MJW155 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It'll bring torrential rainfall to mountainous areas and drown some poor people, and blow down cardboard boxes with horse fart-velocity winds. Wake me up in September. Those of us that live in Florida need the rain. Looking forward to anything even if it's just a passing shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Pffft. Enjoy your rain, FL... HPC: TROPICS... GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE FCST TO BE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN AS OF DAY 3 THU AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYS 3-4. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A TRACK THAT IS WELL WITHIN THE BROAD SOLN ENVELOPE... WITH A REMNANT LOW CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. This is optimistic for FL folks like me enduring lengthy bone dry conditions but a huge turd for general tropical dudes and the spirit of this thread in general. Onward .... ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Going down. 1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Who cares if it forms or not. 94Ls fate has is sealed, to he shredder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Some evening thoughts on 94L... I have moved my blog over to a more well known site instead of self-hosting it, which has advantages such as enabling comments and other features. Let me know what you guys think! I'll also be updating it with a lot of new features including twitter and Facebook integration in the near future! http://philstropical....wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 This is optimistic for FL folks like me enduring lengthy bone dry conditions but a huge turd for general tropical dudes and the spirit of this thread in general. Onward .... ! Sad that all the Gulf Region from Mexico to Florida is suffering those 'bone dry conditions'. I'm afraid it will take more than one tropical event to change our drought situation in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Video from earlier this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Sad that all the Gulf Region from Mexico to Florida is suffering those 'bone dry conditions'. I'm afraid it will take more than one tropical event to change our drought situation in TX. Here in FL we are pretty much hangin our hat on the wet season .... which has not shown up as of yet, with the hope for at least a slow moving depression or TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Here in FL we are pretty much hangin our hat on the wet season .... which has not shown up as of yet, with the hope for at least a slow moving depression or TS Something like Hurricane Easy in 1950 would help end the drought. It dumped 38.70 inches of rain in 24 hours on Yankeetown Florida .That might be enough to satisfy MJW155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Larry Cosgrove on 94L.. At the same time, I will be watching what is now termed Invest 94L in the Caribbean Sea. I suspect that the disturbed area will begin to interact with the TUTT signature which brought scattered thunderstorms to the Houston metro over the past two days. 94L has shown no consistent signs of organization, and I expect nothing major in the way of development through this week. But as the two systems combine, and become locked in over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend (remembering that subtropical high draped over Texas and the Gulf Coast), then we may see something resembling a closed circulation and outflow. When the ridge collapses next week, and a trough from the West approaches, whatever is over the open water will move north, possibly involving Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi with the chances for needed heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Something like Hurricane Easy in 1950 would help end the drought. It dumped 38.70 inches of rain in 24 hours on Yankeetown Florida .That might be enough to satisfy MJW155 Nah. It's gotta be at least 40 inches. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 I think the ship has sailed and it missed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I think the ship has sailed and it missed it... the ship was the titanic as long as we have this persistent low in the western atlantic and a strong northerly upper flow up and down the east coast. just the opposite of whats needed for development in the west carib. any pro mets have any idea when this reverses? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011060706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr cant get worse than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 the ship was the titanic as long as we have this persistent low in the western atlantic and a strong northerly upper flow up and down the east coast. just the opposite of whats needed for development in the west carib. any pro mets have any idea when this reverses? http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr cant get worse than this. Rank amateur, but I'd hazard mid-August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Rank amateur, but I'd hazard mid-August... thats cutting it close. it didnt reverse last cane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 thats cutting it close. it didnt reverse last cane season. Karl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Take a look at the NAM simulated radar. It forms a system over the western Bahamas and then tracks it NNW near the FL west coast and then into the Carolinas. Simulated radar shows very organized spiral bands and a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Take a look at the NAM simulated radar. It forms a system over the western Bahamas and then tracks it NNW near the FL west coast and then into the Carolinas. Simulated radar shows very organized spiral bands and a closed circulation. Looks like poorly organized rain bands with a remnant low, maybe not even a closed surface low. And its the NAM. Florida will welcome the rain, if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Thats pretty good banding, the problem is that the NAM actually tracks the circulation over the east coast of FL and weakens it. Otherwise it looks good. It is the NAM yes, but its showed up on a few runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Thats pretty good banding, the problem is that the NAM actually tracks the circulation over the east coast of FL and weakens it. Otherwise it looks good. It is the NAM yes, but its showed up on a few runs in a row now. Comma shaped associated to an upper low...that's not tropical. And the NAM is good for tropical forecasting, but it's performance degrades and is unreliable past hour 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 NAM simulated radar at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 NAM simulated radar at hr 78 I could have posted much earlier simulated radar images such as hr 54 which shows the circulation organizing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I could have posted much earlier simulated radar images such as hr 54 which shows the circulation organizing Or you could simply stop posting...it'd have the same value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 NAM simulated radar at hr 78 for anything tropical. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yea the first thing most posters here have to learn is that the NAM is utterly useless for anything tropical related... if you put it side by side with the gfs, you can see how obnoxiously wrong it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 The guys are just gently suggesting that the NAM may not be the best model as far as tropical forecasting. Nothing personal. Oh, and if you post the Canadian, and no other model resembles it, especially with a sub 980 mb storm into NYC/New Orleans/Miami, post a smiley. I could have posted much earlier simulated radar images such as hr 54 which shows the circulation organizing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yea the first thing most posters here have to learn is that the NAM is utterly useless for anything tropical related... if you put it side by side with the gfs, you can see how obnoxiously wrong it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 All tasked RECON cancelled. Stick a fork in 94L. It's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 the pattern we are in was never favorable for development of 94L. lets wait for the low pressure in the west atlantic to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 the pattern we are in was never favorable for development of 94L. lets wait for the low pressure in the west atlantic to leave. Your right about that...A Tutt Ull was in the gulf of mexico waiting to shear the living hell out of it. ..I guess we will have to wait a little longer for the first official system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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