Prelim Tornado Assessment

[Arnold214]

I read your paper again after the tornado. Man that is great stuff, I told Kev today but for the grace of God we were and especially him ,extremely lucky that west to east track was not 25 miles south.

Unless it's been a derecho, all CT EML supercell cases (I think) were north to south movers. Speaks to the importance of northwest flow aloft. June 20, 1995 was a due south mover, 7/10/89 was SSE, 8/28/73 was due south in the CT portion of the track. There are a couple of others. It's interesting.

[powderfreak]

PC the new norm, geezus, that's all you got?

I think its just that we are all amateurs and this is just a very time consuming hobby at the end of the day for a lot of us so we say whatever we want regarding the weather. But there are those red-taggers on here where this is their life. Its how they make a living and they've put tons of time, money, and energy into making a living out of what we consider a hobby. I think that's why sometimes certain comments can strike a nerve. Its easy to say certain things that disagree with the pros, but at the end of the day we just close up the laptop, while this is something they take extremely seriously and do for a living.

Please point out how that is calling anyone out? I never said anyone did their survey wrong or questioned anyone. It was my opinion. If folks get panties bunched over that..that's their problem..not mine

Yeah honestly I don't care if its a 3 or a 4 but I could see how Mike could interpret some of the posts differently. That's all.

[Ginx snewx]

Unless it's been a derecho, all CT EML supercell cases (I think) were north to south movers. Speaks to the importance of northwest flow aloft. June 20, 1995 was a due south mover, 7/10/89 was SSE, 8/28/73 was due south in the CT portion of the track. There are a couple of others. It's interesting.

Thanks, NW flow aloft, oh boy, gonna go read your posts in the severe thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

Roof was ripped off this house..These next few pics were up on a little hill that i walked up..The higher hills def had more extensive damage,in some cases catostrophic

This house was just destrpyed..Down the hill from the pic above

[CT Rain]

CT has gotten hit hard with EML events in the past - some real biggies. Thurs could be another big day although the setup doesn't look quite as good as this past week. 7-8c/km mid level lapse rates though - very anomalous.

I doubt I'll see another 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE and 300 m2/s2 0-1km helicity this year... but you never know

1998 had Memorial Day and Labor Day and a fun June event.

[CT Rain]

Unless it's been a derecho, all CT EML supercell cases (I think) were north to south movers. Speaks to the importance of northwest flow aloft. June 20, 1995 was a due south mover, 7/10/89 was SSE, 8/28/73 was due south in the CT portion of the track. There are a couple of others. It's interesting.

And then there's bizarro non-EML supercells like 10/3/1979 that moved due north with a northeast sfc wind lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am at work, prom, on my IPAD while they eat. Link is on my PC at home. Thanks I work with some very big hearts, lots done here to help storm victims over the years, hopefully the Karma comes back.

Cool... forgot it was prom season... I will find it and read it.

Can't find the paper itself (just the abstract) and it looks way over my head.

But I did watch his slideshow. Great stuff!

http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow7/Ekster%5CEML_Ekster.ppt

[Ginx snewx]

I think its just that we are all amateurs and this is just a very time consuming hobby at the end of the day for a lot of us so we say whatever we want regarding the weather. But there are those red-taggers on here where this is their life. Its how they make a living and they've put tons of time, money, and energy into making a living out of what we consider a hobby. I think that's why sometimes certain comments can strike a nerve. Its easy to say certain things that disagree with the pros, but at the end of the day we just close up the laptop, while this is something they take extremely seriously and do for a living.

Yeah honestly I don't care if its a 3 or a 4 but I could see how Mike could interpret some of the posts differently. That's all.

Freak agree man but we know it, they know it. Just saying it's silly to think JD and EL are going to take Kev or my posts and worry about it. Now if this were a pro journal site and someone questioned my integrity and professionalism I would take it offensively, other than that some non met people need to man up

[Damage In Tolland]

Another condemned house

Backyard of the above house

[CT Rain]

Unless it's been a derecho, all CT EML supercell cases (I think) were north to south movers. Speaks to the importance of northwest flow aloft. June 20, 1995 was a due south mover, 7/10/89 was SSE, 8/28/73 was due south in the CT portion of the track. There are a couple of others. It's interesting.

There were several long track F2/F3s in CT in the 50s and 60s that tracked E-W. Not sure whether they were associated with an EML though.

Wonder if it's just by chance that the big EML supercell events post 1970 have been moving south.

