Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Only the official record books care if this is an ef3 or ef4. The people who were killed or have had their lives completely uprooted by the loss of a family member, a business, etc certainly don't care. They just want to pick up what's left of their lives and attempt to move on. Put yourself in the shoes of those affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 No not at all...I was just saying how tedious the process can be. I've never been on one of these evaluations, but I know some of the things that go into them. There are so many mesoscale things that can happen in tornadoes where damage can vary from EF2 to EF4 in small distances. Embedded vortices, contracting funnel..just various things that can change in a short amount of time. But based on some of the pics, I wouldn't be shocked at all if there were a pocket or two of EF4. I was reading up on ef3 vs ef4 damage on twisterdata and it seems very subtle in some cases. There were exemplar pics in lower categories that looked to my untrained eye to be worse than higher ones.... I wonder what experiences the BOX folks have had in the past with doing these types of assessments. I know the ones lately they have surveyed in New England were on the weaker end, although the one in NH a few years ago was decent sized. I assume several of the staff have worked at other offices where they do more of this. Amazing what even an EF1 can do... Give me a snowstorm any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 From Matt Noyes on NECN last night: With the Preliminary Storm Survey completed by the National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts (to see the complete findings, click here), we can more formally put the EF3 tornado from Westfield to Charlton, Massachusetts, in historical perspective. Number of tornadoes (not including EF0) in Massachusetts record, including June 1: F5/EF5: 1 F4/EF4: 2 F3/EF3: 6 F2/EF2: 35 F1/EF1: 81 Longest Tornado Path Lengths in MA Record: Worcester, 1953: 40 miles Springfield, 2011: 39 miles Worcester County, 1970: 35 miles Franklin, 1953: 28 miles Great Barrington, 1995: 11 miles Deadliest Tornadoes in MA Record: June 9, 1953: 94 (Worcester Tornado) June 1, 2011: 4 August 28, 1973: 4 May 29, 1995: 3 August 10, 1979: 2 Unquestionably, a tornado that will remain in New England's record books for decades to come. -Matt I assume he is still counting Worcester as F5... even though it is officially an F4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 No... I mean it would be good if Bill or Eleanor could say well we saw such and such which means it was EF3. We did not see any of these things...(citing EF4 requirements). Nothing official. This is not a courtroom with burden of proof requirements. Just a hobby site I can understand why they wouldn't want to though. Again, this is a very rare thing in Mass so many of us are just trying to learn. Please come down off your tropical high horse and chase a Cat 5 Kidding... I understand your point I;m heading up to Monson and Brimfield today to make my own assessment Cool. Make sure to being a qualified engineer with you! That's probably very hard to do, unless you're there. Don't forget in a tornado, you have vertical motion as well as horizontal motion. Even a very weak EF1 could flip a car over. So you have all this up and down...twisting and turning motion that makes things look much worse than straight line wind damage of the same velocity. It's a science to determine the damage....simply saying a structure turned over in its side looks like EF4 or better, is not right. That said, it looked EF3 to me, but there very well may be EF4 type stuff which could be caused by a vortex embedded in the actual tornado itself, etc. Yeah, I think this stuff is a lot more complicated than a lot of us even realize. I'd love to listen in on some of the conversations the surveyors have-- to hear their process and how they debate and resolve the borderline cases. It's fascinating stuff. No not at all...I was just saying how tedious the process can be. I've never been on one of these evaluations, but I know some of the things that go into them. There are so many mesoscale things that can happen in tornadoes where damage can vary from EF2 to EF4 in small distances. Embedded vortices, contracting funnel..just various things that can change in a short amount of time. But based on some of the pics, I wouldn't be shocked at all if there were a pocket or two of EF4. My unqualified assessment remains the same as yours-- solid EF3, though I wouldn't be shocked if they at some point reassess and say there were some EF4 pockets sprinkled in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Only the official record books care if this is an ef3 or ef4. The people who were killed or have had their lives completely uprooted by the loss of a family member, a business, etc certainly don't care. They just want to pick up what's left of their lives and attempt to move on. Put yourself in the shoes of those affected. I'm puzzled by this post. For people whose passion is weather-- i.e., those who post in this forum-- the topic of whether this was an EF3 or EF4 is highly relevant and interesting. I actually care about it. I don't see how analyzing the technical fine points of this event is somehow insensitive to storm victims-- which seems to be what you're implying. If your main interest is the victims' welfare, a technical discussion on a weather forum isn't the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm puzzled by this post. For people whose passion is weather-- i.e., those who post in this forum-- the topic of whether this was an EF3 or EF4 is highly relevant