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Arizona's Turn


aslkahuna

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Layers of dense smoke are drifting over Tucson from several wildfires to the south of us. Largest fires are to the East and Northeast with the Wallow fire near Alpine the largest and the third largest ever in the state. Another in the White mountains is the 5th largest while the Horseshoe2 fire in the Chiricahuas has grown to over 100k acres. Temperatures are in the low 100's with RH values of 5% or less and little nighttime recovery. Some dry boomers are expected near the NM State line tonight and tomorrow which is not needed. We are also seeing the typical desert winds in the afternoon which are not helping either,

Steve

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Not good...

I would add SE AZ to the critical or even extreme given how many wildfires we have down here already. It's been very dry this Spring and last month tied the record for the lowest average dewpoint. Dewpoints have been averaging 10-20 degrees below the already low average of 20-30 degrees. On May 7th we had an afternoon temperaure of 96 with a dewpoint of -8 for a 104 degree dewpoint depression. Right now I'm showing 103F with 4% RH and the typical 10-20 mph desert wind. Attached is a photo showing the smoke layers over TUS last evening.

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Steve

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The attached hi res visual satellite image shows the smoke plumes from the Wallow fire (now at 230+k acres) along with pyrocu tops and the Murphy/Pajarita fire in SW Santa Cruz County near Peña Blanca Lake south of Tucson. The National Forest Service has announced that the Coronado NF is closed to the Public -this includes popular areas such as Mt. Lemmon and Sabino Canyon. However, this closure does not apply to drug/human smugglers or illegal aliens which is ironic since many of the fires starts this year have been due to their unattended campfires.

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Steve

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Today's shot of the smoke plumes in AZ. The Wallow fire is at 389k acres and is the second largest in State history. The southern plume is from the Horseshoe2 fire in the Chiricahuas. Springerville and Eagar were evacuated today as the Wallow fire approached. Fire is endangering powerlines leading from the Palo Verde Nuclear Plant west of PHX into TX.

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Steve

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I'm in Santa Fe and we've had serious Wallow smoke problems for a week now including ash fall. Last Thursday night I went outside in the evening to take out some trash and it smelled strongly of the fire and I thought it was close. Checked all the usual fire sites and found nothing. The NWS then issued a special statement about the plume because there was ash falling in parts of the area. Sometimes during the day the smoke will mix out but it almost always comes rolling back in around sunset.

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Thats what it looked like a few days ago as it did this. The smoke is incredibly irritating to the eyes and sinuses. We haven't had ashfall other than the first night but its very very odd. Its amazing that this fire is fairly far and its having a serious affect on the Santa Fe / Albuquerque areas.

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smoke_20110603212433_640_480.JPG

That is the view from the Sandia Mountains on the east side of Albuquerque a few nights ago. The smoke is so thick it looks like West Coast fog. You can see where the Rio Grande is so in this picture most of the west side of Albuquerque is inside of the plume. Nasty stuff.

Wow, that is an incredible picture. Talk about awful air quality.

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Another fire has started in the Coronado National Memorial south of Sierra Vista. Homes in the area are threatened and evacuations have been ordered. Fire is a human start-since the Memorial and Forest are closed to the US Public your guess as to which humans is as good as mine.

Steve

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Though only at 5200 acres, the Monument fire is only 10% contained and has destroyed 50 structures including 40 homes. It has jumped AZ92 into the Hereford area which is more populated. Winds at FHU today are gusting to 38 mph with 11% RH. Hereford is the center of the high wind zone in the lee of the Huachuca mountains so gusts over 40 there are possible, AZ92 is now closed at Ramsey Road about 5 miles south of Sierra Vista. Traffic is being directed to Moson Road and then there either south to Hereford or north to AZ 90.

