cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Pretty much a non-event here as it turns out. Outflow boundary produced less than 20mph winds, and the storm that just moved through didn't have any wind at all and only moderate rain lol. My concerns about SPC being too far southeast with the higher probabilities turned out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Watching my weather station right now...OFB should be here, if not, really close. so far only 8 mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The heat burst that was over Saginaw Bay earlier is now impacting Bad Axe. Temps have gone from 73 to 82 over the last hour and dews have fallen from 64 to 55. Winds are also starting to pick up. http://www.weather.g...story/KBAX.html Now 86/55. Winds gusting to 27 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Thunderstorms rapidly developing along the outflow north of Lansing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Whooo!!! make that 29mph haha. Hit the window with some good force though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 talk about an overperforming storm from what I thought we would get..I went out west of batavia to near rt 47 and south of main street and watched good lightning south of the line of storms for a good 20 mins and the outflow winds well south of this thing were crazy, probably sustained at 45mph winds gusting to 55mph, had to hold the tripod up and walking wasn't too easy a few times. Then the downpours started along with dime/marble sized hail for about 4 minutes and I'd guess at 65mph max gust but thats just a guess. Overall, well worth the 15 min drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Thunderstorms rapidly developing along the outflow north of Lansing. Yep. Doubt they'll get too strong, but it's fascinating to watch on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Still getting some moderate to heavy rain and a nice light show. These convective events nearly always overperform around here in terms of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 52 mph wind gust at Saginaw, along with heavy rain (no thunder or lightning observed). METAR KMBS 090453Z 30020G45KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR SCT014 BKN046 OVC080 20/19 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 30045/0445 RAB42 SLP115 P0019 T02000194 403440200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 65 mph gust measured in Battle Creek from the OFB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 At 1 AM, it's still 86 at Bad Axe, Detroit City, and Selfridge AFB. 84 at Troy, Pontiac, Monroe, and Lambertville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I decided to make a weather map http://www.thezach.net/blog/my-weather-map-of-tonight/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 New warning east of Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 At 1 AM, it's still 86 at Bad Axe, Detroit City, and Selfridge AFB. 84 at Troy, Pontiac, Monroe, and Lambertville. At least now it's a dry heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I decided to make a weather map http://www.thezach.n...map-of-tonight/ I know in the Wichita and OKC warning area, they will issue High Wind Warnings for outflow boundaries like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I decided to make a weather map http://www.thezach.n...map-of-tonight/ Nice map. IWX sure seems to like issuing warnings. They're maybe the most warning-happy NWSFO out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Numerous cells seem to be firing up along the boundary now....CAPE still at 2000 across SEMI... not expecting much but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Will be interested to see how long this outflow boundary keeps going. Not really showing any signs of slowing down and current extrapolation would bring it in here in slightly less than 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448... VALID 090445Z - 090615Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 CONTINUES. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND AND SERN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 441 AND 448. A LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD TO NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL IND AND SE LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE MCS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SRN PART OF THE MCS. THIS ADDS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice map. IWX sure seems to like issuing warnings. They're maybe the most warning-happy NWSFO out there. Ya, def: Oh, wait. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 more storms heading into northern IL around the DVN area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This is a perfect time where the new ob site KRZL (Rensselaer) will come in handy here. Outflow winds do seem to be losing some punch as IKK only gusting to 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looking ahead at tomorrow, looks like NW MO/NE KS/SW IA/SE NE could be prime for some evening tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looking ahead at tomorrow, looks like NW MO/NE KS/SW IA/SE NE could be prime for some evening tornadoes. The damn river.. I unfortunately have to work so won't be able to chase tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Man, perfect example of shear being too weak relative to the instability, resulting in updrafts getting tilted rearward WRT the storm motion, limiting how strong/organized the updrafts can be. Not many of these storms are even pushing 30-35k feet, and while I wasn't around looking at such things a couple of hours ago, I'm sure the tops were much higher earlier: Bulk Richardson Numbers really tell the story, 140+ in the vicinity of the OFB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 KFNT 090526Z AUTO 29026G66KT 260V330 9SM VCTS SQ FEW048 BKN080 28/19 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 28066/0526 LTG DSNT NW-E TSB21 PRESRR Gust to 75 within the hour at Flint. KCFS 090514Z AUTO 29032G47KT 5SM HZ SCT018 SCT047 OVC090 25/15 A2989 RMK AO2 54 in Caro bout 40 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 