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Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

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With all of that crap moving through last night, my driveway didn't even get wet... just a few big fat drops and that was it. Constant lightning to my north and to my south, as it split the uprights here. Heard a few rumbles this morning from 6-7:30, but nothing amazing. Congrats for those who got whacked last night!

I hope it's my turn later today.

On a side-note, I'm very glad that this has happened today, as I'm camping friday night atop Greylock. That would have sucked!

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I'm thinking the upper 90s are just not going to verify today...mid-90s in the valleys...near 90 at elevation....and low 90s elsewhere?

The soundings aren't particularly warm...800-850mb potential temps are around 307K.

Yeah, I could see it barely reaching 90 at my house and just a couple of degrees over further east in FIT, Leominster, etc

Still really gross out.

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03Z SREF is outputting 70 degree dews this aftn and evening for northern CT, southern MA, and northern RI.

It's been targeting that area as best MLCAPES too. WInds might be more sw there.

Interesting in that winds have been pretty strong here in the last 30 minutes after these shwrs/tstms left. Nothing like a wake low or anything, but they've been pretty strong.

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What is causing these showers/storms this morning?

Well the stuff that formed in VT and moved down here was from a vormtax moving se. Now, those tstms have shoved an outflow boundary towards your area and that's causing the sct cells to develop.

Starting to clear up to my nw now.

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Well the stuff that formed in VT and moved down here was from a vormtax moving se. Now, those tstms have shoved an outflow boundary towards your area and that's causing the sct cells to develop.

Starting to clear up to my nw now.

Yeah we had 2-3 distinct storms last night... a couple around 1am and then more around 5am. I love the nocturnal boomers.

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Days with active mornings tend to lead to active afternoons..I actually think it's a good sign. Last Wed is a great example..While you played catch with young boys we had 2 rounds of severe stoms esp in Mass

meh I think this is actually overblown actually...there have been plenty of days where we've had morning activity and got crap in the afternoon. It all depends on what's generating the storms and what the airmass is like prior to that boundary moving out.

Most of those days where that occurred we had some sort of cap in place...not sure how capped we will really be today...have to check.

The more storms that pop the more energy that gets drained and the more in the way of clouds we will have to deal with.

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Any damage in your yard?

Any good pics?

Other than lots of twigs and leaves, no. Considering the duration of the power outage, some large trees must've come down on the lines somewhere around. The hail with the second storm was during the middle of the night and with only a small flashlight to examine it, it was nearly impossible to take photos. I could tell the second storm was coming based on the approaching lightning display from the west. Kind of had to go old school...no radar, satellite, or internet weather forum to track it.

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meh I think this is actually overblown actually...there have been plenty of days where we've had morning activity and got crap in the afternoon. It all depends on what's generating the storms and what the airmass is like prior to that boundary moving out.

Most of those days where that occurred we had some sort of cap in place...not sure how capped we will really be today...have to check.

The more storms that pop the more energy that gets drained and the more in the way of clouds we will have to deal with.

The only thing that will zap energy is cloud cover. I think we have lapse rates that are plenty good enough for sure. It's funny because I think last night the HRRR runs were having random cells moving through SNE all morning.

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The only thing that will zap energy is cloud cover. I think we have lapse rates that are plenty good enough for sure. It's funny because I think last night the HRRR runs were having random cells moving through SNE all morning.

HRR was dead ballz on yesterday and last night. Even showing several lines moving thru the overnight.

Hopefully it's correct this afternoon. I'm in the mood for some wind damage

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The only thing that will zap energy is cloud cover. I think we have lapse rates that are plenty good enough for sure. It's funny because I think last night the HRRR runs were having random cells moving through SNE all morning.

The situation this afternoon is going to be pretty tough...this is why the SPC held off on going moderate. This is where we actually probably want a downsloping flow, at least for a few hours just so we can dry things out a bit and get some more sun in here.

Looking at some things too I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if some locations kept a more southerly component to their winds today, the low-level wind field isn't overly strong so 0-1km helicity might not be that great but if the 6z NAM is correct wind fields 0-3km helicity could be fairly high...this could really enhance the threat for large hail, especially if we see a few supercells.

I imagine though once that s/w energy moves away things should quiet down for a few hours at least and given how warm things are already and how warm the low-level air mass is we should warm pretty quickly.

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