[Damage In Tolland]

This one struck me as I was standing there. I could just picture the family sitting there eating..It weas eerie..Noone was around..I got the hell out of there before Poltergeist got me

[CT Rain]

I'm shocked that Kevin owns a camera. Where is it when we're trying to verify his snow totals??????

Not shocked that he's posting them in the wrong thread and not the picture thread lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Not a tree was left standing..This one was breathtaking for me..and gave me a sense of what a monster this was.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm shocked that Kevin owns a camera. Where is it when we're trying to verify his snow totals??????

Not shocked that he's posting them in the wrong thread and not the picture thread lol

Dude just Rollin,well back to work with a smile LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm shocked that Kevin owns a camera. Where is it when we're trying to verify his snow totals??????

Not shocked that he's posting them in the wrong thread and not the picture thread lol

LOL..woops

[Arnold214]

I doubt I'll see another 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE and 300 m2/s2 0-1km helicity this year... but you never know

The 3000 J/KG is easier to attain in an EML environment...the 0-1 km helicity like that is harder to come by.

One other interesting thing about the Hampden County storm is that it looks to have a hail spike and a "debris spike". I don't think I've seen that before. I guess it's possible that it's a second hail spike, but don't think so. Maybe attica can clue me in.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Mikes powerpoint is just a treasure trove of EML goodness.

And Ryan's blog thingy is a good source of info on this... can we start an EML thread?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just crushed by the confluence

As I entered Holland Rd on foot..there were so many power trucks up there. I mean just convoys of them.All of those were new poles and wires they had just put up today

[

[Damage In Tolland]

A few last ones that were cool when I was there..in the 2nd one if you look closely there was a mattress or something caught in one of the trees

[Damage In Tolland]

For anyone that I offended even though there was no intent whatsoever to do that..I apologize. I would recommend growing some thicker skin though

[CT Rain]

The 3000 J/KG is easier to attain in an EML environment...the 0-1 km helicity like that is harder to come by.

One other interesting thing about the Hampden County storm is that it looks to have a hail spike and a "debris spike". I don't think I've seen that before. I guess it's possible that it's a second hail spike, but don't think so. Maybe attica can clue me in.

Nice catch!

[adamrivers]

I was on Holland road on foot for about 1/2 mile, but they wouldn't let me get to the really decimated area where we saw those videos.. Just the part I saw was surreal

Interesting.... I walked on Thursday to the garage area, but really could've driven....it wasn't even blocked off then.

[adamrivers]

For anyone that I offended even though there was no intent whatsoever to do that..I apologize. I would recommend growing some thicker skin though

Good pictures.

But I think it takes us back to the main point...there has been a lot of discussion about the warning time, EF rating, etc. the past couple days here. I think it has been good discussion and these things are worth discussing. For everyone that comes on here just to stir sh*t up by accusing or questioning something the wrong way, there are a bunch of others that are questioning because they want to know and learn....obviously I don't post here much and only do during major events as most of my time is tied up with my full time job, part time job, and small business - and I can't even read most of the maps that are posted here to be honest - but I have learned a lot the past couple days. Obviously tone is tough to distinguish on a message board but I think some people may have taken some people's comments the wrong way.

now back to the game.....go B's.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good pictures.

But I think it takes us back to the main point...there has been a lot of discussion about the warning time, EF rating, etc. the past couple days here. I think it has been good discussion and these things are worth discussing. For everyone that comes on here just to stir sh*t up by accusing or questioning something the wrong way, there are a bunch of others that are questioning because they want to know and learn....obviously I don't post here much and only do during major events as most of my time is tied up with my full time job, part time job, and small business - and I can't even read most of the maps that are posted here to be honest - but I have learned a lot the past couple days. Obviously tone is tough to distinguish on a message board but I think some people may have taken some people's comments the wrong way.

now back to the game.....go B's.

This +1000

Very good post

For future ref. anything Blizz posts is 50% sincere, 50% hype He is a good guy though

[thewxmann]

I don't see what's wrong with disagreeing with ratings, although it ought to be done in a respectful fashion.

I agree with the EF3 rating though. There are a few instances of near EF3-EF4 borderline damage that I have seen, but not many, and that is not convincing enough for me to believe it was an bonifide EF4. I am no expert but generally, the greatest rating of certainty will end up being correct. The tree damage was pretty spectacular, so I'm not discounting that this was an EF4 strength tornado at its peak - but it just did not produce convincing EF4 damage where structures were hit. (And trees can't go up to EF4.)

