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June 6-9th Severe Weather

Chicago Storm

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Amazing storm early this morning

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:38 AM EDT TUESDAY 7 JUNE 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

AN INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY REPORTS OF
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS NEARLY CONTINUOUS
INTENSE LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. THE CANADIAN LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK IDENTIFIED AN IMPRESSIVE 80,000 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THIS STORM.

FOLLOWING ARE SOME OF THE REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER RECEIVED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

TIME                LOCATION                EVENT

2:40 AM             GODERICH                GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL,
                                           43 MM RAIN

2:50 AM             RIPLEY (SE KINCARDINE)  TREES DOWN

~4:30 AM            GRAND BEND              50 MM RAIN

5:15 AM             LONDON                  102 KM/H WIND GUSTS

6:35 AM             CHATHAM                 2 CM HAIL

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

According to DTX updated HWO/Aviation Discussion, the lake breeze boundary may ignite an isolated severe storm this afternoon/evening. Right now the boundary looks to extend from DET northward through Western Macomb, NE Oakland, and SE Lapeer Counties.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Outside of the frequent lightning and dark green skies, it wasn't that windy here at the shore. The KBKL rain gauge has been broke for quite some time now, but probably an inch if rain when it's all done.

Saw a nice thunderstorm here, plenty of CG lightning with a surface inversion to better channel the sound of the thunder. Saw a brief period of pea sized hail and winds probably to 40-45MPH that took down a lot of small limbs/branches, but nothing large.

Definitely a lot of storm reports sent into CLE this morning. Mostly wind damage and marginal hail, although there was a 2" hail report out in Lorain county and "numerous trees and power lines down across Trumbull county" which suggest locally more intense severe weather accompanied this MCS.

http://www.crh.noaa....on=1&glossary=0

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

According to DTX updated HWO/Aviation Discussion, the lake breeze boundary may ignite an isolated severe storm this afternoon/evening. Right now the boundary looks to extend from DET northward through Western Macomb, NE Oakland, and SE Lapeer Counties.

There is some CU south of west of Detroit, but nothing near Detroit along the Lake Breeze boundary:

post-525-0-01777000-1307474133.jpg

Maybe some subsidence behind the MCS that moved just to your east this morning keeping things from popping thus far?

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Maybe some subsidence behind the MCS that moved just to your east this morning keeping things from popping thus far?

Well besides that the atmosphere's firmly capped anyway with 700mb temps of 9*C.

One would need something much stronger than a lake breeze to fire off something with that type of warm air aloft.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

The only CU we had was around noon-1PM, but skies have been clear since.

There is some CU south of west of Detroit, but nothing near Detroit along the Lake Breeze boundary:

Maybe some subsidence behind the MCS that moved just to your east this morning keeping things from popping thus far?

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

305 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM TO HIGH.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL TRYING TO GENERATE QPF WITH

ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WEST OF

THERE MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THIS

AREA LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH HAS TO DEAL WITH STRONG CAPPING. WOULD

TAKE STRONG LIFT IN THIS LAYER UP TO 700MB TO GENERATE ANY ELEVATED

CONVECTION. WITHOUT ANY REAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING

MECHANISMS TO HELP OUT...FEEL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW.

LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 925MB

TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 20S CELSIUS RANGE. WENT WITH LOWER

TO MID 70S.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY

LOWER 90S. THIS IS FROM COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB

TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE

AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN A BIT

DURING THE AFTERNOON KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S...WITH

SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE

ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE CLOSE AND

LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS

THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF

2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 TO 40

KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAP ERODES BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE

NORTHWEST AREAS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION FORMING ALONG

AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WITH

SUPERCELLS A GOOD BET. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS STRONG...ALONG

WITH HIGH CAPE IN THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL GROWTH ZONE. LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD

NOT BE RULED OUT...WITH MEAN LAYER LCLS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.

WENT LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH

SEVERE WORDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY

EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD AS IT

PUSHES SOUTHEAST. HIGH CAPES...MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND MODERATE

TO STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. STRONGEST SHEAR LOOKS TO BE

ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DISCRETE AT THE

ONSET EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO AN

ADVANCING SQUALL LINE...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG

THE LEADING EDGE. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN PUSH THE COLD

FRONT SOUTHEAST BY 06Z...BUT THE NAM IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. FOCUS

THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND

THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON

THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA

AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB WAA GRADUALLY

INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON

THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND

POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH

BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND

ECMWF BOTH SHOW QPF THURSDAY EVENING. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS

INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WHICH IS

DEFINITELY SUFFICENT ENOUGH FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH IA

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A

WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATE

LINE. AT THIS POINT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED

ON FRIDAY UNLESS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CAN REACH INTO SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY

SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.

UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN LATER SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND

DRIER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE

WEEKEND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 C...RESULTING IN BELOW

NORMAL TEMPS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS 850 MB WINDS SWITCHING

AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH WAA ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE

MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE TRANSITIONING

TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY

FOR ANY WAA. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES VERSUS THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FOR THE EARLIER WAA AND

PRECIP. EITHER WAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE BACK IN

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

Looks like a decent little severe event for most of Southern Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Of course, I get the feeling something will go wrong. Leftover convection from overnight?