and interesting. I actually care about it. I don't see how analyzing the technical fine points of this event is somehow insensitive to storm victims-- which seems to be what you're implying. If your main interest is the victims' welfare, a technical discussion on a weather forum isn't the right place. Apparently when a tornado hits SNE 1/2 our posters turn to mush. The technical details of the storm and/or any problems with the forecast are out of bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Does anyone know what software/websites are able to show these storms in 3 dimensions? Basically pay sites or internal media ones? Dr. Forbes and several other media outlets had impressive 3D images showing the structure of the June 1 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Also to note, the assessment puts the tornado on the ground 13 minutes before the warning was issued. ESTIMATED TIME...417 PM TO 527 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Betting a dinner on whether its a 3 or 4 is wrong and if you can't see that I don't know what to say. The technical discussion is fine. The supposed issue with the forecast is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Also to note, the assessment puts the tornado on the ground 13 minutes before the warning was issued. ESTIMATED TIME...417 PM TO 527 PM EDT The tornado warning also lapsed between 5:15 and 5:17 pm. Unfortunately members of the media poorly versed in interpreting radar thought that the lapse of the warning meant the threat had passed. Several stations started to give an "all clear" from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Betting a dinner on whether its a 3 or 4 is wrong and if you can't see that I don't know what to say. The technical discussion is fine. The supposed issue with the forecast is fine. Grandpa there is no doubt that EVERYONE one here in SNE and the USA that posts on AMWX is extremly sensitive to victims of disasters, many of us have donated time and money in various ways over the years to assist them. This is a discussion board, we often talk about weather, perhaps even disasters in a off hand distant fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Grandpa there is no doubt that EVERYONE one here in SNE and the USA that posts on AMWX is extremly sensitive to victims of disasters, many of us have donated time and money in various ways over the years to assist them. This is a discussion board, we often talk about weather, perhaps even disasters in a off hand distant fashion. Good post, Steve. Hopefully we all can learn from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Grandpa there is no doubt that EVERYONE one here in SNE and the USA that posts on AMWX is extremly sensitive to victims of disasters, many of us have donated time and money in various ways over the years to assist them. This is a discussion board, we often talk about weather, perhaps even disasters in a off hand distant fashion. We are all entitled to our opinion on here. I spoke mine. No harm no foul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 More interesting to me than making bets would be to see imagery from this location. Can you share a link? Perhaps Eleanor can answer your question as to whether someone was there at that location. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/27.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Keep in mind that I just read the tornado classification definitions for the first time Wednesday....but in my opinion NWS was right in Monson, even the worst damage was EF-3....but from Dean Pond Road and the Brimfield State Forest (which was again at least 1/4 mile thick of trees blocking the road and bark stripped off trees) to Holland Road in Brimfield (and possibly beyond, that's just how far I could get) there was, if you read the definition, EF-4 damage. It is tough to distinguish by pictures..but if you were to walk personally in Monson and Brimfield, you would see the difference....Monson there was a lot more "mangling", while there was a lot more "flattening" in Brimfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Keep in mind that I just read the tornado classification definitions for the first time Wednesday....but in my opinion NWS was right in Monson, even the worst damage was EF-3....but from Dean Pond Road and the Brimfield State Forest (which was again at least 1/4 mile thick of trees blocking the road and bark stripped off trees) to Holland Road in Brimfield (and possibly beyond, that's just how far I could get) there was, if you read the definition, EF-4 damage. It is tough to distinguish by pictures..but if you were to walk personally in Monson and Brimfield, you would see the difference....Monson there was a lot more "mangling", while there was a lot more "flattening" in Brimfield. Perhaps my posts were seen as flippant but not intended with Josh, your insight here is valuable. From the pics.videos, aerials and in person reports I and some fine Mets saw it appears that this area would be a 4. Does it matter to anyone effected, hell no, does it matter to history and official records,yes. The statement says preliminary , all we are stating is that work is left to be done on it and perhaps further investigation by the pros will upgrade it. IMHO based on the new Enhanced Fujita guidelines, there appears to be 4 damage in those areas you defined so well. Josh, look through the pics/video thread at specifically Brimfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It is really hard to say if the damage is high-end EF3 or low-end EF4. I just think there more stringent on higher ratings in areas like that. I mean they have but sometimes I think they get the idea that these days