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Prelim Tornado Assessment


Turtle

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Hi gang!

They say that patience is a virtue. Well, info will be coming out shortly.

My boss got back a little while ago after doing a detailed aerial survey of the path of the tornadoes. Again, all I have to say is...simply AMAZING!!!

Once it's posted, will post it here.

--Turtle ;)

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As promised, guys...here you go...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1002 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...THREE TORNADOES CONFIRMED ON JUNE 1 2011 IN MASSACHUSETTS...

...EF3 TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON...

LOCATION...WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON IN HAMPDEN AND WORCESTER COUNTIES

DATE...JUNE 1 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...417 PM TO 527 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...160 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...ONE HALF MILE

PATH LENGTH...39.0 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.10N / 72.75W

ENDING LAT/LON...42.10N / 71.99W

* FATALITIES...4

* INJURIES...200

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS

STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS

CONFIRMED AN EF3 TORNADO FROM WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON MASSACHUSETTS

ON JUNE 1 2011.

A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM STRENGTHENED AND PRODUCED A LONG-

LIVED...VERY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO...THAT DID EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NOTED NOT ONLY FOR ITS INTENSITY...BUT ALSO FOR

THE LENGTH OF THE CONTINUOUS DAMAGE PATH...APPROXIMATELY 39 MILES.

THE TORNADO WAS ALSO VERY WIDE AT SOME POINTS...REACHING A MAXIMUM

WIDTH OF ONE-HALF MILE.

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN THE MUNGER HILL SECTION OF

WESTFIELD WITH DAMAGE MAINLY LIMITED TO TREES...MANY UPROOTED AND

SNAPPED. THE ROOF OF MUNGER HILL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WAS ALSO

DAMAGED. THE TORNADO RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED INTO WEST

SPRINGFIELD. THE TORNADO CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO INDUSTRIAL

BUILDINGS AND HOMES. SEVERAL BUILDINGS HAD THEIR ROOFS REMOVED BY

THE TORNADO...A FEW STRUCTURES COLLAPSED...AND SEVERAL MULTI-

STORY BUILDINGS LOST THEIR UPPER STORIES.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THE MEMORIAL

AVENUE BRIDGE AND INTO THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD. HERE THE TORNADO

PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA

WITH MANY HOMES DESTROYED. IN ADDITION COMMERCIAL BRICK BUILDINGS

SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE. ROOFS WERE REMOVED FROM MANY OF THESE

LARGE COMMERCIAL STRUCTURES. THE TORNADO ALSO PRODUCED SEVERE

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO TOWN HOMES AND APARTMENTS NEAR SPRINGFIELD

COLLEGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED MOVING EAST INTO THE ISLAND POND

SECTION OF SPRINGFIELD...WHERE CATHEDRAL HIGH SCHOOL SUSTAINED

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...AND MANY HOMES IN THIS PART THE CITY WERE

COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH WILBRAHAM NEAR THE

WILBRAHAM-HAMPDEN TOWN LINE PRODUCING NEARLY COMPLETE

DEFORESTATION AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARBY STRUCTURES.

THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE

TOWN OF MONSON. IN MONSON WIDESPREAD DAMAGE OCCURRED TO COMMERCIAL

AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS...WITH MANY HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

THE ROOF OF MONSON HIGH SCHOOL WAS DESTROYED. FORESTED PARTS OF

TOWN EXPERIENCED NEARLY COMPLETE DEFORESTATION AND IN SOME

LOCATIONS TREE BARK WAS STRIPPED FROM REMAINING TRUNKS.

THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS THE BRIMFIELD STATE FOREST WHERE IT

REACHED IT MAXIMUM WIDTH OF APPROXIMATELY ONE-HALF MILE. ADDITIONAL

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED BOTH TO STRUCTURES AND FORESTED AREAS

FOR MANY MILES BEFORE THE TORNADO REACHED THE SOUTHBRIDGE AIRPORT.

HERE NUMEROUS AIRCRAFT WERE LIFTED OFF THE GROUND AND INTO THE

WOODS EAST OF THE AIRPORT.

THE TORNADO THEN MOVED EAST BEFORE LIFTING IN THE SOUTHWEST PART

OF CHARLTON.

&&

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN WILBRAHAM...

LOCATION...WILBRAHAM IN HAMPDEN COUNTY

DATE...JUNE 1 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...632 PM TO 640 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...3.6 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.14N / 72.48W

ENDING LAT/LON...42.15N / 72.40W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS

STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS

CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO IN WILBRAHAM ON JUNE 1 2011.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED THAT AN EF1

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WILBRAHAM. THE TORNADO

CONTINUED EAST CROSSING MAIN STREET AND MOUNTAIN ROAD...BUT

REMAINED SOUTH OF ROUTE 20. MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS TO TREES WITH

LARGE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF...AS WELL AS NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED.

