Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

there's a nice solid area of 50 knots on the 12z sounding at WMW...and looks like in general lots of 40+. i think even as recently as yesterday's early morning runs they were more like 30 to 40 knots?

It has steadily increased. Even Albany had like 45kts in the 700-500 area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OKX not impressed

HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 3000-5000 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX ANYWHERE FROM -5C TO -8C. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TROUBLE FINDING A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR VALUES QUITE LOW. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS.

Thankfully that's not our area ..When the watch goes up in the area..I guess they'll become impressed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anytime you're dealing with a pseudo-EML and those kind of mid level wind speeds you immediately have to think high end svr event

Yeah EML's in general heighten the awareness, but that is plenty good like you said. We'll see how it goes.

For some reason, the hi-res models are really targeting development along the I-90 corridor and points south, out in NY State. Might be some sort of pre frontal trough or left over boundary from last night's convection??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the RUC is correct, I think forced storms on boundaries or pulse severe away from boundaries, with gusty winds as the main threat. Winds too uni-speed and uni-directional in the fatter part of the CAPE region for really severe hail, and I would think only brief spin ups along boundary interactions would be likely.

But the RUC, or I, could be wrong...

post-138-0-65113200-1307630193.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both my daughters play up on that field now..One Monday night and the other Thursday..That grass is just unreal..Looks like my lawn.

I'm not much of a lawn guy, but that grass is pretty nice. These are the fields off of Rhodes rd., near Birch Grove School. There's some other field where the grass was so tall and thick that the balls barely rolled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Damage from the storms in the Federal Hill area of Providence (source: Greater City: PVD).

There was also a lot of damage in South Prov - some trees uprooted in the courtyard of Classical and Central High Schools - as well as trees and branches along Elmwood Ave.

Wow.

Great shots, Wonkis.

Wonder if any of the old trees near the zoo were damaged?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Friend up in ME last night said there was a once in a lifetime photo of the Northern lights above a thunderstorm. No camera available.

As a photographer a picture like that would be priceless. I have never seen a picture of norhern lights and lightning in a thunderstorm at the same time. Very rare indeed. Would love to have captured a time lapse image like that!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bring on the ef3 / ef4 debate:

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

:lol:

Forecast soundings look a touch veered for much tornado action, and not much speed/directional shear in the region of fat CAPE, so I'd say damaging winds if the most likely mode of severe, and really, if your trees go down in a 75 mph wind gust, it'll look just like an EF-0 hit the neighborhood, except the damage could be more widespread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast soundings look a touch veered for much tornado action, and not much speed/directional shear in the region of fat CAPE, so I'd say damaging winds if the most likely mode of severe, and really, if your trees go down in a 75 mph wind gust, it'll look just like an EF-0 hit the neighborhood, except the damage could be more widespread.

as kev would say....wooooosh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...