KFNT 090526Z AUTO 29026G66KT 260V330 9SM VCTS SQ FEW048 BKN080 28/19 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 28066/0526 LTG DSNT NW-E TSB21 PRESRR Gust to 75 within the hour at Flint. If this won't get Lisa to post then nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND... ..MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...EXTENDING INTO NRN AZ...LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...IN LINE WITH LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN I-70 ACROSS KS PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A 45-50KT H5 SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS NERN NM AT 12Z INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 10/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NERN KS INTO SRN IA/NRN MO. STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING ACROSS KS WILL ENSURE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS KS WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY MATURE INTO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER NERN KS AFTER 21Z WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS A RESULT A REGIONAL POCKET OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM NERN KS/SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ONE OR MORE MCSS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 100F ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS/NWRN OK INTO NWRN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT SHOULD FAVOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN KS TO SRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST ACROSS NRN 1/2-2/3 OF CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...N AND W OF RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS. MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN ID BORDER IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES DAY-1...CROSSING NRN PLAINS AND NEB DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS DAY-2...THEN ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN MN/LS REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING OVER PAC COAST STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY SERIES OF SHORTWAVES NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PAC JUST S OF GULF OF AK. IN SRN STREAM...TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER 4-CORNERS REGION IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AS IT EJECTS NEWD DAY-1...WITH WEAK REMNANTS MOVING THROUGH BROADER-SCALE RIDGING OVER LOWER MI AND LOWER GREAT LAKES DAY-2. UPSTREAM WAVE OFFSHORE NRN BAJA WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY ENEWD...WEAKENING AND REACHING ERN NM AROUND END OF PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN ONT TO LOWER MI TO CENTRAL/SWRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO PA/OH THROUGH EARLY DAY-2 AND STALL THERE...WHILE RETREATING NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN INDIANA. BY 11/00Z...EXPECT FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INDUCED BY NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN IA/NWRN IL REGION...WARM FRONT EWD OVER MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION...COLD FRONT WSWWD ACROSS SERN KS AND NRN/WRN OK TO ERN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE SHOULD INTERACT FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL KS OR NRN OK...EXTENDING SSWWD OVER WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN LM/WRN LOWER MI BY 11/12Z. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION MAY BE SHUNTED SOMEWHAT FARTHER S ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM OK TO MI BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS... MCS MAY CARRY OVER FROM DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS IA...MOVING EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS LM AREA TO LOWER MI DURING DAY. WHILE SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF SFC WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAINTAINED OR REDEVELOPING DURING DAY ALSO WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL. SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE DURING AFTERNOON...CENTERED ON CORRIDOR FROM ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO TO SERN IA/NRN IL. DAMAGING WIND AND OCNL HAIL ARE MAIN CONCERNS. WARM-SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STG PRE-STORM DIABATIC HEATING...RESULTING IN MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK DIURNALLY...WITH CURVED BUT SMALL HODOGRAPHS. PRESENCE OF MRGL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF SLOW-MOVING FRONT WITH DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW...MULTICELL BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD DOMINATE. MORE DENSE CONCENTRATION OF SVR THREAT MAY EXIST IN THIS SWATH...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING OF STORM MODE PRECLUDE SUCH CORRIDOR FROM BEING DRAWN ATTM. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SWWD ALONG FRONT AND ISOLATED ALONG DRYLINE. HIGHER CLOUD BASES ATOP PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER/HOTTER/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD WANE NOCTURNALLY...FIRST NEAR DRYLINE IN EARLY EVENING AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 0126 AM TSTM WND DMG FLINT 43.02N 83.69W 06/09/2011 GENESEE MI 911 CALL CENTER CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS FLINT AND GENESEE COUNTY No surprise here with that 75 mph gust at KFNT. 1036 PM TSTM WND DMG TEMPLE 44.03N 85.02W 06/08/2011 CLARE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT CLARE COUNTY 911 REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. HARDEST HIT AREAS ARE TEMPLE AND LAKE GEORGE. This county had a tornado warning earlier this evening too. 1241 AM TSTM WND GST BATTLE CREEK 42.32N 85.19W 06/09/2011 M65.00 MPH CALHOUN MI TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED ON A HAND HELD ANEMOMETER AT 24TH STREET SOUTH AND TERRITORIAL. Here is that 65 mph gust that someone was looking for earlier from BTL, not that BTL needs any more wind damage after last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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