Steve

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UPDATE: Monument Fire now at 10000 acres. Eyewitness report from a Cochise County Supervisor reported 30-40 ft high flames along both sides of Hiway 92 at the entrance to 3 Canyons Road which leads into a developed area. Growth here consists of scrub oak, Juniper and Manzanita (of CA fire fame). Sad to say that the threatened and destroyed structures were put in place without much regard to fire and wind hazards. With the monsoon due to start (on Nature's schedule) in Jul;y, flash floods and mudslides are a certainty in the burn area which besides the other hazards gets more monsoon rainfall and more intense storms than does Sierra Vista.

Steve

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RED FLAG Warnings out for SE AZ for today through Sunday. In June 2003, when the Aspen Fire was burning we had 8 consecutive days of RFW's here -a record streak. This month, though not in a row we've had at least 8 RFW days. The situation is very serious in Cochise County and the County has declared a State of Emergency with Governor expected to visit tomorrow before making her own declaration. The Monument fire though smaller, has become the priority 1 fire in the state with resources being diverted to it because a much larger population is threatened. Pre Evacuation orders have been issued for the entire area from Ramsey Road east to the River. This includes the town of Palominas. Hiway 92 is closed at Buffalo Soldier Trail (3 miles south of downtown Sierra Vista) and at Bisbee. The fire run is towards the NW-E and the N-E runs threaten populated ares including Sierra Vista proper. A fire break is being made along Carr Canyon Road to prevent the fire from reaching the homes and business between it and Ramsey Road. It's going to be a tough job given the fact that the road is narrow, unpaved and has heavy growth. The NW run is into rugged terrain on Post and poses big threat there as well. I've been up there and the area is ripe for a major burn. Meanwhile, Cochise and Graham Counties are now in Exceptional Drought.

Steve

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UPDATE: Governor Brewer has declared a State of Emergency in Cochise County and has authorized mobilization of the National Guard to assist there. The Wallow fire is now at 500k acres and is the largest in State History. The Horseshoe 2 fire has burned 166k acres. The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista has burned 18580 acres but threatens portons of Sierra Vista which is the third largest city in SE AZ behind Tucson and Nogales. Red Flag warnings are out for all of Arizona through Sunday. A second fire, the Antelope Fire started on Post and posed the threat to parts of the Post and Sierra Vista it was hit hard and immediately because of the potential for damage and has been contained. Areas north of Ramsey Road have been alerted for evacuation and the Monument fire is in lower Garden Canyon now. The fire is also burning down Miller Canyon which is not good news give the current wind forecasts.

Steve

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High winds gusting 50-60 mph grounded the tanker aircraft yesterday and the Monument fire made another run. Coming down Carr Canyon and crossing Hiway 92 in two places. Three longtime businesses (they were there when I arrived in AZ in 1986) were destroyed and the Mesquite Tree Restaurant barely escaped (another landmark business) . The jump in the Hereford area with the businesses (the Post Office barely escaped) is bad because across the Highway is a large subdivision and and an area with a lot of manufactured homes. As of right now, some 10000 people have been evacuated. This is well over 10% of the population of Sierra Vista which is a high number. Winds are expected to come down to the normal afternoon 15-20 mph gusts with hotter temperatures. The Wallow Fire is threatening the small town of Luna NM.

Steve

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The Monument Fire is over 50% contained and burnout operations continue. It's hotter and we still get afternoon breezes but conditions are nowhere near as bad as last Sunday. Video shot on that day showed the fire plume looking more like a pyroclastic flow from a volcano than smoke from a fire. Dewpoints are more closer to average as well and there's nighttime recovery of humidity. The toll is 58 homes, 6 vehicles, 14 outbuildings, and 5 businesses (4 of which were hisotrical). The point of origin has been pinpointed and it's clear from all other circumstances that the fire was human caused and the starter was not an American citizen. To whaty end it was started is not known but given a large number of fires of similar character as to origin and located in the Border area, we either have a serial arsonist or an organization(s) seeking to create anxiety along the Border and keep US citizens out of the area.

Steve

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