Regarding the pics CT Blizz posted, none of those show damage any higher than EF2 IMO.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't see what's wrong with disagreeing with ratings, although it ought to be done in a respectful fashion.

I agree with the EF3 rating though. There are a few instances of near EF3-EF4 borderline damage that I have seen, but not many, and that is not convincing enough for me to believe it was an bonifide EF4. I am no expert but generally, the greatest rating of certainty will end up being correct. The tree damage was pretty spectacular, so I'm not discounting that this was an EF4 strength tornado at its peak - but it just did not produce convincing EF4 damage where structures were hit. (And trees can't go up to EF4.)

Regarding the pics CT Blizz posted, none of those show damage any higher than EF2 IMO.

Yea Kev stated he could not get down to the worst area.

[blackjack123]

I am no expert but it is almost like tornadoes jump and skip around or there is very weak non-existent winds inside a tornado in some parts and maybe a few feet away have winds of 200mph. Consider the Winn Parish EF4 tornado on November 29, 2010. It flattened an entire home built better than code and practically swept a good part of it away but managed to only leave trees snapped or partially debarked in the same area the house was. This tornado completely debarked trees, even more so than the Winn Parish tornado, but it can only be rated EF3 because that is the highest damage indicator for trees. Maybe had a well-built home been where those trees were, this tornado would have been rated EF4. On the other hand I have heard of well-built homes being flattened or almost entirely swept away rated only F3/EF3 because certain objects in the damage path had little to no damage. Examples would be like Westminster, Texas and New Munster, Wisconsin. Once again I know very little about how well-built homes are but can only go on what the NWS says. The Westminster, Texas and New Munster tornadoes had as described by experts as decent construction so thats all I can go by. Even though I trust the expertise of those who rated those tornadoes, I cannot completely agree to these two tornadoes not being rated F4/EF4 just because some objects stayed in the direct path. Another thing a high-end EF3 tornado or stronger only accounts for about 2-3% but cause about 85-90% of all tornado fatalities. I mean yeah I can or anybody else can say that there looks like an arguement for low-end EF4 but if experts say the homes were not built well enough then it should remain an EF3 as given by them. I am guilty of being happy on higher rated events but have to remember not all things to be well-built are not always so. The people on this web page seem to have a pretty good idea on how a tornado is rated but we dont have the expertise to actually describe how well-built homes or other structures. Like I said we may say the rating could be rated higher but it isnt always going to be the case due to construction found by NWS staff and experts.

[#NoPoles]

i took a walking tour of monson yesterday and today...and drove through brimfield...very weird damge path...in monson i saw a house that was completely obliterated, and the house on the adjacent lot, not more than 100ft away, was completely untouched, not even a displaced shingle...

brimfield state forest has been annihilated...no other way to describe it...

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.2036383505174.2121556.1111800294&l=86485e7373

that's a link to check out the pics i posted on FB

[HoarfrostHubb]

i took a walking tour of monson yesterday and today...and drove through brimfield...very weird damge path...in monson i saw a house that was completely obliterated, and the house on the adjacent lot, not more than 100ft away, was completely untouched, not even a displaced shingle...

brimfield state forest has been annihilated...no other way to describe it...

http://www.facebook....94&l=86485e7373

that's a link to check out the pics i posted on FB

Greate images Diane. How were the people doing?

[ORH_wxman]

I don't see what's wrong with disagreeing with ratings, although it ought to be done in a respectful fashion.

I agree with the EF3 rating though. There are a few instances of near EF3-EF4 borderline damage that I have seen, but not many, and that is not convincing enough for me to believe it was an bonifide EF4. I am no expert but generally, the greatest rating of certainty will end up being correct. The tree damage was pretty spectacular, so I'm not discounting that this was an EF4 strength tornado at its peak - but it just did not produce convincing EF4 damage where structures were hit. (And trees can't go up to EF4.)

Regarding the pics CT Blizz posted, none of those show damage any higher than EF2 IMO.

I said this comment before but it kind of got buried....

If you have damage that is "potential" EF4 but then is decided that it doesn't quite qualify, its not as if the storm is so much less. A strong EF3 and a low-end EF4 will be very difficult or nearly impossible to distinguish to the casual eye. It usually takes digging deeper into the structural integrity of the most damaged structures and/or foliage.

The bottom line is even the best pictures won't be able to differentiate between a high end EF3 and a low end EF4 just glancing at it. They can tell us stuff like "ok, that's pretty obviously not an EF2", but when fine tuning the rating, it usually takes some more research into the integrity of the most heavily damaged structures which is where experts come in.