Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Still looks decent for severe to make it down into SNE late tomorrow aftn/evening. There also appears to be a chance for some sort of MCS or at least some sct activity possible into wrn areas this evening and then maybe later on tonight over the rest of SNE. However, those chances are highly dependent on what happens upstream today. yeah there's still that little theta-e bump that crosses through SNE overnight..it's a bit later now vs yesterday's runs but you can still see it there. i think pretty much the way you've described it is the way to look at it for today/tonight. look to see if any activity can fire off to the west this afternoon where the cap is weaker and maybe that stuff runs ESE into W MA/CT...and you get a couple of severe warned cells out of it...then see if that feature moving overhead can spark some kind of activity between like 10PM and 4AM. hrrr does have some isolated stuff out in W MA / NYS by 21z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Have a feeling we see some nice storms rolling NW to SE late this afternoon and evening. Wind damage biggest threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 yeah there's still that little theta-e bump that crosses through SNE overnight..it's a bit later now vs yesterday's runs but you can still see it there. i think pretty much the way you've described it is the way to look at it for today/tonight. look to see if any activity can fire off to the west this afternoon where the cap is weaker and maybe that stuff runs ESE into W MA/CT...and you get a couple of severe warned cells out of it...then see if that feature moving overhead can spark some kind of activity between like 10PM and 4AM. hrrr does have some isolated stuff out in W MA / NYS by 21z or so You should be somewhat intrigued by the next 36 hrs or so. This type of flow is great for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 You should be somewhat intrigued by the next 36 hrs or so. This type of flow is great for the Cape. yeah better set-up than i'm typically used to seeing. like to see that BL flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 yeah better set-up than i'm typically used to seeing. like to see that BL flow. Sometimes the south coast can do real well in these situations. Maybe the flow is a little more backed down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Sometimes the south coast can do real well in these situations. Maybe the flow is a little more backed down there. Yeah also helps just having the marine layer kept away....reduces the strength of the cape cod canal convection force field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yeah also helps just having the marine layer kept away....reduces the strength of the cape cod canal convection force field. However, I always wondered why that area near Sagamore and South Plymouth can get some good cells. Must be the exhaust from Messenger's John Deere creating powerful updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 However, I always wondered why that area near Sagamore and South Plymouth can get some good cells. Must be the exhaust from Messenger's John Deere creating powerful updrafts. No it's his leaf blower creating it's own CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 can see that region of very steep mid-level lapse rates that's going to advect eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours nicely on the morning soundings from BUF and DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I'm still interested in this evening.... model soundings are just nuts. Look toward the Dacks by 18z-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I'm still interested in this evening.... model soundings are just nuts. Look toward the Dacks by 18z-21z. Semi violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 God those NAM 12z soundings for tonight look impressive.. We need a damn trigger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Semi violently agree Stick a fork in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Stick a fork in this one Maybe after 6:00 or 7:00 tonight for storms if they come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 A lot of convection in Canada and MI, I wonder if that can hold into NE.. with these lapse rates and cape, we should see them explode if it comes in at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Looks like the gfs tries hard for some storms at hour 12 based on the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Stick a fork in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 A lot of convection in Canada and MI, I wonder if that can hold into NE.. with these lapse rates and cape, we should see them explode if it comes in at the right time If you're really watching the MI radars looking for storms, the only thing exploding will be your monitor when your fist goes through it. Tomorrow looks like a better day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 If you're really watching the MI radars looking for storms, the only thing exploding will be your monitor when your fist goes through it. Tomorrow looks like a better day. Yeah, upstream doesn't look too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Have a feeling we see some nice storms rolling NW to SE late this afternoon and evening. Wind damage biggest threat Viciously disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Viciously disagree. I hope he is right, however this is SNE and we need a good trigger. so much damn hot air , w flow, heights rising (or neutral, says box), no real solid mechanism for lift...these setups just don't work out too often. The actual parameters are very good, not often we see good lapse rates, >2000j/kg sbcape and o.k. wind field NNE, different story, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I hope he is right, however this is SNE and we need a good trigger. so much damn hot air , w flow, heights rising, no real solid mechanism for lift...these setups just don't work out too often. The actual parameters are very good, not often we see good lapse rates, >2000j/kg sbcape and o.k. wind field NNE, different story, of course. Yeah I'm not really expecting much of anything at all this evening...perhaps just a few isolated storms but that's it. I think though the biggest threat would be hail, not winds. WBZ/freezing heights are actually quite low, you have high helicity, and very steep ML lapse rates...not a great deal of speed shear...decent but I think everything points to more in the way of hail rather than damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 hrrr continues to break the cap this afternoon over NYS and pop a few cells, eventually driving them eastward into W MA and through CT. vis sat only just now starting to show some cu fields developing over central and far northern NYS, so it may be too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yeah I'm not really expecting much of anything at all this evening...perhaps just a few isolated storms but that's it. I think though the biggest threat would be hail, not winds. WBZ/freezing heights are actually quite low, you have high helicity, and very steep ML lapse rates...not a great deal of speed shear...decent but I think everything points to more in the way of hail rather than damaging winds. All of your drinking has made you go blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 All of your drinking has made you go blind Hail...big hail...large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yeah I'm not really expecting much of anything at all this evening...perhaps just a few isolated storms but that's it. I think though the biggest threat would be hail, not winds. WBZ/freezing heights are actually quite low, you have high helicity, and very steep ML lapse rates...not a great deal of speed shear...decent but I think everything points to more in the way of hail rather than damaging winds. wbz was like 11k on the 12z nam ...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 wbz was like 11k on the 12z nam ...heh I thought it was a little closer to 10K down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Well when instability stays or increases after sunset like this, you often get surprises. A little cooling at 500, and the whole ball game may change. Triggers arent always that obvious, especially when you get these instability numbers. Its low probability, but look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Well when instability stays or increases after sunset like this, you often get surprises. A little cooling at 500, and the whole ball game may change. Triggers arent always that obvious, especially when you get these instability numbers. Its low probability, but look out! Instability will be decreasing after sunset. 500mb is warming, not cooling, overall. Not sure about the last part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Instability will be decreasing after sunset. 500mb is warming, not cooling, overall. Not sure about the last part. The NAM still has 3500 JKG of SBcape up through 2:00 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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