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Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

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This is precisely the product I had in mind; thanks! it also shows that west of ORH and E of ALB is Tor city in my estimation. The 700mh jet nosing in around 22z would mean some pretty darn good direction and linear shear profiles working together.

We'll see how it play out I suppose... SPC is currenlty hetching out a new watch box for us as we type.

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This is precisely the product I had in mind; thanks! it also shows that west of ORH and E of ALB is Tor city in my estimation. The 700mh jet nosing in around 22z would mean some pretty darn good direction and linear shear profiles working together.

We'll see how it play out I suppose... SPC is currenlty hetching out a new watch box for us as we type.

If they stay backed in those areas, that might be something to watch..although I'm not sure if it means much if these cells line out and race ese.

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If they stay backed in those areas, that might be something to watch..although I'm not sure if it means much if these cells line out and race ese.

I think the tor threat is really marginal. The directional shear is really shallow too...just right near the ground as the 925mb winds have a pretty good westerly component. That's why we don't see the helicity values anywhere close to what was happening on 6/1.

I won't be surprised at a localized spinup as those storms go into the valleys so there could def be a warning or two go out at some point, but with high LCLs and the storms likely to line out more as we head through afternoon, the straight line winds seem a lot more likely. Just about every cell that got a warning on 6/1 stayed discrete.

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We still have outflow type atmosphere right now. We gotta advect that out of here and get that airmass in NY and PA into this area. That's the only concern I have. Hopefully we can muster up those MLCAPES. We are slowly recovering, but still some work to do.

Winds here are southerly, but at the surface they're so light at this point, I'm not sure if that means anything.

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I think the tor threat is really marginal. The directional shear is really shallow too...just right near the ground as the 925mb winds have a pretty good westerly component. That's why we don't see the helicity values anywhere close to what was happening on 6/1.

I won't be surprised at a localized spinup as those storms go into the valleys so there could def be a warning or two go out at some point, but with high LCLs and the storms likely to line out more as we head through afternoon, the straight line winds seem a lot more likely. Just about every cell that got a warning on 6/1 stayed discrete.

Yeah it seems very shallow and good point about the LCL's. I think if the winds would stay more backed..it might aid in convergence for those tstms...not necessarily helicity as a line of storms moving ese at 40-50kts won't really care...save for a brief spin-up or two. Lots of WSW winds rpts too around the I-90 region which is much better than W or even WNW vectors that models had a day or two ago.

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Scott I'm a bit confused by all this talk about the air mass.. that little southerly shift is bad storms? marine crap? I heard you mention outflow... Logan is still wSW

SW is good for advecting the high dewpoints in here.

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Scott I'm a bit confused by all this talk about the air mass.. that little southerly shift is bad storms? marine crap? I heard you mention outflow... Logan is still wSW

No I mean that the tstms cooled the airmass just a bit over eastern areas and the outflow pushed sw. Through the day over RI and CT the winds went around the horn from se to s and now sw. The airmass milled around and now is finally advecting out of here and being replaced by those higher dewpoints to our sw over se NY State. It's recovering. SW winds are good for the city.especially 230-250 direction.

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