powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Good discussion out of BTV regarding today's threat. FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE CONVECTIVE MODE AND TIMING...ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS. OVERALL...NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WX ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL TRACK TWD OUR WESTERN CWA BY 15Z...IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLW. MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE...WHILE NOSE OF 25H JET WL PROMOTE FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE ACRS OUR REGION. THESE TWO LIFTING MECHANISMS...COMBINED WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -4C AND -6C...SUPPORTS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. BEST 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR WL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...WHERE 850MB WINDS WL BE BTWN 25 AND 35KNTS...700MB VALUES BTWN 30 AND 40 KNTS...AND 500MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNTS. GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND INVESTIGATING THERMAL PROFILES...FEEL MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE WL BE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WL BE POSSIBLE...WHERE TRRN TURNS THE LLVL FLW MORE SOUTHERLY...LIKE THE CPV AND UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...WITH LARGE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL THE SECONDARY THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWN POURS AS PW VALUES ARE BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75". FEEL CONVECTION WL FIRST DEVELOP ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 15Z-17Z...THEN TRACK INTO THE CPV BY EARLY AFTN...AND THRU VT BY 21Z...AS BEST LLVL INSTABILITY IS PUSHED INTO EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT BTWN 16C AND 17C...SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 80S...FEEL LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS WL LIMIT SFC HEATING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. Supercells possible where the terrain turns the low level flow southerly... sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 CU means cumulus clouds., nice look with Sun, i know what cu means, i was just saying precip was going to miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wonder if BOX will be doing a damage assessment for a microburst? TREES DOWN, DAMAGE TO HOMES, POWER OUTAGES IN SEVERAL PROVIDENCE NEIGHBORHOODS School delayed one hour; emergency workers responding June 9, 2011 PROVIDENCE RI – High velocity straight-line winds that accompanied thunderstorms early this morning uprooted and knocked down trees, flooded roads and damaged homes in several parts of Providence. The following neighborhoods were affected by thunderstorms and straight-line winds that crossed into Providence around 3:30AM Thursday: Cranston Street, Huntington Avenue and Niantic Avenue, Dupont Drive area West Elmwood area, Melrose Street, and the Reservoir Triangle Atwells Avenue, Broadway at Service Road #7 and #8 Silver Lake: Form Union Avenue, Webster Avenue to Terrace and Pocasset and Plainfield Streets Type Damage: No reported injuries, trees down, flooded roads, moderate damage to some houses (roofs damaged by fallen trees / roofs blown off). Power: 3,000 customers are without power. National Grid is already out doing repairs. Most customers are expected to have power back by 9AM, but some could go without power for longer. Schools: Providence Schools will have a 1-hour delay. Issues: Early morning rush-hour traffic will be problematic in some parts of the city due to impassable roads. The Providence Department of Public Works and the Parks Department’s Forestry Division are removing trees. Contract trees crew are being recalled. Emergency Numbers: Stayed tuned to local broadcasts for information on storm related updates. If power outages occur, contact National Grid at 1-800-322-3223. Do not touch any downed utility lines and report them to the Fire Department at 274-3344. For trees that are not posing a safety hazard, contact the Parks Department Forestry Division at 785-9450. In the event of an emergency, call 911. Safety: Citizens are advised to stay away from downed power lines. Motorists should drive through standing water. Avoid damage areas if commuting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 First rain in weeks right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Pretty decent set of storms overnight - maybe the best since the 2006 supercell that tore up Cranston? Lots of damage to trees and property. Providence schools are on a one hour delay as they clear roads Wow looks like a microburst went right through Cranston and Providence just past 2:30AM Fox Point recorded a gust to 77mph! http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MFOXR1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wonder if BOX will be doing a damage assessment for a microburst? TREES DOWN, DAMAGE TO HOMES, POWER OUTAGES IN SEVERAL PROVIDENCE NEIGHBORHOODS School delayed one hour; emergency workers responding June 9, 2011 PROVIDENCE RI – High velocity straight-line winds that accompanied thunderstorms early this morning uprooted and knocked down trees, flooded roads and damaged homes in several parts of Providence. The following neighborhoods were affected by thunderstorms and straight-line winds that crossed into Providence around 3:30AM Thursday: Cranston Street, Huntington Avenue and Niantic Avenue, Dupont Drive area West Elmwood area, Melrose