SEVERAL WERE UPROOTED.

&&

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN NORTH BRIMFIELD...

LOCATION...NORTH BRIMFIELD IN HAMPDEN COUNTY

DATE...JUNE 1 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...654 PM TO 657 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...1.3 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.14N / 72.23W

ENDING LAT/LON...42.15N / 72.20W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS

STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS

CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO IN NORTH BRIMFIELD ON JUNE 1 2011.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED THAT A SECOND EF1

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NORTH OF BRIMFIELD WEST OF ROUTE 19. THIS

TORNADO CROSSED ROUTE 19 AND LIFTED NEAR TOWER HILL ROAD. THE

DAMAGE WAS SURVEYED ON THE GROUND AND BY AIRCRAFT. THE DAMAGE

CONSISTED OF TREES WITH LARGE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF...AS WELL AS

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED...A FEW OF WHICH WERE UPROOTED. THIS TORNADO

IS FROM THE SAME PARENT THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED THE TORNADO IN

NORTH WILBRAHAM.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/BOX.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO

THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.

EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.

EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.

EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.

EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.

EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE VARIOUS STATE

AND LOCAL AGENCIES AND THE CIVIL AIR PATROL FOR ALL OF THEIR

ASSISTANCE IN COMPLETING THESE STORM SURVEYS.

$$

THOMPSON/MANNING/DELLICARPINI/DUNHAM/DOODY/VALLIER-TALBOT/MCCORMICK

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Amazing....what does it take to "STRIP BARK OFF THE REMAINING TRUNKS". What does it take to scour pavement up for that matter.

In 1980 I watched a tornado do major damage to downtown Kalamazoo, Michigan. I watched that from about 8 citty blocks away on the south side of the storm, just before the RFD and golf-ball-sized hail forced me to take cover. I was grounded for 2 weeks for that little stunt of storm chasing.

There's nothing that compares to the majesty of all that power; you almost feel embarressed to be aforded existence while in its company. I imagine someone out there around Springfield, or Monson Mass, thought the same things I did when I saw an F3 tornado eviscerate brick buildings.

I always found it awesome how such an omnipotent force has such a limited lease on time, yet a something as fragile as the mind that observes it may surpass 80 years of life.

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4 in Brimfield at Hallow Rd.

It was def an Ef4..and we'll see that upped as it should be..Just like Joplin was

I trust the NWS and the professionally-qualified surveyors who looked at the damage firsthand and rated it EF3.

The initial Joplin EF4 rating was positioned as very preliminary, and it was obvious they were probably going to up the estimate when they picked an initial value of 198 mph. With this survey, if they felt it was that borderline, I feel they would have said 165 mph, and there would be some mention of the suspect areas in the discussion.

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It was def an Ef4..and we'll see that upped as it should be..Just like Joplin was

Why will it be upgraded, because you want to verify your call?

The hard working and underpaid NWS mets spent two full days working on this report so they clearly wanted it to be as accurate as possible. We had one of the mets who did the survey post the final report who didn't say anything about it changing. Its a powerful EF3.

EDIT: Sorry, it does say preliminary, appology for that, but the rest stands.

I would like Turtle to go into detail about the evidence.

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Why will it be upgraded, because you want to verify your call?

The hard working and underpaid NWS mets spent two full days working on this report so they clearly wanted it to be as accurate as possible. We had one of the mets who did the survey post the final report who didn't say anything about it changing. The report isn't marked as preliminary in any way and makes no mention of any other follow up coming. Its a powerful EF3.

Are you a great skier?lol

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Why will it be upgraded, because you want to verify your call?

The hard working and underpaid NWS mets spent two full days working on this report so they clearly wanted it to be as accurate as possible. We had one of the mets who did the survey post the final report who didn't say anything about it changing. The report isn't marked as preliminary in any way and makes no mention of any other follow up coming. Its a powerful EF3.

Did you read the fookin report? It says preliminary until final....

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Why will it be upgraded, because you want to verify your call?

The hard working and underpaid NWS mets spent two full days working on this report so they clearly wanted it to be as accurate as possible. We had one of the mets who did the survey post the final report who didn't say anything about it changing. The report isn't marked as preliminary in any way and makes no mention of any other follow up coming. Its a powerful EF3.

I agree with your post, except I looked at the report again, and at the top it says it is, indeed, preliminary. But, like you wrote and I wrote, there's no hint it may go higher-- for example, wording such as "at least EF3 damage" or a wind estimate at the top of EF3 (which would be 165 mph and not the chosen value of 160 mph).

It's conceivable it can change-- but my only points are 1) I trust the actual surveyors more than anyone here and 2) as of now, they give no hints of any pending upgrade.

