Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Watch just went up for most of NW NE.... down to S VT.... I guess the CAPES combined with Ontario complex is just too much to bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That MCS (while much less severe) is in the same place the 7/15/95 was before it entered the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Headed north Wiz? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0440.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That MCS (while much less severe) is in the same place the 7/15/95 was before it entered the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That MCS (while much less severe) is in the same place the 7/15/95 was before it entered the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Headed north Wiz? http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0440.html We'll see...that complex should come fairly close to CT...might just graze here but perhaps might go a bit into MA. Chasing tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Headed north Wiz? http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0440.html No - these will turn S... They follow a curvi-linear motion around the periphery of ridge nodes typically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Interesting SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 426 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011 NYZ006>008-082145- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 426 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE REGION... AT 425 PM A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEARING THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO JEFFERSON, AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BETWEEN 5 AND 515 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER AS THESE STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 St. Lawerence county in NY STW... winds in excess of 70 mph... is that a bow echo/comma head at the top of that line? Ogdnesburg looks like its going to get it head on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Looks like a nice book-end vorticity on the northern end of that line - Quasi Linear Convective System - nice... a.k.a. Derechio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 A little hook towards the tail end of the mcs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Looks like we're all gonna rock tonight as that complex heads into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Maybe we can look to the north and west of Watertown NY later tomorrow. I wouldn't totally rule out something tomorrow...maybe rolling into wrn areas late day. Yep. Hopefully it can manage to move ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 NAM still looks pretty good for SNE tomorrow aftn. SREFs are pretty robust as well...albeit a little slower than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 It's might becoming outflow dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 When will the watches go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 A little random cell has popped NW of ALB and become severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Possible derecho between 8-11pm for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Possible derecho between 8-11pm for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 BOX says meh...everything stays NW THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH AND WEST OF SNE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXISWHERE NO CIN AND GREATER INSTABILITY. MLCAPES UP TO 2000-2500J/KG OVER WESTERN NEW ENG BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ENOUGH CIN TO MAINTAIN CAP WHICH IS REFLECTED BY LACK OF CU ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLYTHIS EVENING THERE IS A LOW PROB AN ISOLD TSTM OR 2 COULD DEVELOPACROSS W ZONES AND LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING SO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING. NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING MCS N OF LAKE ONTARIO MOVING EWD. BULKOF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD AFFECT NW ZONES LATER TONIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTETHE GFS IS INDICATING SOME DRYING MOVING IN OVERNIGHT REFLECTED BYA MIN IN KI/TT VALUES AND DECREASING THETA-E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 I thought it was a little closer to 10K down this way? DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY TSTMS THU WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN HIGH WBZ VALUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I'm wondering if the MCS is weakening due to ingestion of more stable air from Lake Ontario or because low-level environmental wind shear isn't able to balance the cold pool shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yep. Hopefully it can manage to move ese. Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Small but potent cell just went severe N of ALB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Some of the models like HRRR earlier had some cells popping up around ALY and down through the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 There's a theta-e ridge out around ALY ... . Noting some of the middle and western section sites spiking DPs now. Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Some of the models like HRRR earlier had some cells popping up around ALY and down through the Catskills. Yeah there was definitelyna weaker cap out that way...from like rut to bgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 There's a theta-e ridge out around ALY ... . Noting some of the middle and western section sites spiking DPs now. Hm Yeah Phil and others were nothing that yesterday as a possible initiation point for some storms. It is interesting that the GFS really dries out the mid levels tonight. I'm not sure if it's right or not, but it has been a feature for the last few runs. FWIW anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yeah there was definitelyna weaker cap out that way...from like rut to bgm 00z SPC WRF FTW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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