Damage In Tolland Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The situation this afternoon is going to be pretty tough...this is why the SPC held off on going moderate. This is where we actually probably want a downsloping flow, at least for a few hours just so we can dry things out a bit and get some more sun in here. Looking at some things too I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if some locations kept a more southerly component to their winds today, the low-level wind field isn't overly strong so 0-1km helicity might not be that great but if the 6z NAM is correct wind fields 0-3km helicity could be fairly high...this could really enhance the threat for large hail, especially if we see a few supercells. I imagine though once that s/w energy moves away things should quiet down for a few hours at least and given how warm things are already and how warm the low-level air mass is we should warm pretty quickly. Considering you called me crazy yesterday when I said there'd be storms with damaging wind the main threat..we should do just fine today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The situation this afternoon is going to be pretty tough...this is why the SPC held off on going moderate. This is where we actually probably want a downsloping flow, at least for a few hours just so we can dry things out a bit and get some more sun in here. Looking at some things too I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if some locations kept a more southerly component to their winds today, the low-level wind field isn't overly strong so 0-1km helicity might not be that great but if the 6z NAM is correct wind fields 0-3km helicity could be fairly high...this could really enhance the threat for large hail, especially if we see a few supercells. I imagine though once that s/w energy moves away things should quiet down for a few hours at least and given how warm things are already and how warm the low-level air mass is we should warm pretty quickly. you give this too much weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The situation this afternoon is going to be pretty tough...this is why the SPC held off on going moderate. This is where we actually probably want a downsloping flow, at least for a few hours just so we can dry things out a bit and get some more sun in here. Looking at some things too I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if some locations kept a more southerly component to their winds today, the low-level wind field isn't overly strong so 0-1km helicity might not be that great but if the 6z NAM is correct wind fields 0-3km helicity could be fairly high...this could really enhance the threat for large hail, especially if we see a few supercells. I imagine though once that s/w energy moves away things should quiet down for a few hours at least and given how warm things are already and how warm the low-level air mass is we should warm pretty quickly. Downslope flow will only dry out the lower levels. It will not dry out mid level cloud decks at 10,000ft. If anything, downslope will lower dews..not what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 you give this too much weight. It's probably good they did. MDT is the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yesterday/overnight/this morning is good example of modeling not being the be-all-end-all. humans and pattern recognition FTW. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Friend up in ME last night said there was a once in a lifetime photo of the Northern lights above a thunderstorm. No camera available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 just had a downpour and now the sun is out... swamp azz time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yesterday/overnight/this morning is good example of modeling not being the be-all-end-all. humans and pattern recognition FTW. LOL. Yeah was just thinking that. Always good to beat the machines..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Friend up in ME last night said there was a once in a lifetime photo of the Northern lights above a thunderstorm. No camera available. That had to be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 NAM has a squall line ripping through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yesterday/overnight/this morning is good example of modeling not being the be-all-end-all. humans and pattern recognition FTW. LOL. Yeah a couple of us all day thought the svr potl was there yesterday. Kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Friend up in ME last night said there was a once in a lifetime photo of the Northern lights above a thunderstorm. No camera available. Damn, that sucks. I did notice a kp index of 5, which typically means "game on" for the lights. Whereabout were they located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yesterday/overnight/this morning is good example of modeling not being the be-all-end-all. humans and pattern recognition FTW. LOL. Seriously. I really did not see to many robotic calls for what was seen last night. I expected a few to see a brief storm or 2, but it really overperformed. Kudos to the mets and weenies who called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This morning's convection is going to prime us for some steamy dew points this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Sun breaking through here. The race begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I gotta say....while the lower levels don't have much speed (thinking 925-850mb), the directional shear from the surface to 500mb is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This morning's convection is going to prime us for some steamy dew points this afternoon yeah minimally would think it's harder to mix out to those upper 50s/lower 60s tds the gfs was trying to do at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Sun is out now as this cirrus junk breaks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I gotta say....while the lower levels don't have much speed (thinking 925-850mb), the directional shear from the surface to 500mb is pretty impressive. seems the mid-level fields have come in progressively faster over the last 36 hours as well. nothing mind blowing but better than it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 . . . Hail from this morning. Sweet, betcha I missed it at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 seems the mid-level fields have come in progressively faster over the last 36 hours as well. nothing mind blowing but better than it looked. Almost 50kts at 500 and around 40kts at 700. That's good enough, especially given these high MLCAPES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Hole 3.....rockledge...west Hartford....I hear distant thunder to the ne....hope I get this round in before the bigger stuff gets here....nice temps now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Juicy dews, and warming up nicely upstream in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Almost 50kts at 500 and around 40kts at 700. That's good enough, especially given these high MLCAPES. Yeah that's great... combined with 4000 j/kg of CAPE lol I'll be interested to see how backed our boundary layer flow is this afternoon. Given the large amount of 0-6km bulk shear and high CAPE supercells are possible but a real nasty squall line seems most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Hole 3.....rockledge...west Hartford....I hear distant thunder to the ne....hope I get this round in before the bigger stuff gets here....nice temps now.... You might have to skip the beer cart every other hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 OKX not impressed HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 3000-5000 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX ANYWHERE FROM -5C TO -8C. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TROUBLE FINDING A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR VALUES QUITE LOW. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I think we'll find a trigger no problem with heights falling between 18z-00z and that s/w not too far to the north. I think most of SNE is in a good spot for svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Almost 50kts at 500 and around 40kts at 700. That's good enough, especially given these high MLCAPES. there's a nice solid area of 50 knots on the 12z sounding at WMW...and looks like in general lots of 40+. i think even as recently as yesterday's early morning runs they were more like 30 to 40 knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 You might have to skip the beer cart every other hole... No beer cart at rockledge....some town rule....bummer yes....sun peeking out now.....warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 OKX not impressed HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 3000-5000 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX ANYWHERE FROM -5C TO -8C. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TROUBLE FINDING A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR VALUES QUITE LOW. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. The trigger will be any cold pool that develops from tstms to their north. How many times has the MA looked capped, but tstms race through that area with wicked CAPES, thanks to a nice cold pool that forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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