bluewave Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 NWS AFD... area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 645 am PDT Sat Jun 4 2011 Update to climate section Discussion...as of 5:00 am PDT Saturday...forecast problem of the night was to try and get the radar back up and running. Turned some wrenches and pulled out some duct tape to get it spinning but unfortunately data may be intermittent through the weekend while we wait for new parts. For the moment its all systems go... Anomalous low pressure continues to spin off the coast as bizarre early June weather continues across the district. Already have broken the rainfall record at ksfo for today...only needing 0.16 inches which we've already surpassed. Rain is obviously still falling so final data wont be calculated and collected until midnight tonight for the calendar day but potential for several precipitation records to fall today. The record in the city is 0.49 which fell back in 1934 (and were already at 0.40 as of 5 am). Precipitation data for downtown sf is the most interesting since records go back to 1849 (think Gold rush days). Some of the more remote gages high up above Big Sur and in the Santa Cruz Mountains are already reporting 1-2 inches of rain with quarter inch per hour rain-rates overnight. (The Mining Ridge gage is likely contaminated by strong south winds causing erroneous bucket tips). Urban locations are seeing rain rates around a tenth per hour near the coast. The upshot off all this is that the period of heaviest rain is expected from now through about midday across the entire district as we'll be in the main upper diffluent region of the system. Still another 6 hours or so of moderate to heavy rain for the coast and hills until the main rain band shifts onshore. Inland valleys will be much drier with the S/southeast winds blowing around the surface low creating unfavorable orographics. So there will be a wide range in precipitation numbers across the district when all is said and done. Forecast will show steady rain tapering to showers this afternoon. Showers stay in the forecast overnight but we'll likely be in the dry slot with the main front to our east while the core of the upper low will stay offshore. Eventually the upper low will move onshore...very slowly...later Sunday afternoon into early Monday. During this time showers should become more widespread with isolated thunderstorms becoming a distinct possibility. Main threat will be small hail but will need to watch shear profiles as strong solar heating at the surface...steep lapse rates aloft and atmospheric dynamics will all come together later Sunday afternoon depending on exactly where the center of the low moves onshore. The latest NAM and GFS runs have trended farther south and slower...suggesting the upper low will move onshore over Monterey County/Big Sur/slo on Sunday night. Shower threat will linger through Monday morning as the low slowly moves east with slight chance through Monday afternoon. Forecast will finally turn dry Monday night through next week. However the 500 mb flow aloft remains cyclonic meaning inland temperatures will continue several degrees below normal for June. && Climate data... June 4th daily rainfall records: Location rainfall amount year new record ---------------------------------------------------------- Kentfield 1.00 1993 Napa 0.53 1993 Oakland City 0.10 1993 (0.51 as of 6 am) Oakland aiport 0.04 1984 (0.57 as of 6 am) Richmond 1.42 1993 sfo Airport 0.16 1947 (0.43 as of 6 am) San Francisco city 0.49 1934 (0.50 as of 6 am) San Jose 0.18 1993 (0.25 as of 6 am) Monterey coop site 0.14 1993 Salinas coop site 0.18 1993 Santa Cruz 0.42 1993 Monthly record data... the record daily rainfall for the month of June in San Francisco is 1.34 inches which occurred on June 2...1967. It's possible that San Francisco will pick up that much rain today. The record monthly rainfall in sf is 2.57 inches during June 1884. That record will be much harder to break with this one system alone. But other locations may have an easier time surpassing June record rainfall amounts... such as sfo Airport (0.86 inches)...San Jose (0.84 inches) and Salinas (0.59 inches). && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Anomalous indeed, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 i doubt any of the farmers out there mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Looks like Downtown SF is closing in on an inch of rain so far since this started last night..over an inch for the month. Maybe they will beat the June record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You wouldn't believe how jealous I am right now... stuck in dry sunny SoCal for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Anomalous indeed, wow. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 1258 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011 ...WINTERLIKE TRAVEL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... .AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BRING A THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO KINGS CANYON. CAZ096-050400- /O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0014.110606T0600Z-110606T1800Z/ SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON- 1258 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES * ELEVATION: ABOVE 7000 FEET. * TIMING: 11 PM PDT SUNDAY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TUOLOMNE MEADOWS...TIOGA PASS...HUNTINGTON LAKE * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ DURFEE WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 i doubt any of the farmers out there mind Actually, heavy rain in June is not generally welcomed by Orchardists-especially Cherry growers and other farmers who grow early season fruit and vegetables since it can damage the fruit and wet ground will slow the harvest. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You wouldn't believe how jealous I am right now... stuck in dry sunny SoCal for now. Well, it does look like you'll get some cloud cover from it and perhaps a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Nice to see another sexy XTC get some forum love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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