Street, and the Reservoir Triangle Atwells Avenue, Broadway at Service Road #7 and #8 Silver Lake: Form Union Avenue, Webster Avenue to Terrace and Pocasset and Plainfield Streets Type Damage: No reported injuries, trees down, flooded roads, moderate damage to some houses (roofs damaged by fallen trees / roofs blown off). Power: 3,000 customers are without power. National Grid is already out doing repairs. Most customers are expected to have power back by 9AM, but some could go without power for longer. Schools: Providence Schools will have a 1-hour delay. Issues: Early morning rush-hour traffic will be problematic in some parts of the city due to impassable roads. The Providence Department of Public Works and the Parks Department’s Forestry Division are removing trees. Contract trees crew are being recalled. Emergency Numbers: Stayed tuned to local broadcasts for information on storm related updates. If power outages occur, contact National Grid at 1-800-322-3223. Do not touch any downed utility lines and report them to the Fire Department at 274-3344. For trees that are not posing a safety hazard, contact the Parks Department Forestry Division at 785-9450. In the event of an emergency, call 911. Safety: Citizens are advised to stay away from downed power lines. Motorists should drive through standing water. Avoid damage areas if commuting. PVD fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Not for long. HUH?? Sun's out and vis sat shows E Mass socked in most of the day..but from west of ORH west plenty of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HUH?? Sun's out and vis sat shows E Mass socked in most of the day..but from west of ORH west plenty of sun I mean those clouds will clip you I think. LOL, I'm just kidding around a bit. Hopefully your minivan gets blown over to its side later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Big cool dew drop from outflow from severe to my NE, dew dropped to 64 from 68, actually feels very cool outside U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR destroys CT later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR destroys CT later on. Nice we could use the rain, what time? Evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice we could use the rain, what time? Evening? Yeah "it" is saying 5-6pm. It's just one run..could change, but it gives the idea that SNE could get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Yeah "it" is saying 5-6pm. It's just one run..could change, but it gives the idea that SNE could get whacked. What's it have for C NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 These shwrs are moving east steadily now. Hopefully sun out by 10ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR destroys CT later on. Maybe I'll get rain this time. Had a whopping .04 from both rounds yesterday/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Big cool dew drop from outflow from severe to my NE, dew dropped to 64 from 68, actually feels very cool outside U Storm Surge sent me this pic from this AM from Ledyard looking towards my workplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 What's it have for C NE? It has stuff moving through NH as well around 4-5pm. You can check it out here. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t3&run_time=09+Jun+2011+-+09Z Just choose composite reflectivity. You should never take it verbatim, but if it locks onto a trend for a few to several runs..then it may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Yeah "it" is saying 5-6pm. It's just one run..could change, but it gives the idea that SNE could get whacked. HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 This looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It has stuff moving through NH as well around 4-5pm. You can check it out here. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t3&run_time=09+Jun+2011+-+09Z Just choose composite reflectivity. You should never take it verbatim, but if it locks onto a trend for a few to several runs..then it may be onto something. Thanks.. maybe this is the day I see the first SVR of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice pics Steve P.Freak, I would enjoy a good blow, thanks for posting that. Have fun altering this quote boyzzz This would be cool to get 4+ thunderstorms in less than 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It's been a nice 12 hrs or so for RI/SE Mass and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Is that line up by Glens Falls going to minimize optimal heating/convection chances ? would seem to be into E MA around 11:00 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It's been a nice 12 hrs or so for RI/SE Mass and the Cape. yeah several good cells. all that marine air kevin was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Might get upgraded to moderate risk by 1630! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 ALB 7h-5h LR is still 8c/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Albany and Upton look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice pics Steve P.Freak, I would enjoy a good blow, thanks for posting that. Have fun altering this quote boyzzz This would be cool to get 4+ thunderstorms in less than 24 hours Don't even have to alter it. There are addiction clinics that can help you with that... just ask Tiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Albany and Upton look great. TTs of 60.7C and 59C, respectively...that's pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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