Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106031758 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 160N, 780W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Models du jour suggest a slow developing low the drifts NNW toward Western Cuba. The 12Z GFS doesn't do a thing with it, while the Euro, CMC and UKMET 'hint' a bit more development near the Yucatan Channel. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 There is alot of available energy with this one and there is an anticyclone developing over it. Probably has <30 % chance of becoming a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 HPC model disco ....CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOF CUBA... PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE UKMET/GFS MODELS THE LATEST NAM IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN ITS 00Z RUN BUT IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH ITS 06Z RUN AS IT VERY GRADUALLY...SOMEWHAT SPORADICALLY...LOWERS SURFACE PRES OVER CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA DAYS 2-3...SUN/MON. THE NAM FOR THOSE DAYS IS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE GFS HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF ITS CONTINUITY BY MON DAY 3. THE NEW CANADIAN GLOBAL IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DAY 3 WHILE THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY ON THE N SIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Hard to tell from 24 hour time steps. surface feature weakens and dissipates, a 500 mb remnant drifts Northwestwards with at best a weak surface reflection and maybe promises needed rain for Texas beyond 10 days,per the Euro. Maybe. Not mondo confident interpreting 24 hour time steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The model forecasts have been too fast in moving the system to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 ASCAT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 GFDL suggests no real development meandering toward the Yucatan. HWRF, on the other hand, develops a 65 kt TS heading NE. Also RECON added... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED: FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 04/2000Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 04/1630Z D. 16.0N 78.0W E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. RESOURCES PERMITTING 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Actually looking pretty good tonight. Surface reflection is still broad, but improving on microwave with some feeder bands apparent. At this point, I'm more inclined to believe this will go ahead and develop rather than not at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I suspect this will be a slow developer, if then. Still lacking moisture in the mid levels and appears to be rather broad. If consolidation can occur, then a TS is not out of the question, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 that is awful model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 94L still suffering some SW shear. Unless things change later today, I suspect RECON will be a no go. With a weaker system, the western side of track guidance would be my hunch regarding any future track for 94L. The HWRF is out to lunch as well as the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 12Z early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You probably don't want it to drift around Northeast of the Cuba, have my doubts that it would actually escape(possible Florida or Gulf impacts) as we approach July and this year's AMO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Time to put this hunk of junk out of its misery!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 As expected, RECON for today has been cancelled. Schedule for toworrow/'Monday have been tasked. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 05/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 05/1430Z D. 17.0N 78.0W E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 06/0600Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 06/0145Z D. 17.0N 78.0W E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1300Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Local professional met doesn't seem overly enthusiastic, and sees little threat to the Northwest Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Time to put this hunk of junk out of its misery!!. A negative outlook from the NHC won't make it go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 A negative outlook from the NHC won't make it go away. I will try being positive. I am positive this won't develope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Nice naked swirl, if somewhat sloppy, SSW of Jamaica. If that was under the convection, it would also be under a local min, 10 knots or less, of shear. Models have been showing dry air in the low to mid levels as an inhibiting factor for several days, NHC is mentioning that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Nice naked swirl, if somewhat sloppy, SSW of Jamaica. If that was under the convection, it would also be under a local min, 10 knots or less, of shear. Models have been showing dry air in the low to mid levels as an inhibiting factor for several days, NHC is mentioning that. I will be happy if the moisture from this mess makes it to Florida next week-end, into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 00Z RGEM 48 hour precip totals. I know the tropics is not the RGEM's specialty, but its showing a ten inch maximum in Haiti, which would certainly be devastating. Note: Time stamp on bottom of map is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Surface analysis suggest a trough across the SW Caribbean with no defined surface low. Convection is firing to the E of a very broad spin and mid level conditions have improved, but 94L still needs convection on it's western flack before any consolidation could occur and frankly, those chances do not look good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 There may be a hint of turning in the convection, suggesting maybe a mid/upper low, if that persists, maybe a more defined surface low will try to develop underneath the convection. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The master has spoken.. [/url]David Tolleris dont see 94L could possibly be a threat to the US given the overall pattern... David Tolleris Model are not very good witha weak systemn... this aint Brain surgery... there is a MASSIVE Ocean low and deep trough off the East coast and Massive Ridge over TX and the western gulf. This weak system is not going to go INTO the ridge... it will turn move NE through eastern Cuba then out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The master has spoken.. David Tolleris dont see 94L could possibly be a threat to the US given the overall pattern... David Tolleris Model are not very good witha weak systemn... this aint Brain surgery... there is a MASSIVE Ocean low and deep trough off the East coast and Massive Ridge over TX and the western gulf. This weak system is not going to go INTO the ridge... it will turn move NE through eastern Cuba then out to sea he is right. this never had a chance with a powerful neg NAO and low pressure dominating the west atlantic, something i pointed out days ago. this will be a repeat of the nothing season of last year unless a ridge somehow locks in over the west atlantic and that strong neg NAO reverses. http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr i know jb is saying a ridge will be where the trough was last season, but there is absolutely zero sign of that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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