June 6-9th Severe Weather

[Torontonian]

Looks like an evening of MCS in southern ontario again

Already discrete supercells apparently produced tornadoes just a little north of Toronto here.

No tornado warnings but many severe thunderstorm warnings to northeast of here.

A hot 92 degrees and muggy downtown feels explosive here as well.

[MidwestChaser]

I thought it was supposed to be more humid out; dew points are barely in the 60s.

[wisconsinwx]

Now that the sun is out and the temps are still around 90 with dewpoints in the 60s I think there is still a good chance of severe storms throughout SE Wisconsin. I never thought there was much chance of tornadic activity, so I am just interested in seeing a good line of thunderstorms come through and cool us down.

[BowMeHunter]

Now that the sun is out and the temps are still around 90 with dewpoints in the 60s I think there is still a good chance of severe storms throughout SE Wisconsin. I never thought there was much chance of tornadic activity, so I am just interested in seeing a good line of thunderstorms come through and cool us down.

Still socked in with clouds and popcorn fart showers popping.. Could be a really miserable night at miller park if the roof is closed.. Think any line of storms will hold off until after the game around 10? I felt so confident this am that we would be golden for a nice bow to come through..naso much now but just maybe there is a small window ahead of the front to rip tits yet.

[wisconsinwx]

Still socked in with clouds and popcorn fart showers popping.. Could be a really miserable night at miller park if the roof is closed.. Think any line of storms will hold off until after the game around 10? I felt so confident this am that we would be golden for a nice bow to come through..naso much now but just maybe there is a small window ahead of the front to rip tits yet.

Based on the models I think any line of storms would develop well NW of here around 5 or so, and move through around 7 or 8. If no decent storms are popping by 7 or 8, then I'll probably call it a night.

[wisconsinwx]

Btw, that heavy rain event you were talking about, Bow, is looking good at this point. Now an inch to two of rain looks quite plausible. I don't know how I feel about it. I would have loved it in April, when 60 was considered mild, but in June not as much. If we get some embedded thunderstorms with it it will be worth it.

[SEMIweather]

You can see the line forming back SW into Iowa on visible satellite.

[cyclone77]

Storms taking off pretty good now near Waterloo. Think SPC is too far southeast with the greater severe risk including the QCA. I think by the time the storms reach this far southeast they'll be more heavy rain producers than severe weather producers.

[indeedinger]

about to get drilled here in Independence - storms very rapidly developing to my WSW . . .

[Chinook]

Regarding tomorrow (June 9)

SPC SREF seems to say there should be impressive supercell parameters in southern Iowa, with a fair amount of QPF. The NAM comes up with something like 600 m2/s2 helicity. The SPC discussion talks about capping issues. I think there could be tornadoes somewhere in the region.

http://wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA212_SVR_CAPESRHSWEAT_36HR.gif

Generally good CAPE with about 30 knots of deep layer shear for most of the Northeast/most of Ohio

Colorado- weaker instability with a good shortwave trough moving through. A few front range thunderstorms developing off the high mountains. Models don't have very high QPF on this, but I think some storms will happen, and chances of severe depends on if we hit 1000 J/kg (foothills) 1500 J/kg (plains)

[A-L-E-K]

Storms taking off pretty good now near Waterloo. Think SPC is too far southeast with the greater severe risk including the QCA. I think by the time the storms reach this far southeast they'll be more heavy rain producers than severe weather producers.

DCAPE is pretty good, i could see them developing a nice cold pool and becoming pretty nasty by the time they head into your area, further southeast from there, i agree with your thinking.

EDIT: one other thing, these storms should be very electric.

[indeedinger]

Good call - tons of lightning just to my west.

DCAPE is pretty good, i could see them developing a nice cold pool and becoming pretty nasty by the time they head into your area, further southeast from there, i agree with your thinking.

EDIT: one other thing, these storms should be very electric.

[cyclone77]

EDIT: one other thing, these storms should be very electric.

Agreed. Expecting a hell of a light show after dark.

Cedar Rapids and Dubuque are positioned pretty nicely to get some severe weather over the next hour or two.

[cyclone77]

That storm west of Dodgeville Wisconsin is a BEAST! Really looks supercellular, so that one may need to be watched for some potential tornado activity before it merges with the others.

[Hoosier]

Storms taking off pretty good now near Waterloo. Think SPC is too far southeast with the greater severe risk including the QCA. I think by the time the storms reach this far southeast they'll be more heavy rain producers than severe weather producers.

I agree about a heavy rain threat developing...but I'm not sure the severe threat is going to taper off as quickly. MLCAPE values don't really drop off a lot overnight.

[kevlon62]

Ever so slight boundary evident on MKX radar running WSW-ENE over the northern third of Walworth Cty, WI.

OT: Satellite also appears to show AZ smoke plumes all the way into WI.

[Thundersnow12]

Ever so slight boundary evident on MKX radar running WSW-ENE over the northern third of Walworth Cty, WI.

