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Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

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No I mean that the tstms cooled the airmass just a bit over eastern areas and the outflow pushed sw. Through the day over RI and CT the winds went around the horn from se to s and now sw. The airmass milled around and now is finally advecting out of here and being replaced by those higher dewpoints to our sw over se NY State. It's recovering. SW winds are good for the city.especially 230-250 direction.

Got ya.. I didn't really follow much last night and early this morning and woke up at 12..

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I think the tor threat is really marginal. The directional shear is really shallow too...just right near the ground as the 925mb winds have a pretty good westerly component. That's why we don't see the helicity values anywhere close to what was happening on 6/1.

I won't be surprised at a localized spinup as those storms go into the valleys so there could def be a warning or two go out at some point, but with high LCLs and the storms likely to line out more as we head through afternoon, the straight line winds seem a lot more likely. Just about every cell that got a warning on 6/1 stayed discrete.

I agree. There's enough low level shear for a spinup or two if any storms can stay discrete but that's definitely not the favored storm mode in this case.

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Just stay in the bean.. should be a pretty widespread event

Probably, but right now I'm leaning towards sticking it out here and then driving back later tonight after everything blows through. I'm still pretty tired after last night's action and need another nap.

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I agree. There's enough low level shear for a spinup or two if any storms can stay discrete but that's definitely not the favored storm mode in this case.

Storm mode quickly going linear so the threat for any spinups is probably heavily decreased...any supercells not lasting long...unless any pop ahead of the line. Perhaps something along the leading edge but not likely.

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Storm mode quickly going linear so the threat for any spinups is probably heavily decreased...any supercells not lasting long...unless any pop ahead of the line. Perhaps something along the leading edge but not likely.

This will be a pretty good line with embedded bow segments most likely.

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Big wind is my favorite nontornado event I want to see the trees bend like I did last year in Belmont

I lost halves of two 200 year-old maples in two storms last year (the last of which had me without power for four days). So--I like the wind, as long as it doesn't cause structural damages (or persons of course). On the plus side, I got a ton of wood from those two trees!

82.4/72

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0.31" in about 15 minutes at BTV... a nice 1.2"/hr rainfall rate.

Pouring here with lots of lightning. No hail or wind to speak of.... yet... looks like the core is off to my WSW. Probably going to miss the heaviest but this thing blew up quickly over downtown Burlington.

Nice returns off this bad boy now.

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