believe it or not but my DP is 80 atm. Other PWS's nearby have as high or almost as high.

you're in a good spot it seems... looks to me like much of the northern wv portion is becoming outflow dominant and weakening a little. it looks like due north of you and to the west is trying to strengthen.. tho a little gap immediately north in intensity. also those front runner popups.

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I'll take the option where the line splits and it blows up north and south of the DC/BWI cooridor.

that's possible too.. nam still has the main shortwave going through pa. then the bowing segment wants to run south. see how long it survives running deeper into the upper ridge tho.

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you're in a good spot it seems... looks to me like much of the northern wv portion is becoming outflow dominant and weakening a little. it looks like due north of you and to the west is trying to strengthen.. tho a little gap immediately north in intensity. also those front runner popups.

Some of those tops are almost 40,000 feet. TVS just showed up on the last frame north of Charleston...just crossed the OH river

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