SmokeEater Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yes, I know, it's for NY State, lol. Posting it for our Canadian posters in the area of the MCS. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN-CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 080422Z - 080545Z MONITORING MCS/CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN-CENTRAL NY. A RELATIVELY SMALL QUASI-LINEAR MCS /ROUGHLY 50-60 MILES IN WIDTH/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS/GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO AS OF 0415Z. WITH A FORWARD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KT...WELL-ORGANIZED CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING A REAR INFLOW JET AND RADAR IMPLIED/SURFACE ANALYZED COLD POOL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THIS MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A LOW LEVEL MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. HERE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F...WITH A CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETA-E FEED FROM THE WEST PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT /4500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ NOTED AS PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FORM ALPENA/DETROIT MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MCS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKER SHEARED/PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO WESTERN NY IN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE ALOFT WERE NOTED IN THE 00Z BUFFALO OBSERVED RAOB. REGARDLESS...THE EXISTING FORWARD MOMENTUM /40 KT/ AND EXISTING ORGANIZATION OF THE MCS MAY YIELD A DAMAGING WIND/PERIODIC HAIL THREAT INTO WEST-CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES. IF MCS SUSTENANCE CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ..GUYER.. 06/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Smokeater they have severe thunderstorm warnings up right now. The storm just barely clipped me Anyway, the lightning is unbelievable continuous flashing This is phenomenal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 If we can get a stronger cap on friday, I would likely chase that setup if the GFS were to verfiy, too much ongoing precip right now in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I think Environment Canada just tried to issue a tornado warning, no "tornado warning for: hamilton" and it's not even showing on the website. I just got an email for it. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on58 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:25 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 1:20 AM WEATHER RADAR SHOWS AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF HAMILTON. ROTATION SHOWING ON THE RADAR AND A SPOTTER REPORT INDICATES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORM IS HEADING SOUTHWARD AT 60 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 OK I just got a report of a tornado in Hamilton from 25 minutes ago, they tried to issue the warning, failed, then reissued it 20 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 thats sad, very sad . Watch just issued for the MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 OK I just got a report of a tornado in Hamilton from 25 minutes ago, they tried to issue the warning, failed, then reissued it 20 minutes later. At 125am EDT Environment Canada sent out this bulletin, doesn't specify what warning it is or where it is for. SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:25 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 1:20 AM WEATHER RADAR SHOWS AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF HAMILTON. ROTATION SHOWING ON THE RADAR AND A SPOTTER REPORT INDICATES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORM IS HEADING SOUTHWARD AT 60 KM/H. At 148am EDT, 23 minutes later, Environment Canada corrects the warning so it gets issued, but by now the storm isn't even in Hamilton. SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:48 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON. AT 1:30 AM WEATHER RADAR SHOWS AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF HAMILTON. A SPOTTER REPORTED A POTENTIAL TORNADO AND THE RADAR IS INDICATING SAME. THE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 50 KM/H. Amazing work Environment Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Well, as I listen to the scanner from Hamilton, multiple trees and hydro lines down across the city, multiple units being requested to some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Well, as I listen to the scanner from Hamilton, multiple trees and hydro lines down across the city, multiple units being requested to some areas That's not good, especially since Hamilton is a very large city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That's not good, especially since Hamilton is a very large city. There hasn't been any reports on injuries or people trapped, but a lot of structural and infrastructure damage Shame it took 23 minutes for the tornado warning to be issued. Just another penny in the jar with EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 There hasn't been any reports on injuries or people trapped, but a lot of structural and infrastructure damage Shame it took 23 minutes for the tornado warning to be issued. Just another penny in the jar with EC. Even without the injuries or people trapped, the infrastructure damage is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Even without the injuries or people trapped, the infrastructure damage is never good. I know the guy who phoned in the possible tornado. He saw green flashes approaching then the winds suddenly whirled around and a tree came down. Large parts of Hamilton have no power right now, will be interesting to see what the news brings in the morning. Hopefully they make light of the fact the tornado warning was late 23 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 http://ruc.noaa.gov/...&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Sorry, I hope this works. This might be your lucky day.. I got a good feeling for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Models did well depicting weak line this morning and continue to advertise more robust line firing this afternoon/early evening and then sliding south into northern Illinois overnight. Severe threat pretty low down this way, but decent back building potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Models did well depicting weak line this morning and continue to advertise more robust line firing this afternoon/early evening and then sliding south into northern Illinois overnight. Severe threat pretty low down this way, but decent back building potential. Well, looks like my convectional thoughts came to fruition. Hopefully it's out of here by mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Well, looks like my convectional thoughts came to fruition. Hopefully it's out of here by mid morning. a weak dying line has been modeled for some time now and will have a negligible effect on instability. Your problem was and still is, that