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I trust the NWS and the professionally-qualified surveyors who looked at the damage firsthand and rated it EF3.

The initial Joplin EF4 rating was positioned as very preliminary, and it was obvious they were probably going to up the estimate when they picked an initial value of 198 mph. With this survey, if they felt it was that borderline, I feel they would have said 165 mph, and there would be some mention of the suspect areas in the discussion.

Me too but betcha a dinner either it gets upgraded or someone was not on the ground with boots on Hallow Rd in Brimfield.

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Why will it be upgraded, because you want to verify your call?

The hard working and underpaid NWS mets spent two full days working on this report so they clearly wanted it to be as accurate as possible. We had one of the mets who did the survey post the final report who didn't say anything about it changing. The report isn't marked as preliminary in any way and makes no mention of any other follow up coming. Its a powerful EF3.

It says preliminary several times dude... This is the baseline

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Perhaps laterwe can get a definitive reason why it was NOT an EF4. I would think there would need to be good evidence. Based on what many knowledgeable posters on here have seen firsthand and the pics and videos, this rating might be questionable

I think you have it reversed. There needs to be specific evidence to support EF4 (or any rating). Going by your logic, the NWS would be burdened with proving every EF0 was not an EF5. That makes no sense.

The rating must be supported with actual evidence.

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Me too but betcha a dinner either it gets upgraded or someone was not on the ground with boots on Hallow Rd in Brimfield.

More interesting to me than making bets would be to see imagery from this location. Can you share a link?

Perhaps Eleanor can answer your question as to whether someone was there at that location.

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Me too but betcha a dinner either it gets upgraded or someone was not on the ground with boots on Hallow Rd in Brimfield.

Those pics and videos are sick. Can you tell me what specifically points to that being EF4 damage vs EF3. My knowledge of severe is worse than my knowledge of Jeter's defensive skill level.

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I think you have it reversed. There needs to be specific evidence to support EF4 (or any rating). Going by your logic, the NWS would be burdened with proving every EF0 was not an EF5. That makes no sense.

The rating must be supported with actual evidence.

No... I mean it would be good if Bill or Eleanor could say well we saw such and such which means it was EF3. We did not see any of these things...(citing EF4 requirements). Nothing official. This is not a courtroom with burden of proof requirements. Just a hobby site

I can understand why they wouldn't want to though. Again, this is a very rare thing in Mass so many of us are just trying to learn. Please come down off your tropical high horse and chase a Cat 5

Kidding... I understand your point

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More interesting to me than making bets would be to see imagery from this location. Can you share a link?

Perhaps Eleanor can answer your question as to whether someone was there at that location.

There are videos and pics in the video and pic thread. I think it was a car dealership. Destroyed with huge damage all around

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Those pics and videos are sick. Can you tell me what specifically points to that being EF4 damage vs EF3. My knowledge of severe is worse than my knowledge of Jeter's defensive skill level.

That's probably very hard to do, unless you're there. Don't forget in a tornado, you have vertical motion as well as horizontal motion. Even a very weak EF1 could flip a car over. So you have all this up and down...twisting and turning motion that makes things look much worse than straight line wind damage of the same velocity. It's a science to determine the damage....simply saying a structure turned over in its side looks like EF4 or better, is not right. That said, it looked EF3 to me, but there very well may be EF4 type stuff which could be caused by a vortex embedded in the actual tornado itself, etc.

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That's probably very hard to do, unless you're there. Don't forget in a tornado, you have vertical motion as well as horizontal motion. Even a very weak EF1 could flip a car over. So you have all this up and down...twisting and turning motion that makes things look much worse than straight line wind damage of the same velocity. It's a science to determine the damage....simply saying a structure turned over in its side looks like EF4 or better, is not right. That said, it looked EF3 to me, but there very well may be EF4 type stuff which could be caused by a vortex embedded in the actual tornado itself, etc.

Thanks Scott. You are very patient

Hope I am not coming off sounding like a jerk. I trust the NWS

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I;m heading up to Monson and Brimfield today to make my own assessment

:lol:

It's all preliminary I suppose, but doesn't sound like they're considering any additional upgrade. Though it's clear there's a bit of a debate within the NWS, considering their hedging in the first summary.

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Thanks Scott. You are very patient

Hope I am not coming off sounding like a jerk. I trust the NWS

No not at all...I was just saying how tedious the process can be. I've never been on one of these evaluations, but I know some of the things that go into them. There are so many mesoscale things that can happen in tornadoes where damage can vary from EF2 to EF4 in small distances. Embedded vortices, contracting funnel..just various things that can change in a short amount of time. But based on some of the pics, I wouldn't be shocked at all if there were a pocket or two of EF4.

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