OT: Satellite also appears to show AZ smoke plumes all the way into WI.

guessing and old OFB from the stuff this morning

[Thundersnow12]

I agree about a heavy rain threat developing...but I'm not sure the severe threat is going to taper off as quickly. MLCAPE values don't really drop off a lot overnight.

Ya but low-level moisture isn't as great the further east you go, eastern IA/northwest IL have dew points in the upper 60's near 70 with northeast IL dew points in the upper 50's, heck CO9 and IKK are at 52 and 55 respectively.

[baroclinic_instability]

I am sure nobody cares but some neat high plains/mountain convection in WY in between the Laramie Range and the Snowies. I think that little snippet of land one of the most challenging areas to forecast severe DMC in the US owing to the unique terrain and the fact they can indeed see sufficient upslope return flow to develop supercells.

[BowMeHunter]

Based on the models I think any line of storms would develop well NW of here around 5 or so, and move through around 7 or 8. If no decent storms are popping by 7 or 8, then I'll probably call it a night.

Btw, that heavy rain event you were talking about, Bow, is looking good at this point. Now an inch to two of rain looks quite plausible. I don't know how I feel about it. I would have loved it in April, when 60 was considered mild, but in June not as much. If we get some embedded thunderstorms with it it will be worth it.

Thanks man. Looks like it might be game on still as my tummy thought this am. Some nasty stuff popping out west and hopefully they come through here for you, GL!

Yeah.. I'm not thrilled about the forecast either thurs/fri but it looks like we're in the prime spot for rains and a nasty lake breeze. Guess me and the wife will be getting that painting done we put off instead of boating.. What crap luck for her first 2 vacation days of the YR.. And she had to work extra late tonight so no tailgating before the brewers game now.

[cyclone77]

Looks like there was a brief tornado about an hour or so ago south of Waterloo per SPC reports.

EDIT: That same cell has a decent looking couplet north of Vinton.

[A-L-E-K]

Ya but low-level moisture isn't as great the further east you go, eastern IA/northwest IL have dew points in the upper 60's near 70 with northeast IL dew points in the upper 50's, heck CO9 and IKK are at 52 and 55 respectively.

PWATs increase pretty quick ahead of the front with nice long vectors, upwind propogation vectors look good as well, I think we see some decent rains.

[Hoosier]

Ya but low-level moisture isn't as great the further east you go, eastern IA/northwest IL have dew points in the upper 60's near 70 with northeast IL dew points in the upper 50's, heck CO9 and IKK are at 52 and 55 respectively.

That's true but short range models bring those up later this evening. Deep layer shear is weaker with southeastward extent. I would expect things to weaken but very gradually, and if we see a nice cold pool form then we could get scattered severe reports well into the overnight.

[A-L-E-K]

That's true but short range models bring those up later this evening. Deep layer shear is weaker with southeastward extent. I would expect things to weaken but very gradually, and if we see a nice cold pool form then we could get scattered severe reports well into the overnight.

Agree, this looks like a pretty classic mid summer style cold front passage, modest severe threat early on transitioning into a linear mcs as the night progresses with scattered severe reports persisting into the overnight.

[L.B. LaForce]

No doubt a lot of lightning from these storms. Check out this persons lightning detector: http://wx.w0wdx.com/wxwasp2.php

[cyclone77]

The storms have only moved about 30 miles southeast of their original NE/SW positioning. That's very slow mean movement.

The sun is now dipping below the anvil tops moving in from the west.

[wisconsinwx]

Thanks man. Looks like it might be game on still as my tummy thought this am. Some nasty stuff popping out west and hopefully they come through here for you, GL!

Yeah.. I'm not thrilled about the forecast either thurs/fri but it looks like we're in the prime spot for rains and a nasty lake breeze. Guess me and the wife will be getting that painting done we put off instead of boating.. What crap luck for her first 2 vacation days of the YR.. And she had to work extra late tonight so no tailgating before the brewers game now.

Thank you! I might have spoken a little too soon on timing. That cluster of storms is moving pretty slowly so I think around 10 or 11 should be a good bet, so it should be fine for the game.

As for Friday, earlier this week you said you wanted a rainy Friday, so I'm sorry to hear of the sudden change in tune, as it starts to look more likely to occur.

[on_wx]

Radar screen capture over Toronto 45 minutes ago. Listening to the scanner right now, multiple reports of damage, a gas leak, and injuries on the northeast and eastern side of Toronto. A meso popped up and I've been plotting damage reports from the scanner and they essentially follow the rotation path over to the lake.

[Hoosier]

Radar screen capture over Toronto 45 minutes ago. Listening to the scanner right now, multiple reports of damage, a gas leak, and injuries on the northeast and eastern side of Toronto. A meso popped up and I've been plotting damage reports from the scanner and they essentially follow the rotation path over to the lake.

Hopefully SSC checks in.

[cyclone77]

The areas just northwest of Dodgeville Wisconsin have been sitting under 50DBZ+ for almost an hour. Another cluster of cells has blown up just to the west and is moving right over those same areas. Definitely gonna be some flash flood concerns in this area.