Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The next muli-day threat associated with another wave moving across the northern areas/Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 It looks like the 0z NAM has a southeastward moving MCS coming across southern WI/northern IL later monday night into tuesday morning with a good amount of instability to work with even after the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Pretty much non-stop active weather since February for MI. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Pretty much non-stop active weather since February for MI. Awesome. Very true..Although I would suspect this gravy train will come to a screeching halt soon. Drought and Sizzling July-Aug???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Good setup for eastern Montana tomorrow. It's the only place3 in the country that will get strong height falls any time in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 As has already been stated, the setup across Montana looks extremely favorable for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 As has already been stated, the setup across Montana looks extremely favorable for today. Agree, I wouldn't be shocked if E. Wisconsin/North Central MI gets a tornado or 2 especially if there is any lake breeze interactions with convection late this afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Have a feeling SE MT could put on one of the better chase days of 2011 tomorrow. Those hodographs are fairly insane, with due easterly surface flow veering to southwesterlies aloft, all in the presence of 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE. Upslope magic can occur with far less impressive parameters, so I'll be watching this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Agree, I wouldn't be shocked if E. Wisconsin/North Central MI gets a tornado or 2 especially if there is any lake breeze interactions with convection late this afternoon/evening Yeah kinda random for me to be looking at this threat but NE WI and the U.P. looks kinda interesting if a lone storm can interact with a boundary (or as you mentioned, the Lake Breeze). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Some nice severe morning convection that has fired across Central Wisconsin, no model had forecasted these storms. Few >2.00" hail reports in the past hour too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Here's to hoping someone gets good pictures of the storms in Montana later today...I still have this article bookmarked because it has some of the best shots I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Not your standard Central forum supercell beachball hail and tornado type threat, wind energy near zero, storms will ingest their own outflow and die, but CAPE that could exceed 6000 J/Kg at max heating, a near 30ºF delta between expected afternoon temps and dewpoint, I see brief downburst wind gusts (rain loading as well, look at the PW), and while shear is near nil, who knows if colliding boundaries might produce brief spin-ups. Hard to see them making it to the ground, when its around 100ºF, bases will be rather high... Been almost 3 years since 50 knot winds, even in gusts, IMBY, and that wasn't even a thunderstorm. Today could be the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 We have a "significant chance" of storms on Wed night into Thursday, according to NWS LOT. STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS REPRESENTS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BREAK THE GRIP OF THE HEAT MID-WEEK. EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST LOOK RATHER WET ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CREATE THE THREAT OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF ELEVATED AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. And then it looks like we get into another wet and cool couple of days after that. Friday's high is only going to be 67 degrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Maximum "calibrated severe thunderstorm" values in the Bitterroot Range of Montana. Something tells me that severe weather will be at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 GRR using the D word in the update, sounds like something interesting to follow later. Also its one of those days that catch people offguard around here in terms of svr weather, as its currently sunny with no haze and its also pretty dry thanks to the low DPs. Heard a few people today already saying how its nice to finally have some days with no chance of rain, could be in for a surprise later. "WARM FRONT MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE FOCUS AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERSECT IT AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS AND PROGRESSIVE DERECHO FORMATION THIS EVENING" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 At least we won't have to worry about bust complaints now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 At least we won't have to worry about bust complaints now? tomorrow is a high risk high reward day take of day for the svr. weenie, meaning while there is a good chance nothing forms and the cap wins out, if something were to go along a lake breeze, outflow boundry, etc. with the insane amount of instablity forecasted things could become quite violent for a lucky/unlucky few. That said, if there is some huge mcs lingering over the state well into the morning hours tomorrow, then who knows what happens with any lingering boundries plus possible cloud cover and limited heating. At least its interesting weather, thats all you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Are there any current signs that the cap will erode in Eastern Wisconsin? Currently we're under a slight risk of severe, but this is based upon the potential for the current cap to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 259 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO... EAST CENTRAL ELMORE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO... * UNTIL 330 PM MDT. * AT 252 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY...OR 17 MILES WEST OF FAIRFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WILL BE NEAR... BAUMGARTNER CAMPGROUND AROUND 325 PM MDT... GUNSIGHT PEAK AND FEATHERVILLE AROUND 330 PM MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Now the favorable environment is spreading east from the high terrain. Cumulus field is starting to expand in size as you head towards the plains of Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 tomorrow is a high risk high reward day take of day for the svr. weenie, meaning while there is a good chance nothing forms and the cap wins out, if something were to go along a lake breeze, outflow boundry, etc. with the insane amount of instablity forecasted things could become quite violent for a lucky/unlucky few. That said, if there is some huge mcs lingering over the state well into the morning hours tomorrow, then who knows what happens with any lingering boundries plus possible cloud cover and limited heating. At least its interesting weather, thats all you can ask for. Yep, chance of thunderstorms the next four days (actually the next seven but Fri-Sun looks more like a stratiform event)...have to believe most people will get a thunderstorm at least one of the days, even if it's not severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Now the favorable environment is spreading east from the high terrain. Cumulus field is starting to expand in size as you head towards the plains of Montana. Looks like some nasty cells trying to fire over yellowstone. When that moves out onto the plains it will get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Looks like some nasty cells trying to fire over yellowstone. When that moves out onto the plains it will get ugly. Going to be a later show out on the plains, but hi-res models are indicating some nasty cells before upscale growth into a complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 545 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM UNTIL 100 AM MDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 the storm south of Big Timber, MT south of I-90 is really starting to get going, looking good aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Could see something overnight/early tomorrow morning here...slight risk moved back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 If any storm is going to do something its going to be the one ENE of Big Timber, MT by about 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 a textbook left split, turn hard right, and really slow down with the supercell near Columbus, MT west of Billings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Man there is some serious juice across Wisconsin, 5000 J/kg SB CAPE with pockets of 7000+ J/kg MU CAPE. If something fires along with the shear in place it would go in a big way quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Amazing looking supercell - tornado warned - tracking towards Billings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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