12Z Euro - 12/2/10

[earthlight]

Classic 50/50 low and it's still trying to cut the surface low inland

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Miller A????

[tombo82685]

yep.. good news is we have a 1032 high parked nearby...

with that 50/50 low sitting there, this storm prob wil cut then redevlop somewhere

[tombo82685]

hr 222 sub 1004 low in east central miss

[tombo82685]

hr 228 sub 1008 low over central alabama precip starting to come into western pa

[tornadojay]

well, some precip trying to creep up to us by 234.. looks like a primary low dissapation over the lakes with another trying to form over GA

[tombo82685]

hr 234 1008 low over al/ga border.precip into n mid mid atl into western ny 850 line right on m/d line frz line just north

[Ji]

Well it has a storm 2 straight runs

[tornadojay]

doesn't look too good this time around.. just a neutral trof over the central U.S. with warming conditions by us as the precip comes..

[tombo82685]

hr 240 secondary over western nc, rain from i80 south, looks like a glorified swfe

[tombo82685]

big arctic airmass dropping down on the back side into the plains

[mattinpa]

hr 240 secondary over western nc, rain from i80 south, looks like a glorified swfe

Meh, not concerned. With all that cold air and the blocking, wouldn't you say 0z looks more logical?

[tombo82685]

its deff encouraging though, cause we do have a 50/50 low it just may be to weak, nao is neg to might be a little east based

[tombo82685]

Meh, not concerned. With all that cold air and the blocking, wouldn't you say 0z looks more logical?

who knows its 240 hrs out, it will change 25,000 more times

[Nikolai]

hr 240 secondary over western nc, rain from i80 south, looks like a glorified swfe

With a 1030+ high over Quebec and a 50/50 present, this solution clearly warrants suspicion...

[mattinpa]

who knows its 240 hrs out, it will change 25,000 more times

That's true. Good thing is that we have cold and storm threats again.

[tombo82685]

doesn't look too good this time around.. just a neutral trof over the central U.S. with warming conditions by us as the precip comes..

u think that goa low tempering that ridge down a little played a role in the cutter and erosion of cold air?

[CooL]

instead of focusing on the details, just remember the cold air is available, the storm is still there coming from the south, and the threat of supression is highly unlikely this go around. Bring on the 00z haha

[tombo82685]

anyone got the hr 140 visual so people can see?

[rgwp96]

well at least the lakes will freeze and maybe ill be able to do some early ice fishing

[MJO812]

anyone got the hr 140 visual so people can see?

144

[tornadojay]

u think that goa low tempering that ridge down a little played a role in the cutter and erosion of cold air?

well, i'm not positive, but i was trying to look closely at last run compared to this one to see where things started changing the most and that's where I saw big differences. It definitely looks like it affected the initial development of the low and the strength. At 00Z last night, it looked as though that system near the GOM was gonna be fairly potent.

[SnowGoose69]

its deff encouraging though, cause we do have a 50/50 low it just may be to weak, nao is neg to might be a little east based

Its a plausible setup for sure, but one in which a significant amount of snow could be dumped prior to a changeover due to strong overrunning with a big high over New England or SE Canada...see both these setups below which resulted in a changeover to rain along the coast but dropped alot of snow before....the 1991 event had a good low to the NE as well but the block was non-existent or too far east as is more the case on the Euro's depiction this time.

http://www.meteo.psu...1991/us0111.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us1214.php

[jrodd321]

Good to still see the storm on the long range. It will change 100 more times though.

[cleetussnow]

Forget the details, the set-up leading up to and around 240 has some potential as I read it.

[tornadojay]

yea, I agree with what everyone has been saying. The overall set-up has the right ingredients in place.

[earthlight]

As long as these things happen, as the Euro has been indicating, happy times will be here by mid December. First, the big vortex and ULL needs to get out of the Northeast and back into Canada, and not erode the NAO ridge in the process. This would completely break down the pattern if it did so. Second, that big west coast ridge needs to develop. The PNA hard data might not be positive because of the trough hitting the west coast and the lower heights compared to average PNA ridges, but fundamentally that ridge is important. Finally, the polar jet must come south into Canada as adverised on the Euro as well. This is important as it introduces a fresh arctic airmass into the system. We have enough energy in this pattern that when the vortex lifts north, i(t will inevitably approach the 50/50 position due to the Atlantic blocking) the setup could be very favorable by the 10-14 of December.

[Alpha5]

Well the Euro was really cold in the mid-long range and kept the storm around 240. That solution will change by the next run but the overall set up seems ok. It looks like the models might be trying to develop a west based NAO, with a good 50/50 setup as well. Not sure if we get a storm through the lakes in this setup...doesnt seem right in this setup

[SnoSki14]

The blocking still has to be strong enough so that the storm does not cut through the lakes or Appalachians, and that's my concern. It does look a lot stormier starting December 10th, but will we see rainstorms or snowstorms? It's a good sign that the NAO is very reluctant to go positive, no matter how hard it tries, it remains on the negative side. We haven't see a sustained positive NAO since early October and we've been averaging negative since last winter. As long as we have some blocking and a 50/50 low in place, then it should end up pretty well for us.

Those around and north of 40N away from the immediate coast have the best chance to get snow this December, but at least some areas further south will pick up some snow from the upcoming clipper.

[Chris L]

The ECMWF is a significant improvement in the long range. The block becomes weaker (going toward neutral status). While you might not have a classic PNA ridge (like most large scale snow events do) it is JUST going to be enough.

December 11-12th is the time frame. And a beautiful downstream ridge in the Rockies.