tornadoes cant get that strong on the east coast and they still can. Honestly I could agree either way on a high-end EF3 or low-end EF4. Sometimes though you wish they would budge for a low-end EF4 rating for such a historical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It is really hard to say if the damage is high-end EF3 or low-end EF4. I just think there more stringent on higher ratings in areas like that. I mean they have but sometimes I think they get the idea that these days tornadoes cant get that strong on the east coast and they still can. Honestly I could agree either way on a high-end EF3 or low-end EF4. Sometimes though you wish they would budge for a low-end EF4 rating for such a historical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Keep in mind that I just read the tornado classification definitions for the first time Wednesday....but in my opinion NWS was right in Monson, even the worst damage was EF-3....but from Dean Pond Road and the Brimfield State Forest (which was again at least 1/4 mile thick of trees blocking the road and bark stripped off trees) to Holland Road in Brimfield (and possibly beyond, that's just how far I could get) there was, if you read the definition, EF-4 damage. It is tough to distinguish by pictures..but if you were to walk personally in Monson and Brimfield, you would see the difference....Monson there was a lot more "mangling", while there was a lot more "flattening" in Brimfield. Good post, Adam. With my own eyes I saw EF-3 damage in Monson. I was unable to get to more seriously damaged areas in Monson and Brimfield so an unable to say whether it was stronger than EF-3. Either way it doesn't matter. It was a long track strong tornado that was absolutely devastating over the entire length of Hampden County. I'm looking forward to going back and studying this storm. edit: should say doesn't not does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 That video where the very excited young man climbs out of the rubble is incredible, to live through that and shoot vid as the tornado pulls away, wow, anyway you stack it 3 or 4 it was and is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It was def an Ef4..and we'll see that upped as it should be..Just like Joplin was It's a done deal dude. The survey team had at least one wind expert/damage survey expert who came in for this survey (and also happens to be a personal friend of mine). I spoke with him last night about the survey and high-end EF-3 it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Good post, Adam. With my own eyes I saw EF-3 damage in Monson. I was unable to get to more seriously damaged areas in Monson and Brimfield so an unable to say whether it was stronger than EF-3. Either way it does matter. It was a long track strong tornado that was absolutely devastating over the entire length of Hampden County. I'm looking forward to going back and studying this storm. I probably should also note that the reason why I say it probably wasn't more than EF-3 damage in Monson is because if you were to look at the area where the tornado tracked (from the west at Ely Road, down into the center of town, over towards Bethany Road and Stewart Avenue, and eventually over the mountain at East Hill Road towards Brimfield) is that in the areas that had been visibly torn of their foliage, the newer homes were all standing, and many older ones were still standing. Were there foundations ripped off, roofs missing? Yes....but it seemed just by looking at the foundations and prior Google imagery that those were older homes and we can guess that since they were in the same area some were better constructed than others. With the exception of the subdivision at the top of Stewart Road on the ridge facing the center of town, most of the neighborhoods the tornado went through in Monson were older ones. The infamous house that flipped over was next to a newer one that had only the exterior walls ripped off on the far east side of the house, yet the foliage on both sides of both houses was pretty equally gone. You will also notice that the house across the street which was older, like many in the neighborhood, had windows blown out on the front side, had part of its roof taken off, but was still standing and appeared to be structurally sound. As well in a different picture I took, at the intersection of Bethany and Stewart, was an older house than the one across the street here, and had an upper exterior wall and part of the roof completely gone - but otherwise was still standing and appeared to be structurally sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It's a done deal dude. The survey team had at least one wind expert/damage survey expert who came in for this survey (and also happens to be a personal friend of mine). I spoke with him last night about the survey and high-end EF-3 it is. Thank you for putting an end to the speculation. Thank you for your hard work and dedication too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Perhaps my posts were seen as flippant but not intended with Josh, your insight here is valuable. From the pics.videos, aerials and in person reports I and some fine Mets saw it appears that this area would be a 4. Does it matter to anyone effected, hell no, does it matter to history and official records,yes. The statement says preliminary , all we are stating is that work is left to be done on it and perhaps further investigation by the pros will upgrade it. IMHO based on the new Enhanced Fujita guidelines, there appears to be 4 damage in those areas you defined so well. Josh, look through the pics/video thread at specifically Brimfield. Hey, Steve-- I checked out the Brimfield stuff and it is really