New Mesoscale Discussion

[raysum]

Mesoscale Discussion 1102< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NC / CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 052015Z - 052115Z IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...A DMGG WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NC TOWARDS THE CHARLOTTE METRO. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR THE NC-SC BORDER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN NWWD TOWARDS THE I-73/74 CORRIDOR...THIS MAY TOO RESULT IN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM NEAR THE NC-SC COAST NWWD TO 25 MI E AVL AND ITS PRIMARILY IDENTIFIED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN A DECAYING THERMAL GRADIENT. NEAR AND N OF THIS ZONE...ISOLD STORMS HAVE ARISEN FROM A TCU FIELD OVER THE MTNS OF WRN NC AND A THICKENING PATCH OF CU EXTENDS SEWD TOWARDS ILM. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED STORM COVERAGE THOUGHT TO BE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON THE FRINGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL NWLYS...SOME LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IF STORMGENESIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF WIND DMGG OWING TO STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO AS TO WHETHER A WW NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED.

[phil882]

Yep, its going to be an active afternoon with the MCS located over TN moving into our region. Don't be surprised if we have another impressive line form this evening as the individual cells morph into line of severe storms across South Carolina.