you are too far north and east, best forcing will be well to your southwest. Liking Ottumwa to Madison right now, but might shift slightly south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 a weak dying line has been modeled for some time now and will have a negligible effect on instability. Your problem was and still is, that you are too far north and east, best forcing will be well to your southwest. Liking Ottumwa to Madison right now, but might shift slightly south of there. Main problem with this area of convection is, despite its weakening nature, it will keep the clouds around for the morning, but you are probably right. In terms of location, I still like much of Southern Wisconsin, including just west of Milwaukee (not the county itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Main problem with this area of convection is, despite its weakening nature, it will keep the clouds around for the morning, but you are probably right. It's early, instability is already present and once the nocturnal llj fades, they'll die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 More storms are actually forming near and just west of Madison. I'm almost to the point where I hope these storms keep their intensity and can finally reach us because I have low confidence in tonight's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 some of the clouds from the storms out west are trying to work eastward, some relief from the heat would be nice. Although I do want a shot at some nice storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 More storms are actually forming near and just west of Madison. I'm almost to the point where I hope these storms keep their intensity and can finally reach us because I have low confidence in tonight's potential. That crap is pissing us off... prob could roll the dice and head west on 94 with the boat but I know my luck.. I can almost guarantee you MKE will have a T-Storm warning issued tonight. When I have a gut feeling this strong its hardly eva wrong. look for a bowme to roll through mke...hopefully for you its not a passing out one when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That crap is pissing us off... prob could roll the dice and head west on 94 with the boat but I know my luck.. I can almost guarantee you MKE will have a T-Storm warning issued tonight. When I have a gut feeling this strong its hardly eva wrong. look for a bowme to roll through mke...hopefully for you its not a passing out one when it gets here. It's going to be hard watching the deep convection Eastern Iowa while a couple turds pass through Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 a weak dying line has been modeled for some time now and will have a negligible effect on instability. Your problem was and still is, that you are too far north and east, best forcing will be well to your southwest. Liking Ottumwa to Madison right now, but might shift slightly south of there. SPC agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 We have yet to really have even partial sunshine, but I guess the atmosphere is unstable enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 We have yet to really have even partial sunshine, but I guess the atmosphere is unstable enough. Dewpoints on the low side but 90 degrees is pretty good for having cloud issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Environment Canada is investigating two possible tornadoes. One 10 miles east of my location, and the other in the city of Hamilton. http://swo.ctv.ca/se...08/?hub=SWOHome That was a wicked storm last night. Here is a radar shot. It just barely clipped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The new RUC pretty much just extends the line of storms as far east as Madison and Fon du Lac. Figures. The problem is the source region for the line of storms coming towards us is for West Bend and Sheboygan, whose temperatures are in the upper 70s and dewpoints around 60 or slightly below, which may not be enough instability, even though it is warm in Milwaukee proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The new RUC pretty much just extends the line of storms as far east as Madison and Fon du Lac. Figures. The problem is the source region for the line of storms coming towards us is for West Bend and Sheboygan, whose temperatures are in the upper 70s and dewpoints around 60 or slightly below, which may not be enough instability, even though it is warm in Milwaukee proper. hi res nmm blows up a nice line from MKE southwest, sinking south over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That crap is pissing us off... prob could roll the dice and head west on 94 with the boat but I know my luck.. I can almost guarantee you MKE will have a T-Storm warning issued tonight. When I have a gut feeling this strong its hardly eva wrong. look for a bowme to roll through mke...hopefully for you its not a passing out one when it gets here. Gonna fail bad like the water pump on the outboard motor today.. Guess I'll pull the cooler from the boat and get a head start to the tailgate drinking at the Crew game tonight.. Congrats, Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 THE STORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE OBVIOUS CREATED SOME LOCALIZEDCOOLING ALOFT AND THUS REDUCED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOMEWHAT.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 97 TO 104 BUTTHE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED INTO THE 87 TO 93 RANGE. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS A VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RUC TRENDS ARE ALL POINTING TO RAPID TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PER THE RUC SHOULD JUST BE ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST CWFA AROUND 21Z. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE DISCRETE CELLS WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. PRECIP LOADING IN THE DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY MODE TO PRODUCE ANY DAMAGING WINDS. THE HAIL THREAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. FCST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...STORM INITIATION WILL BE ABLE TO MODIFY THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE BACKING AT THE SFC. IF THIS OCCURS THEN HAIL NUCLEI WOULD HAVE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERE HAIL AT THE SFC IN SPITE OF FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13-14KFT. IF THE NEW STORMS CAN INTERACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER STORMS...EITHER IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE OR WIND...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO OCCURRING. THE INITIAL CELLS WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS THE RUC SUGGESTS A ZIPPER AFFECT OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS OCCURS AND FORECASTED PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR IN A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE THE MCS BEINGS A TRANSFORMATION INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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