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Storms are starting to pop in North Dakota. This is a situation where storms are overly sheared. The storms are running toward a low-surface based CAPE environment, but the deep layer shear is 40-70 knots. The initial storms will probably be ripped apart by shear.

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London snowsquall

London snowsquall

Posted
Posted

Amazing storm early this morning

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:38 AM EDT TUESDAY 7 JUNE 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

AN INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY REPORTS OF
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS NEARLY CONTINUOUS
INTENSE LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. THE CANADIAN LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK IDENTIFIED AN IMPRESSIVE 80,000 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THIS STORM.

FOLLOWING ARE SOME OF THE REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER RECEIVED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

TIME                LOCATION                EVENT

2:40 AM             GODERICH                GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL,
                                           43 MM RAIN

2:50 AM             RIPLEY (SE KINCARDINE)  TREES DOWN

~4:30 AM            GRAND BEND              50 MM RAIN

5:15 AM             LONDON                  102 KM/H WIND GUSTS

6:35 AM             CHATHAM                 2 CM HAIL

Power was knocked out to 10,000 people in London early this morning with these storms, with mutliple trees, tree limbs and power lines down throughout the city. An incredible lightning show that probably lasted up to 2 hours locally, and the line of storms really packed a punch considering the time of the morning that it struck. I certainly wasn't expecting anything like that when I went to bed and I wasn't up when 'On_Wx' posted the watch info from Env. Canada around 1:30 am, so the 4:30 AM thunder was a big surprise and wake-up call.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Power was knocked out to 10,000 people in London early this morning with these storms, with mutliple trees, tree limbs and power lines down throughout the city. An incredible lightning show that probably lasted up to 2 hours locally, and the line of storms really packed a punch considering the time of the morning that it struck. I certainly wasn't expecting anything like that when I went to bed and I wasn't up when 'On_Wx' posted the watch info from Env. Canada around 1:30 am, so the 4:30 AM thunder was a big surprise and wake-up call.

It was a pretty incredible MCS that's now in North Carolina. KW missed out on the worst of the line, but some of the pictures and videos coming out of southwestern Ontario are just incredible with how much damage the area sustained. From about Woodstock to west and southwest of London and towards Chatham apparently there are hundreds or more trees and hydro lines down.

I wasn't expecting any severe weather either. The watch came as a total surprise and I honestly brushed it off. And the lightning, just unreal. From about 2am the sky began to light up as the storms were coming off the Lake and the lightning continued until after 6am. About 330-615am there was constant lightning in the KW area. Nothing like what happened across Lambton and Middlesex counties, though. Nearly every lightning marker down that way was for over 100 strikes per hour. EC detected 80,000 strikes.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Yes, That was pretty good over this way too.

MCS are not common here but two in last four days is great. Maybe something tonight as well.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Also interesting to note that Exeter WSO radar has been offline since this morning. That area took a hit from the damaging winds and quarter to golf ball sized hail. Maybe the storms had something to do with it, especially since many are still without power in the area.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow's event just starting to get into the RUC's range, and the reflectively goes from nothing to this: http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/displayMap.cgi?keys=ruc7t:&runtime=2011060723&plot_type=cref_sfc&fcst=24&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC Model Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1&wjet=1

in two hours.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

There's yet another MCS over Lake Huron, getting ready to sweep across portions of southeast Ontario.

This one looks to probably go North and East of the area that was hit last night, looks more like Kitchener/Waterloo over to Hamilton areas could get it in the next few hours along with Buffalo unless it makes a hard right like last nights MCS.

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smoof

smoof

Posted
Posted

There's yet another MCS over Lake Huron, getting ready to sweep across portions of southeast Ontario.

What an exciting time for our Ontario friends... maybe the 3rd strong MCS in 4 days or so! I wish I would get one here in Central Michigan, the garden is getting very dry and needs a lot of watering but the pump here sucks so it takes forever to manually water everything.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

This is really strange??? Sounds like it should be a warning?

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:30 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 JUNE 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
=NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
=NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY.

     A VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM NEAR BETWEEN WALKERTON AND MILDMAY
     HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
     HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE TO BE NEAR
     HARRISTON IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

This is really strange??? Sounds like it should be a warning?

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:30 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 JUNE 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
=NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
=NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY.

     A VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM NEAR BETWEEN WALKERTON AND MILDMAY
     HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
     HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE TO BE NEAR
     HARRISTON IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.

I think there should be at least Severe Warnings with that complex.

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Torontonian

Torontonian

Posted
Posted

What an exciting time for our Ontario friends... maybe the 3rd strong MCS in 4 days or so! I wish I would get one here in Central Michigan,

Ya 3 strong MCS in 4 days is almost unheard of around here.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I am so conditioned to seeing these things falling apart after Michigan was hit.

This is heading right for Toronto will see if Lake Ontario will kill it as usual.

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