Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 he is right. this never had a chance with a powerful neg NAO and low pressure dominating the west atlantic, something i pointed out days ago. this will be a repeat of the nothing season of last year unless a ridge somehow locks in over the west atlantic and that strong neg NAO reverses. Dang rainstorm. Your buddy LC seems to disagree. Given up on him already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 he is right. this never had a chance with a powerful neg NAO and low pressure dominating the west atlantic, something i pointed out days ago. this will be a repeat of the nothing season of last year unless a ridge somehow locks in over the west atlantic and that strong neg NAO reverses. http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr i know jb is saying a ridge will be where the trough was last season, but there is absolutely zero sign of that now. Like Srain said, LC thinks this may be a problem for the U.S. and J.B. on twitter says this will hit Florida.. The swords have been drawn. @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Tropical Disturbance looking stronger this morning.. Should be in eastern Gulf and then affect Florida next weekend. Keep an eye on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 RECON cancelled for today: WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 06/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 06/1430Z D. 17.0N 79.5W E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 07/0600Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 07/0215Z D. 17.5N 80.0W E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Dang rainstorm. Your buddy LC seems to disagree. Given up on him already? for LC to be right the current pattern has to totally reverse. no sign of that happening. patterns normally lock in for a whole season. if this is the pattern there is a very good chance the US will be once again free and clear. i think DT also said a ridge would replace the trough this season. we will see. any pro mets foresee a pattern reversal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Like Srain said, LC thinks this may be a problem for the U.S. and J.B. on twitter says this will hit Florida.. The swords have been drawn. @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Tropical Disturbance looking stronger this morning.. Should be in eastern Gulf and then affect Florida next weekend. Keep an eye on this http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011060506&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr thats next weekend on the GFS. low pressure dominating the west atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 So things are actually right on course for what we would expect during the month of June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 if this is the pattern there is a very good chance the US will be once again free and clear. Im sure the chance's of that happening for a second year in a row are not very good statistically speaking, and this seems to be quite the normal pattern for this time of year. Allthough the summer ridge that is delivering the heat to the eastern US seems a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Enough of the Caribbean crap, where's my cape verde train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 he is right. this never had a chance with a powerful neg NAO and low pressure dominating the west atlantic, something i pointed out days ago. this will be a repeat of the nothing season of last year unless a ridge somehow locks in over the west atlantic and that strong neg NAO reverses. http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr i know jb is saying a ridge will be where the trough was last season, but there is absolutely zero sign of that now. Looks like the pattern for the next 6 months is set in stone I will try being positive. I am positive this won't develope. I'm not nearly as negative as you... as the system still has a broad llc and convection is reasonably close. It likely won't escape out of the Caribbean without getting ripped apart, but I think there is a decent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 24 hours or so. Enough of the Caribbean crap, where's my cape verde train? Feel free to return in August once we are in the climatologically favored period for Cape Verde tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The low is displaced to the west of the convection. nice outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 12z Canadian..990mb into Pensacola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks like the pattern for the next 6 months is set in stone I'm not nearly as negative as you... as the system still has a broad llc and convection is reasonably close. It likely won't escape out of the Caribbean without getting ripped apart, but I think there is a decent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 24 hours or so. Feel free to return in August once we are in the climatologically favored period for Cape Verde tropical cyclones. Well, I am not really negative on the system. I was trying some reverse psychology when it looked so anemic yesterday. I am hoping the EURO is right and that 94L does come to visit Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Up to 40 percent TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 most likely the pattern is locked through sept at least. reference last cane season where the cane season taming west atlantic trough was in place all season. reference last winter where the pattern was locked in all season. patterns lock in. if this one is locked and loaded then the united states is once again safe. This could not be any further from the truth. The Western Basin is most certainly not locked and loaded for the season. It is June 6th. When will you stop with this nonsense? It has become very tiresome and frankly very aggravating and certainly not based on any reasonable sound meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This could not be any further from the truth. The Western Basin is most certainly not locked and loaded for the season. It is June 6th. When will you stop with this nonsense? It has become very tiresome and frankly very aggravating and certainly not based on any reasonable sound meteorology. The greatest troll in weather board history does it again and again - nobody has had the longevity of Rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This could not be any further from the truth. The Western Basin is most certainly not locked and loaded for the season. It is June 6th. When will you stop with this nonsense? It has become very tiresome and frankly very aggravating and certainly not based on any reasonable sound meteorology. Agreed. It's annoying as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Gulf bound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This could not be any further from the truth. The Western Basin is most certainly not locked and loaded for the season. It is June 6th. When will you stop with this nonsense? It has become very tiresome and frankly very aggravating and certainly not based on any reasonable sound meteorology. Can't wait till she gets five posted again Looking a little better this afternoon. Still looks like the mid-level and low-level centers are still not fully aligned, but the low level circulation is diffuse enough that we could easily see a new, tighter center develop closer to the convection. Looking at a recent visible loops shows that might already be in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This could not be any further from the truth. The Western Basin is most certainly not locked and loaded for the season. It is June 6th. When will you stop with this nonsense? It has become very tiresome and frankly very aggravating and certainly not based on any reasonable sound meteorology. its possible the pattern can change. did it change last cane season? the trough locked in and stayed locked. that simply cant be argued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 its possible the pattern can change. did it change last cane season? the trough locked in and stayed locked. that simply cant be argued. Take your discussions to the Atlantic Tropical thread if you choose to rehash last year. What on earth does it have to do with 94L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Take your discussions to the Atlantic Tropical thread if you choose to rehash last year. What on earth does it have to do with 94L? as far as 94L is concerned i can see it being very similar to bonnie last season. i could see it coming onshore in the central gulf coast moving nw/wnw as a rather weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The master has spoken.. David Tolleris dont see 94L could possibly be a threat to the US David Tolleris . this aint Brain surgery... there is a MASSIVE Ocean low and deep trough off the East coast and Massive Ridge over TX and the western gulf. This weak system is not going to go INTO the ridge... it will turn move NE through eastern Cuba then out to sea he is right. this never had a chance with a powerful neg NAO and low pressure dominating the west atlantic, something i pointed out days ago. as far as 94L is concerned . i could see it coming onshore in the central gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 as far as 94L is concerned i can see it being very similar to bonnie last season. i could see it coming onshore in the central gulf coast moving nw/wnw as a rather weak system. More like Alberto, Arlene 2005, 2006 in my opinion. Ridge forces system west-northwest throughout 48 hours then later on weakness opens up and moves system into gulf of mexico into the shear zone. I agree that it will likely come ashore on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Virtually all the globals suggest a track close to Western Cuba and into the Gulf. The HWRF is alone sending 94L NE. The GFDL develops a Tropical Storm in the Gulf and turns it W/WNW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks Gulf-bound according to the latest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks Gulf-bound according to the latest models. and it would head straight into 30 kts of shear in the Southern Gulf if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The greatest troll in weather board history does it again and again - nobody has had the longevity of Rainstorm. Yep, the Energizer troll lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 94L is looking better organized http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I can't get this page to work. I am confident I see a circulation about 80 miles south of Jamaica on the visible. http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 We are desperate for some rain in Florida, hopefully it comes this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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