impressive, I have to say. The flipped cars and destruction of buildings are whatever from a Fujita perspective-- it doesn't need to be a maxi tornado to do that stuff, especially if the buildings weren't so solid-- but the snapped-off/stripped trees really caught my eye. That video where the very excited young man climbs out of the rubble is incredible, to live through that and shoot vid as the tornado pulls away, wow, anyway you stack it 3 or 4 it was and is amazing. Can you share the link to this video, specifically? The video thread is really long-- a ton of material-- so it's hard to find stuff. It's a done deal dude. The survey team had at least one wind expert/damage survey expert who came in for this survey (and also happens to be a personal friend of mine). I spoke with him last night about the survey and high-end EF-3 it is. Very interesting. It's good to hear this straight from the source. Tell me, did he specifically look at the Brimfield damage and, if so, did he have any comments about it? I notice the survey doesn't say too much about the damage in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Hey, Steve-- I checked out the Brimfield stuff and it is really impressive, I have to say. The flipped cars and destruction of buildings are whatever from a Fujita perspective-- it doesn't need to be a maxi tornado to do that stuff, especially if the buildings weren't so solid-- but the snapped-off/stripped trees really caught my eye. Can you share the link to this video, specifically? The video thread is really long-- a ton of material-- so it's hard to find stuff. Very interesting. It's good to hear this straight from the source. Tell me, did he specifically look at the Brimfield damage and, if so, did he have any comments about it. I notice the survey doesn't say too much about the damage in that area. Brimfield video And Josh, that was my question too. Did they spend time walking around Brimfield? I have driven past that garage in the video (and took pictures of it Thursday too) hundreds of times on the way back and forth to Holland, where I spent a lot of time in high school as three different friends of mine families' had summer houses there. Someone posted a street view shot here of it too from Google. That wasn't an easy building to take down, and the trees around it were all at least partially stripped of their bark. It really doesn't matter to me, the families that lost everything, or any of the people affected by this tragedy whether it was an EF3, EF4, EF0 for all they care. But I think for history's sake, it is important to get such a tragic event right in the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It's a done deal dude. The survey team had at least one wind expert/damage survey expert who came in for this survey (and also happens to be a personal friend of mine). I spoke with him last night about the survey and high-end EF-3 it is. Did you get to take part in the Maine survey the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Brimfield video And Josh, that was my question too. Did they spend time walking around Brimfield? I have driven past that garage in the video (and took pictures of it Thursday too) hundreds of times on the way back and forth to Holland, where I spent a lot of time in high school as three different friends of mine families' had summer houses there. Someone posted a street view shot here of it too from Google. That wasn't an easy building to take down, and the trees around it were all at least partially stripped of their bark. It really doesn't matter to me, the families that lost everything, or any of the people affected by this tragedy whether it was an EF3, EF4, EF0 for all they care. But I think for history's sake, it is important to get such a tragic event right in the history books. Thanks for the link-- it's very interesting video, to see it all from the P.O.V. of someone as they're coming out from under the wreckage. You really get a good understanding of how completely stunned they must have felt. An engineer would be best to determine the quality of those buildings-- and stripped/debarked trees, as others have pointed out, can occur in EF3 winds. All of this having been said, it's extreme damage, for sure, and I would be interested in hearing some remarks or analysis of this particular location from one of the surveyors. Perhaps Arnold214 can ask his friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Did you get to take part in the Maine survey the other day? I didn't. I almost took part in the BOX survey but had to be up here for a shift early the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Thanks for the link-- it's very interesting video, to see it all from the P.O.V. of someone as they're coming out from under the wreckage. You really get a good understanding of how completely stunned they must have felt. An engineer would be best to determine the quality of those buildings-- and stripped/debarked trees, as others have pointed out, can occur in EF3 winds. All of this having been said, it's extreme damage, for sure, and I would be interested in hearing some remarks or analysis of this particular location from one of the surveyors. Perhaps Arnold214 can ask his friend? I'm going to defer to JoeD or others that looked at the damage personally. I don't have all the details about what they saw in that particular area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm going to defer to JoeD or others that looked at the damage personally. I don't have all the details about what they saw in that particular area. JoeD was on the survey? Oh, very cool!! I didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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