weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Paul, is that for BDL or region-wide? It's not very hot (81.9) but quite humid (DP of 71). Just got back in from Easton. Had a couple good claps of thunder during my presentation. I'm glad I didn't lose power for my PowerPoint. Hopefully will get some action here. That was looking at the mesoanalysis data on the SPC site...it was mainly for eastern NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 That 5000J MLCAPE is suspect and the result of MSV being 98/71 which I doubt. 4000 to 4500J is more realistic and very impressive out that way. I doubt they are 98/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like I'm in a good spot (in between albany and schenectady) for something in the next 45 minutes or so...sky to the west already starting to darken up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I doubt they are 98/71 The dewpoint seems more reasonable than the temp. Lots of stations are around 70 over. There is a large area of 20C+ 925mb dewpoints in PA and NY that area advecting this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like I'm in a good spot (in between albany and schenectady) for something in the next 45 minutes or so...sky to the west already starting to darken up a bit. Yeah that storm is tracking right into the northern half of the Capital District. Colonie, Nisky, Guilderland all going to be under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Low level winds aren't nearly as backed as that day...but there could be some local areas in the valleys that have winds right at the sfc backed more as we currently see in ALB so an isolated tor could happen. But it definitely looks like more of a straight line wind threat versus 6/1 when we were juiced for tornadoes. I still like to see the analysis if anyone has it. not sure I agree - lots of hourly obs came in at 190 degrees. Granted there are those in the 250 range, but the mean is dead SW, and the trough arrival is NW--SE; that conceptually puts 90 degrees of potential direction shear. 700mb shows an arrivING WNW wind max prior to CF and nearing 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Does havehave a stream line analysis product? I’d like to see the wind trajectories overall all… Decent gradient out there, perhaps more than modeled – I don’t know – but the feel of the day is starting to take on a June 1 vibe with nearing 90 and DP spiking underway... Trees are waving around pointing NE now. Here are 10m streamlines and 2m dp from the 16z RUC initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like I'm in a good spot (in between albany and schenectady) for something in the next 45 minutes or so...sky to the west already starting to darken up a bit. storms with hail just blasted the lake george area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 ALB is 17009KT...pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The dewpoint seems more reasonable than the temp. Lots of stations are around 70 over. There is a large area of 20C+ 925mb dewpoints in PA and NY that area advecting this way. Yeah that dewpoint seems about right given how they are in an area of ~70F dews...98F seems a tad high. Most of the 90's are down across NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I doubt they are 98/71 The MSV airport is at 1,400ft so yeah there is absolutely no way they are 98F unless that's on the tarmac with no sun shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 You can already see the break between ALB and RUT that is going to screw SNH (snowNH especially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Here are 10m streamlines and 2m dp from the 16z RUC initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It's probably gonna take another two hours or so for recovery in SNE. I think those lower dews we have are a result of the morning tstms. Theta-e ridge out west just ahead of those storms....hopefully they don't outrun the best instability and weaken later on. It's sort of a race. The dew here got unto 69 since dropped back to 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 5500 J/kg of Cape in NW NJ. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 been mulching since 8 am, working til 5. yay me! big big winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Like I said earlier..those tstms disrupted the wind field..especially in wrn MA, CT, and into ern NY. Outflow winds were ne down that way this morning. Now they are shifting around to se and s and will likely become more sw-w in a few hours. We were never supposed to have those winds like that, but you can see most other places north of the CT and RI border have west to wsw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like I'm in a good spot (in between albany and schenectady) for something in the next 45 minutes or so...sky to the west already starting to darken up a bit. The Pit split the uprights on the storms last night and were a hair's-breadth too far west for this morning's stuff. Hopefully this line heading toward the CD will make up for it. 82.4/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The storm near South Otselic, NY was just showing 4+ inch hail on KBGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Paul, if i get out early wanna chase? I messaged you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Like I said earlier..those tstms disrupted the wind field..especially in wrn MA, CT, and into ern NY. Outflow winds were ne down that way this morning. Now they are shifting around to se and s and will likely become more sw-w in a few hours. We were never supposed to have those winds like that, but you can see most other places north of the CT and RI border have west to wsw winds. yeah that analysis was two hours old too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Like I said earlier..those tstms disrupted the wind field..especially in wrn MA, CT, and into ern NY. Outflow winds were ne down that way this morning. Now they are shifting around to se and s and will likely become more sw-w in a few hours. We were never supposed to have those winds like that, but you can see most other places north of the CT and RI border have west to wsw winds. South winds gusting to 12 mph in SECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Paul, if i get out early wanna chase? I messaged you We can maybe meet up somewhere or something...my friend is still here and we are going to go somewhere...just not sure yet. We'll see what transpires over the next few hours. Perhaps BDL area if things look good here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 South winds gusting to 12 mph in SECT We still have outflow type atmosphere right now. We gotta advect that out of here and get that airmass in NY and PA into this area. That's the only concern I have. Hopefully we can muster up those MLCAPES. We are slowly recovering, but still some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 You can already see the break between ALB and RUT that is going to screw SNH (snowNH especially) No, I am getting hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Watch Likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 You can already see the break between ALB and RUT that is going to screw SNH (snowNH especially) Yup... watch me get screwed too. At least my kid can play his little league game tonight maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 We still have outflow type atmosphere right now. We gotta advect that out of here and get that airmass in NY and PA into this area. That's the only concern I have. Hopefully we can muster up those MLCAPES. We are slowly recovering, but still some work to do. DPs continue to drop at BID, down to 64 here, south wind doing it's marine thingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 We can maybe meet up somewhere or something...my friend is still here and we are going to go somewhere...just not sure yet. We'll see what transpires over the next few hours. Perhaps BDL area if things look good here? have hi mtext me his number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 DPs continue to drop at BID, down to 64 here, south wind doing it's marine thingy. localized differences. seems it's not the predominate flow - surface winds are all due W out this way, even on the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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